Anyone Else Think It Wont Happen?

[carzes]

Are those questions or statements of fact?

"If there were legitimate credibility issues, I don't think Caddo Perish would have given them a six month extension"

Is this an opinion or statement of fact? Perhaps you have some supporting documentation? Maybe a secretly recorded audio tape from the parish offices?

You offered your interpretation of events and I simply intended to demonstrate that there is an alternate interpretation of the same situation. Despite that my version had the benefit of making logical sense instead of just blowing baseless sunshine in pleasingly inappropriate places,
I should be required to present proof? Huh?
Keep looking on the bright side.

 

[Catia]

I believe the production will happen one day as this is my hope...and hope is a good things.....don't loose the hope in EM. IT WILL HAPPEN....just be patient. even it don't happen...I still hope it will happen...no matter what the negative comment say...keep hoping and it will happen.... I do believe Paul Elio want to make it happen....just be patient... This is why I have the comment below for every comment I make....see below.....

 

[Chris F]

I have been a member of the Elio Motors Owners Association group on Facebook for about as long as I have been a member here. That group is stands out as it is the only one I know of which is only open to those who have reservations as well as a few others who were invited. The behavior on that page is much worse than anything we get on here. I see two big reasons for this, one is a very small group of reservation holders that have become disgruntled to the point that all they want to do is make a nuisance of themselves and disrupt the group instead of actually discussing various issues. The second reason is too many people who actually believe they are entitled to know every detail just because they have made a $1000 or $100 reservation. Over the last few months it got so bad that pretty much all the Elio employees who were on there, and would participate at times, have now left the group.

I wold not want to have to deal with approving people anyhow but from what I have seen closing the group would not make things any better, in term of people causing trouble, while also eliminating the interesting questions and viewpoints of people who, for various reasons, do not have reservations.

"Entitlement" is the right word, unfortunately. For some reason, some people think that, having made the $1000 all-in reservation, they are now members of Elio's board of directors. Having been involved with numerous start-up's, its always the guy with the least money at risk that causes the most problems and makes the most noise. Given that $1K is a material amount of money for some people, they ought not have put it at risk if they could not afford to lose it. I'd hate to lose it, but it won't impact my life if I do (except it will piss-off my wife to no end). We bought the right to buy a product at a discount when, as and if produced. That's all--the right to buy a possible future product and get the 50% bonus on the down payment. We didn't buy stock or make an "investment." Sort of like Indigogo, just a little more cash. The thing to do now is take a deep breath (and maybe a cold shower) and get over it. I still think Elio will produce the vehicle. I think (based on my own research and not from any inside information) Elio is a good candidate for the AVTM loan guarantee and we will get information when the DOE makes a determination and not before. When Elio meets its capital needs, it will start production. Now, they get the prototype out and drum up investment, partners and business. I went through the same thing for a computer peripheral company started by 2 buys making circuit boards in their basement. Now, 15 years later, they have 300 employees and sell millions of dollars of high value products all over the world. To accomplish this, it took years to get the money, find a location, refine prototypes, begin producing final products and market them. They almost went out of business several times before they succeeded. That, my friends, is how this works.

 

[Rickb]

Evaluating the progress to date gives me the indication that getting the Elio to market can happen, but only with the common sense knowledge that the additional funding is needed or it won't happen. If there is a good news announcement on secured funding, EP5 prototypes are built over the next 6 months with ride and drive events scheduled, and the factory is on the way to being tooled up, the 2016 on track to production statement is real. We won't have a long wait to know with certainty whether or not EM will be successful.

Although I continue to support EM, my trust in EM took a big hit with Paul Elio's statement during the CES, "we are still on track to 2015 production" followed up by the delay announcement a few days later. Elio Motors has to 'show me the money' to buy that trust back.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

Evaluating the progress to date gives me the indication that getting the Elio to market can happen, but only with the common sense knowledge that the additional funding is needed or it won't happen. If there is a good news announcement on secured funding, EP5 prototypes are built over the next 6 months with ride and drive events scheduled, and the factory is on the way to being tooled up, the 2016 on track to production statement is real. We won't have a long wait to know with certainty whether or not EM will be successful.

Although I continue to support EM, my trust in EM took a big hit with Paul Elio's statement during the CES, "we are still on track to 2015 production" followed up by the delay announcement a few days later. Elio Motors has to 'show me the money' to buy that trust back.

perfectly sums it up- well done

 

[whattheelf]

I went silent here about a year. I laid out in detail why this company had serious game ending funding problems, long before they indicated seeking out a loan from the government as their last hail mary, which is not anywhere likely to pass stage 2 of due diligence, anyways. That loan anyways was just necessary to get to launch, to deliver on the first reservation holders, and then what?

All those factory tour videos of idle hummer making equipment, and promises of resale, liquidation, revamping, etc etc., all pipe dreams. You can try to keep on driving the models endlessly on tour across America, to try and convince people, and show the most limited progress on a ground up engine design, but that's not going to drive a fraction of the hundreds and hundreds of thousands of preorders that would not only be necessary to get through Stage 2 of loan approval, but you need bonafide large backlog in order to produce anywhere near enough cash flow, just to pay back that loan. With such an inexpensive car with almost zero margin, how would EM even pay back the loan unless it could show 1M backlogged preorders?

