Anyone Else Think It Wont Happen?

[CompTrex]

He must be on other side of the corner of the room..

Or working on his bad-poster-eliminator-inator

 

[TexasElio]

I am open to what you think are the facts as you see them, feel free to delve, I'll just take a couple to make it easy, otherwise your statement is a straw man.

From the perspective of actually having built large complex businesses in the past, and now watching EM for yet another year tick by with not anywhere near enough secured funding, not anywhere near enough reservations, zero manufacturing plant upgrades, nearly zero hiring, with extremely slow progress and zero testing on what is an extremely risky new ground up engine platform, this company has nearly zero a chance of securing the funding it must need from the government. Keep in mind they were previously saying for the past few years prior it did not need the government loan, but now does, and just to get to launch.

The reality is the business model for this fledgling idea, was banking on a crowd sourcing phenomena which has not happened for Elio, nor will it, with just under 70K reservations maybe, with the pareto of that being well under the $1000 level. They also only have just over 200K likes on Facebook, so only a third making deposits, not any kind of indicator the numbers are nearly there to generate the kind of ongoing cash flow they would need to both justify a government loan, nor to keep their supply chain flowing efficiently and constantly.

Launching a new low budget motor car company in the USA, with a low price/profit margin, attracts only dreamers and idealists, it does not attract actual investors, and this has not changed for years now that it has been trying. They are likely nearing cash burn rate depletion, and don't be surprised that they put the blame on the government and ongoing low gas prices when this house of cards finally falls.

Again I derive no enjoyment from not seeing real innovation happen here in the US, but it takes substantially deeper pockets, not a philosophical idea, to make this happen, by a company that can sustain writing off millions for years, not a luxury EM will ever have.

Very well written...I concur with all of your comments...

Elio Motors has never been able to demonstrate they have a workable...or sustainable business model...

If there was truly any investor capitol avaible for such a poject...Mr Elio would have found it years ago...

Now that Elio Motors is operating in crisis mode...I expect to see several members of his board...and many of his so call "suppliers"...as well as "Pep Boys"...to quietly disappear...

No big announcements...just silently remove themselves from harms way...

 

[AriLea]

... Now that Elio Motors is operating in crisis mode...I expect to see several members of his board...and many of his so call "suppliers"...as well as "Pep Boys"...to quietly disappear...
No big announcements...just silently remove themselves from harms way...

That does seem like a good area to set metrics on. See what motion we find in the board, but also if they fess up and make comment.
But on the vendors? No they already were silent at a distance. The real question is if they keep sending people to the vendors meetings.
For us to have a good hook in that information we need someone that knows someone at one of the more active vendors.
I Spy, U Spy, ba-whoo-ha-ha!

 

[RUCRAYZE]

Not the "aye" thing I hope?

 

[AriLea]

Not the "aye" thing I hope?

Aye matey!
So here's the list of the suppliers I'll keep, and what they do. If there is a change, or news on the subject, at least I have the list to compare. Looking at this list, there must be some contractors too, but they would be transient like Genesis CD
Admiral Tool - tooling and processes
Dakkota Lighting Tech LLC - lighting, interior panels and assemblies
Eastern Cataltytic - cat converter and integrated manifolds, pipes and mufflers
Flame Spray Industries - engine cyclinder coatings and processes
IAV - Automotive Engineering
Peterson Spring - valve springs, suspention parts
Kiekert - latch systems
US Motor Works - cooling system water pump
D.E.S Group - Tier 1 tooling and parts
Auto Essentials Group - vehicle prototyper ( cusomization and re-styling )
Core Tech Inc - Metal and platics parts
Infinite Skyz - Skyz system supplier
Cooper Tyres - tires and
Henkel - Coatings and adhesives
Technosports Creative
Altair - Engineering
Comau - Assembly tech
Cooper Standard - Seals hoses and elastomers
Guardian - Window Glass
Halla / Mando - Brake and Suspension
Irvin - Interior Parts
N3T - Wire Harnesses
Lear Corp - Seating and Electrical
Plastics Research Corp - Body panel materials and processes
Superior Rollforming - Roll form supplier
Takata - Safety Systems supplier
Contractors or not Interdependent
Genesis Concept and Design
Elio Wear

 

[AriLea]

BTW, if the current investors and board members were worried about this not working, when they sold all that equipment, they would take the money to recoup losses and bail.
So another metric, do they reinvest in the project.?. i.e. spend money on the plant and those crash tests.

 

[carzes]

I'm sorry, but you lost me at the point about "your version making logical sense"......lol.

