Ekh
Elio Addict
Excellent analysis.I seem to remember several classifications of four-wheel vehicles, including Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (up to 25 mph and Low-Speed Vehicles (up to 32 mph) that were born out of the golf car industry, modified to achieve higher speeds. Top speed was critical because it classified the vehicle for mandatory crash protection. As speeds went up, seat belts, rollover protection, and even crush zones became mandatory - each with an impact on cost. These were originally intended for use in gated communities - some even had provisions to selectively limit speed so they could drive to the country club, select "cart" mode, and travel on the course as a speed-limited golf cart. The sight of one of these in my neighborhood lead me about a year ago to start looking at alternative commuter vehicles, in the process of which I discovered Elio Motors.
With the exception of EM, most makers were developing products for use in suburbia, where traffic congestion was minimal and the vehicle would serve nicely to run around neighborhood for light shopping or other errands. Most of these vehicles, because of their speed limitations were electric - a good choice for low-cost reliability. But DOT standards are MUCH higher once a vehicle is capable of speeds over 35 mph. Now, all kinds of safety equipment and crash testing are mandated by law at this level. You are traveling at speeds that can produce serious injury or death in the event of an accident.
IIHS crash testing is another expensive hurdle for a new automaker. Sure, it's not necessary for a motorcycle, so I think Paul Elio saw a loophole in the regulatory paperwork where motorcycles are not required to be crash-tested. EPA certs are much less regulated as well for motorcycles, so it was a win-win for EM that by developing a tandem vehicle, eliminating half the car, one wheel, brake, and suspension system, the cost of development and certification could be cut drastically. Conventional automakers spend untold millions on testing to qualify for sale in the US, where the Elio vehicle would work around that restriction by being registered as a motorcycle. It's all perfectly legal, but there are potential problems ahead.
EPA certification is not easy, considering the level of emissions and reliability testing required and the length of the test procedure. It's not just lengthy and difficult, it's incredibly expensive, particularly for a small, start-up manufacturer. That's why development of a proprietary engine has been critical to the process. Most small automakers opt to use an existing, fully certified engine built by one of the major automakers for just that reason. Ford, or somebody else could easily sell small engines to EM, and that would be the end of it - but there is a potential problem there. Ford would hold the future of the Elio in its hands - they might just suddenly decide NOT to sell any more engines to EM - and that would be the end of the Elio, forcing it into a sale to Ford just to get it off the market. OK, that's just a scenario, but such a hostile takeover IS possible.
If conventional automakers ever realize the Elio is a serious threat to at least the lower end of the auto market, the big guys are going to start screaming for the Elio to be regulated as a full-fledged automobile, not just a "motor vehicle". They have the money, and they can play rough. Witness the Tucker story in which a revolutionary vehicle was developed for the market - and through manipulation of the "Big 3", was put into a financial hammerlock that spawned congressional investigations, draining Tucker's cash reserves and destroying the company.
Thus far, Paul Elio has managed so far to fly under the radar of the big companies, but as release day approaches, look for that to change. But here's where PE's been smart: by doing all the primary engineering to allow the Elio to be certified as an automobile (albeit a three-wheeled one), the expensive development stuff has already been done. Crush zones, airbags, ABS, VSC, etc, are already built in to the "first article" production. Whether the Elio still slips in under the bar as a "motorcycle" by 2016 is yet to be seen, but it won't require a complete overhaul of the product to build it as an automobile. The engine, drive train, suspension, brakes, and all of the safety sub-systems are approaching completion. Small details like windshield wipers, door latches, lighting, and dozens of other details have been addressed. At this point having to cert the vehicle as an "automobile" will probably increase the cost of the Elio a bit, but it looks like practically all the expensive work has been anticipated and completed.
Whatever, it's going to be far ahead of the "Neighborhood Electric Vehicle", because it will be fully capable (and tested) for highway use, and still have the range to make it a good alternative mount for a real road trip.