Anyone Else Think It Wont Happen?

[JEBar]

And that, I submit, is how my analysis of events makes logical sense.

while the logic is easy to follow, it does come with what seems to be a significant logical omission .... the commissioners who voted for the project have major political capital invested in its survival .... at least one member of the commission fought a court case to keep the agreement from being made .... if EM fails and if the Parish loses money, its highly likely that the commissioners who backed EM will pay a heavy price at the polls .... consequently, I can understand their motivation to do all they can to make sure EM succeeds

 

[TexasElio]

This will my last posting...

In my opinion...the Elio story has hit several major roadblocks...and will never enter production...

Too many broken promises...

I hope Mr Elio has the ethics & guts to make refunds to all deposit holders that wish to make that request...

Moderator's please remove my account...

Thanks!

 

[Bert]

So, walk away with dignity.
No longer to try to dash the hopes, dreams, and thrill of the ride, for those who remain.
The cup remains half full, still room for more, still some left for what is needed.
May your dreams be filled with never ending success at all you do.

 

[Mike W]

I looked at the heading of this thread and decided that yes, as I have stated before, that failure is always an option. So is success! We have put our money down in anticipation of that success and I'm not ready to write it off yet. There's all sorts of road blocks that are known and unknown. Just when we let our collective breath out at the announcement of the engine, the announcement of the funding hiccup came. Well, that's life. My wife and I have had quite the hiccup filled life, what do you do? Keep moving forward and see how it all plays out. Sometimes like we want, sometimes not. Right now there's no real evidence that the Elio won't be produced, just a road block to get around. What's on the other side, ahh, now that's the question. I'm not hiding behind it for fear of what's on the other side, more than likely just more road! What if TexasElio and that ilk end up being right?! Pish Posh, that's life I'm not letting him or the like ruin this adventure. So sight back, enjoy the scenery and people and let's see where this trip takes us, eh?

 

[Rickb]

This will my last posting...

Moderator's please remove my account...

Thanks!

Rickb likes this.

 

[outsydthebox]

OK...... how does it make logical sense? Let me see if I can clarify then..
If Caddo Parish decided to enforce it's option to fine the heck out of Elio for the delays, then they would be owed money by a company that isn't even a business yet and has no revenue and publically admitted financial problems. Does it sound likely they will be getting a bunch of money out of them? If the project goes under, possibly because in part they have big fines hanging over them, then the parish would almost certainly get nothing but an IOU that will never be worth more than paper. Am I wrong yet? Can I prove it? No, but that is what normally happens when municipalities are owed money by bankrupt ventures, is it not? Do you want me to send stacks of instances where exactly this has happened, or can we accept that this is the likely outcome of such a circumstance? Anyone think that's NOT what happens in almost every case? If we have to revisit that point we can do it later.
That being said, if they grant a 'generous' extension on their deal, then the Elio venture MIGHT not go belly-up, and it MIGHT actually succeed, and it MIGHT even be HUGE! If any of those things happen, then the parish gets it's money paid, the deal is solid, and it might pay them HUGE in the form of a big job-creating bohemoth. Again, is this logically incorrect?
Now, this is a bit of a guess on my part, I'll admit, but I don't believe there are a bunch of major corporations all clamoring at the gates to cut a deal for the Shreveport plant. After all, I'm pretty sure that if Honda or Ford or Kia wanted that plant, Paul Elio would NOT be holding the keys right now. No matter how much faith the council may or may not have in Paul, they would still have had to go with a 'sure thing' like Honda or some such. I'm pretty sure that Paul's project is the best offer the parish had, and had the highest CALCULATED chance of success and, consequently, pay-off, which means any other offer they got is by default LESS-GOOD, else they'd have gone with that one. Sound completely irrational? Maybe you believe municipalities typically go with the WORST-odds, long-shot, hair-brained scheme that comes across their collective desk?
Add into the calculation that a bunch of the equipment in the plant, which would likely have been part of any alternative deal, has been or is being sold for venture capitol. So now they have that additional value, perceived and real-dollar, invested by default in Paul's project. Wouldn't that make them even LESS anxious to upset Paul's apple cart? A golden goose in the bush is still worth more than a whole fist full of nuttin'. Isn't it? (Five yard penalty for excessive mixing of metaphors).
So, I hope we can at least at this point accept that the Parish would stand to loose something if this project fails. Specifically they would have plenty of egg and more than a little red ink all over their political faces, and politicians hate both. A lot. That's my opinion, naturally. Maybe they actually ENJOY that sort of thing?
Moving on to the next point is the question of what they have to loose by granting this generous extension? Seriously, what do they have to loose? I got nothing here, care to throw in some thoughts?
So to sum it all up essentially as I did before, Caddo Parish has probably nothing to gain by fines, little to loose by waiting, and possibly a big payoff to wait-and-see. That makes it their LOGICAL best course of action, and explains their actions in terms of simple, reasoned, and rational personal self-interest, which seems to be a fairly pervasive motive for most of human endeavour. The alternative explanation that the Parish leaders think the Elio is really KEEN and Paul is just a SWELL guy, passes for a somewhat less reasoned explanation in my not-so-humble opinion.
And that, I submit, is how my analysis of events makes logical sense. I must say, however, that I really did prefer the first and much less verbose version. It was far more schedule-friendly, and really, I thought the reasoning of it stood on it's own without explanation.
Now I have to add that NONE of this reflects any desire on my part for the project to fail. I am merely forced by my own sense of reason to accept that it IS one possible scenario. If I flip a coin there is a 50% chance of it landing on tales. If I wish on a star, clap my hands really loud, hold my breath, or click my heels and say "there's no place like home", the odds will NOT change one iota. So, me or you, or anyone else facing reality will not change what will happen. Or do you actually believe that the good-will-and-hope vibes of your thoughts will somehow mingle into the planetary aura and improve Paul's chance of success? LOGICALLY I have to believe that it won't help, but feel free to try.
Thanks to Outsydthebox for the intellectual challenge, and to everyone else who might actually suffer through this, I apologize!

