Financing Elio Motors Development And Production

[Ty]

You show me the proof Elio is back on track, share the reconciliation details, show me the jobs, show me the plant modifications, etc etc.

Also, refute this assessment in detail, chief, because you seem to be internet challenged:

http://cleantechnica.com/2013/08/19/paul-elio-motors-releases-financials/

Again, present one credible source or link to just one source that says this company will make it, I'm still waiting. You only get asked twice, after that your credibility is punted to the curb.

Those numbers, though old, do actually hold up. I can fully see one person capable of selling 2 Elios per day. There isn't any haggling so there won't be all that wasted time. In fact, I think they've sold 18,000 without most of us even having been in one. And, the plant is already built, the equipment is already in place (and has been confirmed by COMAU). Suppliers are lined up... There are still a bunch of steps left but in the least, they can sell 18,000 in their first year. (and those laughable numbers, according to the author of your "source" would still add up to $18M in margin). That's something right there.

 

[Kuda]

Snipped: read other expert's informed opinions on this company outside of this forum, there are plenty to read that are versant in why this is not going to pan out, don't kid yourself.

When the Chinese circumnavigated the globe in 1421, most everyone thought the earth was flat.....................

 

[whattheelf]

Huhummmm, old news....try again! That's what you've got? EM is slowly but surely moving forward and if you don't step aside, well, you might get run over!

Well I suggested he spend his energy getting hold of EM and talk to them about saving this company from what he "envisioned" as doomed from the beginning!

When the Chinese circumnavigated the globe in 1421, most everyone thought the earth was flat.....................

Jordan Perch, an analyst with DMV.com believes that Elio’s 250,000 unit annual production plans are too ambitious, especially if only 120 dealerships will sell them. Perch went on to say, “These types of vehicles don’t have the potential to be a true and viable alternative to conventional cars, no matter how efficient or affordable they are, since there are not a lot of consumers who would be willing to drive a car that is classified as a motorcycle…” He also expressed skepticism about Elio’s safety claims with its “questionable ground clearance (5.75 inches) and tire size (15 inches)” among his concerns.

 

[Kuda]

Snipped: He also expressed skepticism about Elio’s safety claims with its “questionable ground clearance (5.75 inches) and tire size (15 inches)” among his concerns.

Again not unreasonable concerns. What isn't taken into consideration is that these issues are understood an are being dealt with. Imagine 40,000 Elios roaming the HOV lanes of the USA in 2016. That alone is advertising you can't buy. You can't calculate the universal response because there are no metrics to compare this to. It is unique to its time as the " VW Beatle: was to its time & the Model "T' was to its time yudda yudda.

 

[whattheelf]

Those numbers, though old, do actually hold up. I can fully see one person capable of selling 2 Elios per day. There isn't any haggling so there won't be all that wasted time. In fact, I think they've sold 18,000 without most of us even having been in one. And, the plant is already built, the equipment is already in place (and has been confirmed by COMAU). Suppliers are lined up... There are still a bunch of steps left but in the least, they can sell 18,000 in their first year. (and those laughable numbers, according to the author of your "source" would still add up to $18M in margin). That's something right there.

I'm not remotely convinced by the numbers, but I get and respect the sales approach, to streamline the sales process, and its not that 2 elios sold per day is out of the question, but the infrastructure, dealers, and organization behind that needs to be fully fleshed out and established well before hand. As EM has only raised upwards of 55M, they have already said they need 200M just to launch. Analysts figure that number to be about 800M too low, at a minimum.

But for what has sold so far, or has been reserved is nowhere close to the cashflow they will need to stay afloat, it can never reach profitability. I'm also not remotely convinced the plant and what it takes to automate to reach process efficiencies/costs is even a fraction of the way there, as its unclear if the plant/facility is still in flux, as last reports were EM either has some kind of partial lease on part of the plant, or maybe none altogether if you ask the parrish commissioners directly. The press releases and reports just this May suggests considerable doubt that it would be worth outfitting whatever piece of the plant with extremely pricey automation, but thats speculation, and I have no sources to even validate how the COMAU deal is being financed, but I hardly believe its being gratuitous. If the plant ends up being a partial lease that is a huge red flag sooner than even what I expected. I'd like to see how many square feet they intend to occupy, as that equates to production output capability. For a company professing to produce 250K units/yr, you need serious operations and space to accomplish that heady task, to deliver an entire 16ft long vehicle.

