Anyone Else Think It Wont Happen?

[RUCRAYZE]

I am open to what you think are the facts as you see them, feel free to delve, I'll just take a couple to make it easy, otherwise your statement is a straw man.

From the perspective of actually having built large complex businesses in the past, and now watching EM for yet another year tick by with not anywhere near enough secured funding, not anywhere near enough reservations, zero manufacturing plant upgrades, nearly zero hiring, with extremely slow progress and zero testing on what is an extremely risky new ground up engine platform, this company has nearly zero a chance of securing the funding it must need from the government. Keep in mind they were previously saying for the past few years prior it did not need the government loan, but now does, and just to get to launch.

The reality is the business model for this fledgling idea, was banking on a crowdsourcing phenomena which has not happened for Elio, nor will it, with just under 70K reservations maybe, with the pareto of that being well under the $1000 level. They also only have just over 200K likes on Facebook, so only a third making deposits, not any kind of indicator the numbers are nearly there to generate the kind of ongoing cash flow they would need to both justify a government loan, nor to keep their supply chain flowing efficiently and constantly.

Launching a new low budget motor car company in the USA, with a low price/profit margin, attracts only dreamers and idealists, it does not attract actual investors, and this has not changed for years now that it has been trying. They are likely nearing cash burn rate depletion, and don't be surprised that they put the blame on the government and ongoing low gas prices when this house of cards finally falls.

Again I derive no enjoyment from not seeing real innovation happen here in the US, but it takes substantially deeper pockets, not a philosophical idea, to make this happen, by a company that can sustain writing off millions for years, not a luxury EM will ever have.

I am open to what you think are the facts as you see them, feel free to delve, I'll just take a couple to make it easy, otherwise your statement is a straw man.

From the perspective of actually having built large complex businesses in the past, and now watching EM for yet another year tick by with not anywhere near enough secured funding, not anywhere near enough reservations, zero manufacturing plant upgrades, nearly zero hiring, with extremely slow progress and zero testing on what is an extremely risky new ground up engine platform, this company has nearly zero a chance of securing the funding it must need from the government. Keep in mind they were previously saying for the past few years prior it did not need the government loan, but now does, and just to get to launch.

The reality is the business model for this fledgling idea, was banking on a crowdsourcing phenomena which has not happened for Elio, nor will it, with just under 70K reservations maybe, with the pareto of that being well under the $1000 level. They also only have just over 200K likes on Facebook, so only a third making deposits, not any kind of indicator the numbers are nearly there to generate the kind of ongoing cash flow they would need to both justify a government loan, nor to keep their supply chain flowing efficiently and constantly.

Launching a new low budget motor car company in the USA, with a low price/profit margin, attracts only dreamers and idealists, it does not attract actual investors, and this has not changed for years now that it has been trying. They are likely nearing cash burn rate depletion, and don't be surprised that they put the blame on the government and ongoing low gas prices when this house of cards finally falls.

Again I derive no enjoyment from not seeing real innovation happen here in the US, but it takes substantially deeper pockets, not a philosophical idea, to make this happen, by a company that can sustain writing off millions for years, not a luxury EM will ever have.

well said, and with that said, I disagree. Without delving into the facts that might give you another perspective, and to help your position, why not come back again in a year and say "I told you so", or "I was wrong".

 

[Snick]

It is important to keep in mind, all forums are just talk. Real opinions and resulting actions are elsewhere.

Still, where ever possible I like to see things pushed into this format, 1)Problem statement 2) Analysis 3)Positive suggested solutions.
Then the 'elsewhere activity' goes off to do it's own thing.

I do prefer that optimistic salesman ethic, problems are simply an opportunity defining the path to success. Sometimes the toughest problem is locating the key problem. Everything else is engineering, business dev, market management, fulfillment. ( the easy stuff )

And that's how I know you've never shouldered the responsibilities of operations or engineering. If it's so easy, come show me how it's done

 

[outsydthebox]

"If there were legitimate credibility issues, I don't think Caddo Perish would have given them a six month extension"

Is this an opinion or statement of fact? Perhaps you have some supporting documentation? Maybe a secretly recorded audio tape from the parish offices?

You offered your interpretation of events and I simply intended to demonstrate that there is an alternate interpretation of the same situation. Despite that my version had the benefit of making logical sense instead of just blowing baseless sunshine in pleasingly inappropriate places,
I should be required to present proof? Huh?
Keep looking on the bright side.

I'm sorry, but you lost me at the point about "your version making logical sense"......lol.

If you will notice (from your quote of my post) the words "I think". What I said, was never intended to be taken as anything but my opinion. Therefore, no need for me to provide proof........of my opinion.......lol

 

[AriLea]

And that's how I know you've never shouldered the responsibilities of operations or engineering. If it's so easy, come show me how it's done

Silly boy, that was a reversal, a joke. But no, I have not been on that type of line. I did hands on support for composites manufacturing at Boeing. Does it relate? not directly to automotive in high volume. I admit I'm a technologist able to break across specialties and solve problems. Usually working with a group of peers who are various more specialized engineering types.

 

[Anderson Howard]

I like how level headed you guys are. The are initial thoughts and then there are reflective thoughts.
Reflective seems to have the better view, as usual. That's why you get the big bucks !