Your intellect is truly dizzying. Are you sure you aren't Sicilian?

And to quote you..."So to sum it all up essentially as I did before, Caddo Parish has probably nothing to gain by fines, little to loose by waiting, and possibly a big payoff to wait-and-see."
I agree.
I also agree with this...."I'm pretty sure that Paul's project is the best offer the parish had, and had the highest CALCULATED chance of success and, consequently, pay-off, which means any other offer they got is by default LESS-GOOD, else they'd have gone with that one."
Timing is everything, Isn't it?

And this qoute..."Or do you actually believe that the good-will-and-hope vibes of your thoughts will somehow mingle into the planetary aura and improve Paul's chance of success?"
Now that's just silly, of course I don't. My "thoughts" cannot effect anyone but myself...that is, until I put those thoughts into action, or put them into words that motivate others to action. Adolph Hitler comes to mind. (and no, I am not likening you to Hitler).
The truth can also hurt a cause, If worded just right. The story of a famous election comes to mind: (borrowed from: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/archive/index.php/t-155203.html)

"Sometimes arcane and high-falutin’ words can be used as weapons. No one knew this better than former Senator Claude Pepper of Florida. In 1950, Pepper, a three-term incumbent, ran for re-election and faced off against Congressman George Smathers in the Democratic primary. Smathers launched an infamous smear campaign against Pepper that today sounds more like a fake political ad from Saturday Night Live.

Smathers outed Pepper as "a known extrovert," his sister as a "thespian," and his brother as a "practicing homo sapien." He accused Pepper of practicing "nepotism" with his sister-in-law and of "matriculating" with young women in college. Worst of all, he "practiced celibacy" before marriage.

Naturally, voters were horrified, and Pepper lost by over 67,000 votes."

And that's all I have to say about that.

 

[Snick]

Folks, I think you're over-analyzing things viz Caddo Parish's stance:

I think the minute Caddo Parish finds another renter for that space, they will impose fines on EMI to get them to put up or shut up. Until then, fines will be deferred. Lichter basically said exactly that--his forbearance went as far as the dollars ended.

 

[eddie66]

Folks, I think you're over-analyzing things viz Caddo Parish's stance:

I think the minute Caddo Parish finds another renter for that space, they will impose fines on EMI to get them to put up or shut up. Until then, fines will be deferred. Lichter basically said exactly that--his forbearance went as far as the dollars ended.

It isn't up to the Parrish. Stewart Licter is in charge of leasing the plant. He has said he is behind Elio, and is in fact, on the board, but at the end of the day, his final responsibility is to Caddo Parrish. They also mentioned a Japanese firm is coming to take a look at the plant early next month. I don't think Elio is in danger as long as he gets his act together in the six month extension he was granted. After that, he will be fined for not providing the 1500 jobs he promised.

 

[carzes]

Your intellect is truly dizzying. Are you sure you aren't Sicilian?

And to quote you..."So to sum it all up essentially as I did before, Caddo Parish has probably nothing to gain by fines, little to loose by waiting, and possibly a big payoff to wait-and-see."
I agree.
I also agree with this...."I'm pretty sure that Paul's project is the best offer the parish had, and had the highest CALCULATED chance of success and, consequently, pay-off, which means any other offer they got is by default LESS-GOOD, else they'd have gone with that one."
Timing is everything, Isn't it?

And this qoute..."Or do you actually believe that the good-will-and-hope vibes of your thoughts will somehow mingle into the planetary aura and improve Paul's chance of success?"
Now that's just silly, of course I don't. My "thoughts" cannot effect anyone but myself...that is, until I put those thoughts into action, or put them into words that motivate others to action. Adolph Hitler comes to mind. (and no, I am not likening you to Hitler).
The truth can also hurt a cause, If worded just right. The story of a famous election comes to mind: (borrowed from: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/archive/index.php/t-155203.html)

"Sometimes arcane and high-falutin’ words can be used as weapons. No one knew this better than former Senator Claude Pepper of Florida. In 1950, Pepper, a three-term incumbent, ran for re-election and faced off against Congressman George Smathers in the Democratic primary. Smathers launched an infamous smear campaign against Pepper that today sounds more like a fake political ad from Saturday Night Live.

Smathers outed Pepper as "a known extrovert," his sister as a "thespian," and his brother as a "practicing homo sapien." He accused Pepper of practicing "nepotism" with his sister-in-law and of "matriculating" with young women in college. Worst of all, he "practiced celibacy" before marriage.

Naturally, voters were horrified, and Pepper lost by over 67,000 votes."

And that's all I have to say about that.

That's HILARIOUS! And the real funny thing is that it would work just as well, if not better, today! That REALLY underscores my stance on the dangers of 'voting while ignorant', or VWI.
Regarding the other point, being essentially the old adage that the 'pen is mightier than the sword', I agree that there is SOME merit to the concept, but also firmly believe that no staunch advocate has ever tried it in actual combat.
Can the printed word have weight? Sure. But I don't tend to credit our little forum here with much grandiose world-changing capacity. Not to belittle anyone here by any means, I think it's a great forum for fun discussions, but in the end we are just endlessly discussing a car that has yet to be built and will likely be delayed yet another year. But that gives us plenty of time to freely get sidetracked.

 

[ehwatt]

Man, some people on here have Way too much time on their hands. Too much caffeine too, I'd reckon.