I don't particularly enjoy seeing such an interesting little vehicle company crash and burn, but this company is a train wreck, unfortunately, but it never really had a good chance to start. Ahead, we have permutations of new vehicles coming out that will just distract future buyers away, gas prices at all time lows for at least the next few years, all new reservation killers. To introduce a real game changer in the market today, you have to have serious funding, and factories ready to go, with a company able to take on millions in debt for many years, and this is not Elio Motors, and that loan should of been pursued from the start of this tiny venture, back maybe when the level of hype and reservation rates might have convinced the government, but not now, not ever. Reservations will now plateau, and that will be it. Was a nice little dream while it lasted folks.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

I went silent here about a year. I laid out in detail why this company had serious game ending funding problems, long before they indicated seeking out a loan from the government as their last hail mary, which is not anywhere likely to pass stage 2 of due diligence, anyways. That loan anyways was just necessary to get to launch, to deliver on the first reservation holders, and then what?

All those factory tour videos of idle hummer making equipment, and promises of resale, liquidation, revamping, etc etc., all pipe dreams. You can try to keep on driving the models endlessly on tour across America, to try and convince people, and show the most limited progress on a ground up engine design, but that's not going to drive a fraction of the hundreds and hundreds of thousands of preorders that would not only be necessary to get through Stage 2 of loan approval, but you need bonafide large backlog in order to produce anywhere near enough cash flow, just to pay back that loan. With such an inexpensive car with almost zero margin, how would EM even pay back the loan unless it could show 1M backlogged preorders?

I don't particularly enjoy seeing such an interesting little vehicle company crash and burn, but this company is a train wreck, unfortunately, but it never really had a good chance to start. Ahead, we have permutations of new vehicles coming out that will just distract future buyers away, gas prices at all time lows for at least the next few years, all new reservation killers. To introduce a real game changer in the market today, you have to have serious funding, and factories ready to go, with a company able to take on millions in debt for many years, and this is not Elio Motors, and that loan should of been pursued from the start of this tiny venture, back maybe when the level of hype and reservation rates might have convinced the government, but not now, not ever. Reservations will now plateau, and that will be it. Was a nice little dream while it lasted folks.

well said, and with that said, I disagree. Without delving into the facts that might give you another perspective, and to help your position, why not come back again in a year and say "I told you so", or "I was wrong".

 

[Truett Collins]

"Mr Elio has made dozens of misleading & inaccurate statements...but most already understand the true complexion of the Elio story....Mr Elio's lack of business savvy seems to be generating lots of headlines lately...

Yet you can't link to even one example with out it being someone who claims that Mr Elio said this or said that........

 

[Jim H]

For me , the critical members provide a necessary balance . I don't think I could participate in a forum that was filled entirely of cheerleaders who choose to ignore every legitimate obstacle. I defend their right to be skeptical but draw the line at rude . Personal attacks on a message board is simply cowardly and in bad form . By and large , this is one of the most polite groups I've had the pleasure of joining. Don't change a thing .

There is a distinct difference in critical analysis and habitual negativity. I encourage critical thinking but am tired of those individuals that only have negative comments and that's why I choose to ignore them

 

[whattheelf]

well said, and with that said, I disagree. Without delving into the facts that might give you another perspective, and to help your position, why not come back again in a year and say "I told you so", or "I was wrong".

I am open to what you think are the facts as you see them, feel free to delve, I'll just take a couple to make it easy, otherwise your statement is a straw man.

From the perspective of actually having built large complex businesses in the past, and now watching EM for yet another year tick by with not anywhere near enough secured funding, not anywhere near enough reservations, zero manufacturing plant upgrades, nearly zero hiring, with extremely slow progress and zero testing on what is an extremely risky new ground up engine platform, this company has nearly zero a chance of securing the funding it must need from the government. Keep in mind they were previously saying for the past few years prior it did not need the government loan, but now does, and just to get to launch.

The reality is the business model for this fledgling idea, was banking on a crowdsourcing phenomena which has not happened for Elio, nor will it, with just under 70K reservations maybe, with the pareto of that being well under the $1000 level. They also only have just over 200K likes on Facebook, so only a third making deposits, not any kind of indicator the numbers are nearly there to generate the kind of ongoing cash flow they would need to both justify a government loan, nor to keep their supply chain flowing efficiently and constantly.

Launching a new low budget motor car company in the USA, with a low price/profit margin, attracts only dreamers and idealists, it does not attract actual investors, and this has not changed for years now that it has been trying. They are likely nearing cash burn rate depletion, and don't be surprised that they put the blame on the government and ongoing low gas prices when this house of cards finally falls.

Again I derive no enjoyment from not seeing real innovation happen here in the US, but it takes substantially deeper pockets, not a philosophical idea, to make this happen, by a company that can sustain writing off millions for years, not a luxury EM will ever have.