If you will notice (from your quote of my post) the words "I think". What I said, was never intended to be taken as anything but my opinion. Therefore, no need for me to provide proof........of my opinion.......lol

OK...... how does it make logical sense? Let me see if I can clarify then..
If Caddo Parish decided to enforce it's option to fine the heck out of Elio for the delays, then they would be owed money by a company that isn't even a business yet and has no revenue and publically admitted financial problems. Does it sound likely they will be getting a bunch of money out of them? If the project goes under, possibly because in part they have big fines hanging over them, then the parish would almost certainly get nothing but an IOU that will never be worth more than paper. Am I wrong yet? Can I prove it? No, but that is what normally happens when municipalities are owed money by bankrupt ventures, is it not? Do you want me to send stacks of instances where exactly this has happened, or can we accept that this is the likely outcome of such a circumstance? Anyone think that's NOT what happens in almost every case? If we have to revisit that point we can do it later.
That being said, if they grant a 'generous' extension on their deal, then the Elio venture MIGHT not go belly-up, and it MIGHT actually succeed, and it MIGHT even be HUGE! If any of those things happen, then the parish gets it's money paid, the deal is solid, and it might pay them HUGE in the form of a big job-creating bohemoth. Again, is this logically incorrect?
Now, this is a bit of a guess on my part, I'll admit, but I don't believe there are a bunch of major corporations all clamoring at the gates to cut a deal for the Shreveport plant. After all, I'm pretty sure that if Honda or Ford or Kia wanted that plant, Paul Elio would NOT be holding the keys right now. No matter how much faith the council may or may not have in Paul, they would still have had to go with a 'sure thing' like Honda or some such. I'm pretty sure that Paul's project is the best offer the parish had, and had the highest CALCULATED chance of success and, consequently, pay-off, which means any other offer they got is by default LESS-GOOD, else they'd have gone with that one. Sound completely irrational? Maybe you believe municipalities typically go with the WORST-odds, long-shot, hair-brained scheme that comes across their collective desk?
Add into the calculation that a bunch of the equipment in the plant, which would likely have been part of any alternative deal, has been or is being sold for venture capitol. So now they have that additional value, perceived and real-dollar, invested by default in Paul's project. Wouldn't that make them even LESS anxious to upset Paul's apple cart? A golden goose in the bush is still worth more than a whole fist full of nuttin'. Isn't it? (Five yard penalty for excessive mixing of metaphors).
So, I hope we can at least at this point accept that the Parish would stand to loose something if this project fails. Specifically they would have plenty of egg and more than a little red ink all over their political faces, and politicians hate both. A lot. That's my opinion, naturally. Maybe they actually ENJOY that sort of thing?
Moving on to the next point is the question of what they have to loose by granting this generous extension? Seriously, what do they have to loose? I got nothing here, care to throw in some thoughts?
So to sum it all up essentially as I did before, Caddo Parish has probably nothing to gain by fines, little to loose by waiting, and possibly a big payoff to wait-and-see. That makes it their LOGICAL best course of action, and explains their actions in terms of simple, reasoned, and rational personal self-interest, which seems to be a fairly pervasive motive for most of human endeavour. The alternative explanation that the Parish leaders think the Elio is really KEEN and Paul is just a SWELL guy, passes for a somewhat less reasoned explanation in my not-so-humble opinion.
And that, I submit, is how my analysis of events makes logical sense. I must say, however, that I really did prefer the first and much less verbose version. It was far more schedule-friendly, and really, I thought the reasoning of it stood on it's own without explanation.
Now I have to add that NONE of this reflects any desire on my part for the project to fail. I am merely forced by my own sense of reason to accept that it IS one possible scenario. If I flip a coin there is a 50% chance of it landing on tales. If I wish on a star, clap my hands really loud, hold my breath, or click my heels and say "there's no place like home", the odds will NOT change one iota. So, me or you, or anyone else facing reality will not change what will happen. Or do you actually believe that the good-will-and-hope vibes of your thoughts will somehow mingle into the planetary aura and improve Paul's chance of success? LOGICALLY I have to believe that it won't help, but feel free to try.
Thanks to Outsydthebox for the intellectual challenge, and to everyone else who might actually suffer through this, I apologize!