The nay sayers that are worried about their investment should be offered 10 cents on a dollar for their reservation #

 

[Rickb]

I am open to what you think are the facts as you see them, feel free to delve, I'll just take a couple to make it easy, otherwise your statement is a straw man.

From the perspective of actually having built large complex businesses in the past, and now watching EM for yet another year tick by with not anywhere near enough secured funding, not anywhere near enough reservations, zero manufacturing plant upgrades, nearly zero hiring, with extremely slow progress and zero testing on what is an extremely risky new ground up engine platform, this company has nearly zero a chance of securing the funding it must need from the government. Keep in mind they were previously saying for the past few years prior it did not need the government loan, but now does, and just to get to launch.

The reality is the business model for this fledgling idea, was banking on a crowdsourcing phenomena which has not happened for Elio, nor will it, with just under 70K reservations maybe, with the pareto of that being well under the $1000 level. They also only have just over 200K likes on Facebook, so only a third making deposits, not any kind of indicator the numbers are nearly there to generate the kind of ongoing cash flow they would need to both justify a government loan, nor to keep their supply chain flowing efficiently and constantly.

Launching a new low budget motor car company in the USA, with a low price/profit margin, attracts only dreamers and idealists, it does not attract actual investors, and this has not changed for years now that it has been trying. They are likely nearing cash burn rate depletion, and don't be surprised that they put the blame on the government and ongoing low gas prices when this house of cards finally falls.

Again I derive no enjoyment from not seeing real innovation happen here in the US, but it takes substantially deeper pockets, not a philosophical idea, to make this happen, by a company that can sustain writing off millions for years, not a luxury EM will ever have.

If you don't have a pre-order deposit you've lost nothing financially speaking. If you do have a pre-order you've lost nothing because Elio motors hasn't crash and burned, but rather is still waiting on a variety of funding options to materialize. Elio staff seem to be hard a work with the funding they do have on hand and forging ahead at a slower than expected pace. You have no idea how deep the investor pockets are with your crash and burn mentality unless you sit on the Elio board of investors. So check in later this year after a few more Elio Tech Talks and progress reports. If we meet at a ride and drive event I'll by you a coffee. If there are no ride and drive events I will listen more thoughfully to your crash and burn speculation.

You have a problem with dreamers and idealists? Where would we be without dreamers and idealists? Investors can't be dreamers and idealists? If you derive no enjoyment then why the premature crash and burn, doom and gloom post? No point other than for a pure enjoyment opinion at this point in time.

 

[BlioKart]

If you don't have a pre-order deposit you've lost nothing financially speaking. If you do have a pre-order you've lost nothing because Elio motors hasn't crash and burned, but rather is still waiting on a variety of funding options to materialize. Elio staff seem to be hard a work with the funding they do have on hand and forging ahead at a slower than expected pace. You have no idea how deep the investor pockets are with your crash and burn mentality unless you sit on the Elio board of investors. So check in later this year after a few more Elio Tech Talks and progress reports. If we meet at a ride and drive event I'll by you a coffee. If there are no ride and drive events I will listen more thoughfully to your crash and burn speculation.

You have a problem with dreamers and idealists? Where would we be without dreamers and idealists? Investors can't be dreamers and idealists? If you derive no enjoyment then why the premature crash and burn, doom and gloom post? No point other than for a pure enjoyment opinion at this point in time.

Someone else posted a thread with this title Schadenfreude it perfectly describes why people do what they do

Schadenfreude- is pleasure derived from the misfortunes of others. This word is taken from German and literally means 'harm-joy.' It is the feeling of joy or pleasure when one sees another fail or suffer misfortune.

I have noticed plenty of people in life have thoughts like this. Think about it you will have met at least one person like this in your lifetime if not more.

 

[tonyspumoni]

There is ample evidence supporting the view that the Elio will be made but little to say when. The most important indicator of eventual success is the surprising degree of market appeal which, when combined with its approachable pricepoint, virtually guarantees it will reach production in some guise. These two facts place the Elio in an entirely different category of automotive startups, making comparisons to the likes of Fisker, Aptera, and Tesla - all niche market plays - irrelevant.

Paul finally admitted that his chief challenge is funding, a challenge widely discussed and generally accepted here. Did he say he could not get funding? No, he did not. What he said was that their initial model - reconditioning the surplus plant equipment and selling it - wasn't going as quickly as they had hoped.

Paul and his team are discovering that getting funding requires ceding control to capital providers, if they did not know this already, so the delay is in fact an artificially-imposed one. There will continue to be a quiet but intense dance between Paul and his team and potential investors, all of whom will demand control and most of whom will want to test the price point. For those of you who are dearly hoping for the $6800 model, a delay is a good thing not a bad one, since the further along Paul can get without taking on new investors the more likely he'll be able to execute his articulated vision. For those of you seizing on the delay as evidence that the Elio won't get to production, the level of detail provided heretofore by Elio motors makes it obvious that this is a very serious and well-conceived effort. Money will come, the only unknown being the thickness of the attached strings.

 

[ElioDigger]

I knew in the back of my mind it would be later than this year. I must be the only one who does not mind the delay...It works better for my time line..

 

[Catia]

I knew in the back of my mind it would be later than this year. I must be the only one who does not mind the delay...It works better for my time line..

More time for me too. My Chev car will be payoff September 2015, and I have already starting saving money for Elio option. By time I payoff my Chev car I can save even more..