As time progresses and my doubts remain more or less as foggy as before, I ponder that the root cause is that EM is not JUST creating a new car design, but also trying to (re)invent a "new" supply chain and "new" distribution chain.
Fact is,
- Elio Motors is NOT the first company to produce a reasonable, safe, 3 wheeled autocycle design.
- Elio Motors is NOT the first company to try to force suppliers to talk to one another and design for systems-level production.
- Elio Motors is NOT the first company to distribute like they propose--scooter manufacturers do something quite similar, although Elio may be unique in partnering with a parts supplier rather than a dealer network for warranty work. (Although many urban scooter stores function on a similar business model in that they make most of their profits by parts and service and little by sales).
- Elio Motors is NOT the first 'widget' manufacturer to try to 'telescopic production' where the rolling body-in-white (center of the autocycle, basically) is manufactured in a centralized facility and the "other parts" are tacked on in remote locations--although Elio Motors may be unique in having no finished goods quality assurance inspections or reveiws--or they will have to outsource their trust to a 19 year old Pep Boys kid to do it for them.
BUT, Elio Motors IS the first company to try to do all 3 at one time. Paul and company believe this is necessary to make the whole enterprise work. They are probably right, so many things have to shake out toward "optimal" and not just "good enough" to pull this one off; and THAT is why I think investors shy away.
EM has to validate the process with inline QA checks and finished goods QA checks--it's going to be interesting to see how they jump that hurdle given that they will have no 'eyes on' of each vehicle's final build, personally.
- Some ideas:
- Heavy dependence on instructional videos for assembly and test.
- Send one custom, double-blind 'QA car' to each Pep Boys location every 25 site sales. After they assemble, have the delivery driver send it to one 'super trusted' facility who has an Elio Motors Employed QA inspector/auditor.
- Design in as much Poka Yoka as possible: do not use bolts requiring torque specifications or special installation aids. Use torque-to-yield one time 'stretch bolts'
- Upside-improves QA out the the door.
- Downside-means it's more likely the owner will screw up basic maintenance and not replace a "must replace" bolt.
I GET IT, but investors apparently don't.
I agree with your premise that the basic ideas EM is using are not unique but instead they are combining many ideas to create both a new vehicle and the infrastructure needed to design, test, build, distribute, and support the new vehicle for as little cost as possible. Using a three wheeled vehicle platform for an inexpensive yet practical vehicle is obviously not unique. We have also found several examples not only from small manufacturers but also from the likes of Tesla and GM in Brazil where these companies are currently successfully using similar methods for designing and distributing vehicles.
I don't understand why you think EM has no direct finished goods QA or where Pep boys fits in before final customer delivery. I think you may be confused in Pep Boys role but they are solely the after sale service provider so while training and checking up on them would be a good thing they are not involved in the production process.
EM's production and distribution plan is to produce the core vehicles at the Shreveport plant, where I am sure they will undergo various QA steps before being shipped on, then these vehicles are shipped to various EM operated distribution centers throughout the country where they wait until an order is placed before options are installed to order by EM personnel at the distribution center. The vehicle is then prepped and should undergo a final QA before being loaded and delivered to the end customer most likely at the EM retail store. It is a safe bet that the Shreveport plant complex will also contain one of the finishing/distribution centers to handle factory delivery orders and vehicles bound for surrounding states as well as all orders placed by reservation holders for first year delivery.
By the way it is my opinion that the finishing/distribution center that is part of the Shreveport plant complex is the limiting factor in how many vehicles EM can deliver in the first year to reservation holders. While the plant is supposed to be able to produce 250K base vehicles per year it would stand to reason that the Shreveport finishing/distribution center would only be designed to handle a fraction of that. This also matches up well with the 40K or 50K number we keep hearing as estimates for the number of vehicles to be produced in the first year as the rest of the vehicles produced in subsequent years will be handled by the other finishing/distribution centers spread throughout the country.
Where I disagree with you is the idea that investors don't get it. While it is entirely possible that some investors don't get it there are also likely to be a lot of other investors who are smart enough to figure out what EM is trying to accomplish. Personally what I believe is making it the most difficult for raising money is the same issue many ideas in search of investors have which is that investors need to have confidence that the people involved in the project can actually follow through with their ideas in a realistic way which actually has a chance to turn a profit some day. The good news on this front is that convincing investors gets easier as the project moves further along as this proves to investors they can do what they said they can do. So as EM is able to raise the money needed to further develop the vehicle, and the infrastructure needed to produce and distribute the vehicles, it gets much easier to raise money to complete the project. This is why to me the last investment round of $30 million which is supposed to fund the vehicle development to completion is a huge milestone. It is much easier to convince someone to give you money to tool up a factory to produce a vehicle which is already developed and undergoing final development testing in advance of production. It is also easier when you have several real fully operational pre-production vehicles with a full parts list and preliminary suppliers agreements as well as a lease on a production facility so you can show investors an accurate breakdown of exactly how much it will cost to build each vehicle.
I believe the reservations most of us here have on the vehicles also play a much bigger role than many have realized as not only do the reservations prove there is interest to potential investors and ensure the production line will stay online for at least the first year but more importantly all these vehicles which are being sold without all the extra overhead of an entire network of distribution and sales centers actually gives EM the margin they need to pay to set up the sales and distribution system and an extra year of time to do so. This year of reservation production also gives EM a ready made network of rolling billboards which will make it much easier to gain traction when the big mass marketing campaign kicks off to get people on to the web site and in to the sales centers to buy these vehicles.
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