 

[AriLea]

OK...... how does it make logical sense? Let me see if I can clarify then..
If Caddo Parish decided to enforce it's option to fine the heck out of Elio for the delays, then they would be owed money by a company that isn't even a business yet and has no revenue and publically admitted financial problems. Does it sound likely they will be getting a bunch of money out of them? If the project goes under, possibly because in part they have big fines hanging over them, then the parish would almost certainly get nothing but an IOU that will never be worth more than paper. Am I wrong yet? Can I prove it? No, but that is what normally happens when municipalities are owed money by bankrupt ventures, is it not? Do you want me to send stacks of instances where exactly this has happened, or can we accept that this is the likely outcome of such a circumstance? Anyone think that's NOT what happens in almost every case? If we have to revisit that point we can do it later.
That being said, if they grant a 'generous' extension on their deal, then the Elio venture MIGHT not go belly-up, and it MIGHT actually succeed, and it MIGHT even be HUGE! If any of those things happen, then the parish gets it's money paid, the deal is solid, and it might pay them HUGE in the form of a big job-creating bohemoth. Again, is this logically incorrect?
Now, this is a bit of a guess on my part, I'll admit, but I don't believe there are a bunch of major corporations all clamoring at the gates to cut a deal for the Shreveport plant. After all, I'm pretty sure that if Honda or Ford or Kia wanted that plant, Paul Elio would NOT be holding the keys right now. No matter how much faith the council may or may not have in Paul, they would still have had to go with a 'sure thing' like Honda or some such. I'm pretty sure that Paul's project is the best offer the parish had, and had the highest CALCULATED chance of success and, consequently, pay-off, which means any other offer they got is by default LESS-GOOD, else they'd have gone with that one. Sound completely irrational? Maybe you believe municipalities typically go with the WORST-odds, long-shot, hair-brained scheme that comes across their collective desk?
Add into the calculation that a bunch of the equipment in the plant, which would likely have been part of any alternative deal, has been or is being sold for venture capitol. So now they have that additional value, perceived and real-dollar, invested by default in Paul's project. Wouldn't that make them even LESS anxious to upset Paul's apple cart? A golden goose in the bush is still worth more than a whole fist full of nuttin'. Isn't it? (Five yard penalty for excessive mixing of metaphors).
So, I hope we can at least at this point accept that the Parish would stand to loose something if this project fails. Specifically they would have plenty of egg and more than a little red ink all over their political faces, and politicians hate both. A lot. That's my opinion, naturally. Maybe they actually ENJOY that sort of thing?
Moving on to the next point is the question of what they have to loose by granting this generous extension? Seriously, what do they have to loose? I got nothing here, care to throw in some thoughts?
So to sum it all up essentially as I did before, Caddo Parish has probably nothing to gain by fines, little to loose by waiting, and possibly a big payoff to wait-and-see. That makes it their LOGICAL best course of action, and explains their actions in terms of simple, reasoned, and rational personal self-interest, which seems to be a fairly pervasive motive for most of human endeavour. The alternative explanation that the Parish leaders think the Elio is really KEEN and Paul is just a SWELL guy, passes for a somewhat less reasoned explanation in my not-so-humble opinion.
And that, I submit, is how my analysis of events makes logical sense. I must say, however, that I really did prefer the first and much less verbose version. It was far more schedule-friendly, and really, I thought the reasoning of it stood on it's own without explanation.
Now I have to add that NONE of this reflects any desire on my part for the project to fail. I am merely forced by my own sense of reason to accept that it IS one possible scenario. If I flip a coin there is a 50% chance of it landing on tales. If I wish on a star, clap my hands really loud, hold my breath, or click my heels and say "there's no place like home", the odds will NOT change one iota. So, me or you, or anyone else facing reality will not change what will happen. Or do you actually believe that the good-will-and-hope vibes of your thoughts will somehow mingle into the planetary aura and improve Paul's chance of success? LOGICALLY I have to believe that it won't help, but feel free to try.
Thanks to Outsydthebox for the intellectual challenge, and to everyone else who might actually suffer through this, I apologize!

Actually, as for me, I thought you make a good presentation of thoughts. And yes I agree, their actions do not prove they are fully confident, just that they see this as the best way forward, for now.
But their involvement is only important to us in that they do need to remain in play for ElioMotors to succeed. And that does seem stable for now. So it's going to remain a side issue, the main one being the actual funding.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