 

[Avards]

"As a very experienced engineer and industrial designer, within world class volume manufacturing of well known consumer products . . . ."

With particular emphasis on corporate financial management experience, Mr. whatthelf, would you please provide additional background data on the above quoted material from your statement of yesterday? Also of interest would be information as to they type of consumer products with which you were working.

Ok great, the Elio is one powerful elixir, so glad to know people are as fully informed as possible before plunking down any cash!

Thank you,

wr

 

[creekstone]

Jordan Perch, an analyst with DMV.com believes...

Since you didn't provide a link, I assume you took that from Matt Keegan's Auto Trends article: http://www.autotrends.org/2014/04/28/elio-motors-nola-fact-fantasy/

Did you happen to notice the last two sentences of the article?

"...the Shreveport plant is one of the most modern of its kind (updated and expanded in 2002) and comes with more than $500 million in equipment. That’s a benefit many hope will give Elio solid footing in its quest to become the next success story in American business."

Personally, I question that $500 million figure. But the equipment HAS been purchased.

 

[whattheelf]

Again not unreasonable concerns. What isn't taken into consideration is that these issues are understood an are being dealt with. Imagine 40,000 Elios roaming the HOV lanes of the USA in 2016. That alone is advertising you can't buy. You can't calculate the universal response because there are no metrics to compare this to. It is unique to its time as the " VW Beatle: was to its time & the Model "T' was to its time yudda yudda.

I'd love to imagine such a transition, really would, as its absolutely nauseating to see so many underutilized large vehicles and SUVs commanding the roadways today. No doubt also, a certain critical mass of appearance can spur a chain reaction, the Toyota Prius achieved a similar gain in this way.

Again, the imagination and design creativity, and proof of concept is not the issue, from my experience, its all about the next business stage, execution, and the additional 150M+ of funding they need just to launch, and they are just 1/4 of the way there. I'm skeptical that just several more rounds of dog and pony shows are going to fuel a substantial investment/deposits. With operations plans also very gray, or in flux, this delays production, and delays are faith killers in the market. By the end of next year that they profess to be in "production", but by then potential buyers will have assessed other options to consider. Time to market is everything, so we'll just have to carefully watch the press releases this year to be able to fully determine what will and won't happen.

 

[JNR]

Jordan Perch, an analyst with DMV.com believes that Elio’s 250,000 unit annual production plans are too ambitious, especially if only 120 dealerships will sell them.

We get it, 250k may be too ambitious. The search function would have shown this has been hashed repeatedly before.

Perch went on to say, “These types of vehicles don’t have the potential to be a true and viable alternative to conventional cars, no matter how efficient or affordable they are.

Can you list Perch's predictions about everything auto related here so we can see how good of a hit rate he has at prognosticating the future?

 

[whattheelf]

"As a very experienced engineer and industrial designer, within world class volume manufacturing of well known consumer products . . . ."

With particular emphasis on corporate financial management experience, Mr. whatthelf, would you please provide additional background data on the above quoted material from your statement of yesterday? Also of interest would be information as to they type of consumer products with which you were working.



Thank you,

wr

My successful 28 year career, post college and grad, includes significant accomplishments and several solo and shared design patents, spanning senior roles in mechanical & industrial engineering, project management, industrial design, business process reengineering, product marketing, and strategic business development, with the latter half of my career including officer/director positions, which as you may understand already required considerable corporate finance and tax assessment, specifically as it relates to strategic M&A activity. I've been mentored and recruited into these positions across several industries from aerospace/defense, semiconductors, telecom, and consumer electronics. A fortunate trajectory that has enabled me to very comfortably retire prior to 50. Now looking at various opportunities to invest and/or help fund green energy initiatives and various endangered wildlife conservancies.