OK...... how does it make logical sense? Let me see if I can clarify then..
If Caddo Parish decided to enforce it's option to fine the heck out of Elio for the delays, then they would be owed money by a company that isn't even a business yet and has no revenue and publically admitted financial problems. Does it sound likely they will be getting a bunch of money out of them? If the project goes under, possibly because in part they have big fines hanging over them, then the parish would almost certainly get nothing but an IOU that will never be worth more than paper. Am I wrong yet? Can I prove it? No, but that is what normally happens when municipalities are owed money by bankrupt ventures, is it not? Do you want me to send stacks of instances where exactly this has happened, or can we accept that this is the likely outcome of such a circumstance? Anyone think that's NOT what happens in almost every case? If we have to revisit that point we can do it later.
That being said, if they grant a 'generous' extension on their deal, then the Elio venture MIGHT not go belly-up, and it MIGHT actually succeed, and it MIGHT even be HUGE! If any of those things happen, then the parish gets it's money paid, the deal is solid, and it might pay them HUGE in the form of a big job-creating bohemoth. Again, is this logically incorrect?
Now, this is a bit of a guess on my part, I'll admit, but I don't believe there are a bunch of major corporations all clamoring at the gates to cut a deal for the Shreveport plant. After all, I'm pretty sure that if Honda or Ford or Kia wanted that plant, Paul Elio would NOT be holding the keys right now. No matter how much faith the council may or may not have in Paul, they would still have had to go with a 'sure thing' like Honda or some such. I'm pretty sure that Paul's project is the best offer the parish had, and had the highest CALCULATED chance of success and, consequently, pay-off, which means any other offer they got is by default LESS-GOOD, else they'd have gone with that one. Sound completely irrational? Maybe you believe municipalities typically go with the WORST-odds, long-shot, hair-brained scheme that comes across their collective desk?
Add into the calculation that a bunch of the equipment in the plant, which would likely have been part of any alternative deal, has been or is being sold for venture capitol. So now they have that additional value, perceived and real-dollar, invested by default in Paul's project. Wouldn't that make them even LESS anxious to upset Paul's apple cart? A golden goose in the bush is still worth more than a whole fist full of nuttin'. Isn't it? (Five yard penalty for excessive mixing of metaphors).
So, I hope we can at least at this point accept that the Parish would stand to loose something if this project fails. Specifically they would have plenty of egg and more than a little red ink all over their political faces, and politicians hate both. A lot. That's my opinion, naturally. Maybe they actually ENJOY that sort of thing?
Moving on to the next point is the question of what they have to loose by granting this generous extension? Seriously, what do they have to loose? I got nothing here, care to throw in some thoughts?
So to sum it all up essentially as I did before, Caddo Parish has probably nothing to gain by fines, little to loose by waiting, and possibly a big payoff to wait-and-see. That makes it their LOGICAL best course of action, and explains their actions in terms of simple, reasoned, and rational personal self-interest, which seems to be a fairly pervasive motive for most of human endeavour. The alternative explanation that the Parish leaders think the Elio is really KEEN and Paul is just a SWELL guy, passes for a somewhat less reasoned explanation in my not-so-humble opinion.
And that, I submit, is how my analysis of events makes logical sense. I must say, however, that I really did prefer the first and much less verbose version. It was far more schedule-friendly, and really, I thought the reasoning of it stood on it's own without explanation.
Now I have to add that NONE of this reflects any desire on my part for the project to fail. I am merely forced by my own sense of reason to accept that it IS one possible scenario. If I flip a coin there is a 50% chance of it landing on tales. If I wish on a star, clap my hands really loud, hold my breath, or click my heels and say "there's no place like home", the odds will NOT change one iota. So, me or you, or anyone else facing reality will not change what will happen. Or do you actually believe that the good-will-and-hope vibes of your thoughts will somehow mingle into the planetary aura and improve Paul's chance of success? LOGICALLY I have to believe that it won't help, but feel free to try.
Thanks to Outsydthebox for the intellectual challenge, and to everyone else who might actually suffer through this, I apologize!

Your outline neglects political personalities and agendas, just because some might perceive it's a no brainer to keep the project moving forward, there are those who will vote to fine EM and derail the possibility of success to enhance THEIR political agenda, of which logic will play no part. I'm sure, but unknowing, that the parish elders/councilmen are not all on the same(political) page at this time, never heard of a group of elected officials all of whom would agree on anything- yea there are some exceptions. The nay-sayers will even provide an explanation why they should try to fine EM regardless- ya know- tough on a business that's costing us $, and giving an extension will cost even MORE $ and prevents us from looking for new tenants. etc. etc.
Logic and politics?? oil and water??
I hope your vision plays out for all concerned

 

[RUCRAYZE]

View attachment 4428 Did you misbehave CompTrex? I hope you are not standing in the corner of the room for goodness sake...

this might have a slight edge, but what's going on with his left hand?