Anyone Else Think It Wont Happen?

[tonyspumoni]

There is always a chance this won't happen - it's not like Paul is Bill f'in Gates and can just whip out Melinda's checkbook for $185 very large ones - but the odds are very, very good it will happen.

Lots of contrarian examples have been raised - the Aptera, Fisker, and that butt-ugly yellow thing two pages back. Let me just cite a single example of evidence pointing towards the evident reality of the Elio concept. Elio Motors has partnered with some very good supplier outfits, none of which would have willingly lent their good names to a mere scam. If suppliers of this quality have bought into the idea, I will take their word as evidence of the likelihood that they think this will come off and, unlike all of us, they have probably SEEN the business plan.

There are only two real issues: will EM get the bucks to go into production and if they do, when will production begin? I think it is virtually certain they get the money, but I think it less likely they can get vehicles to market by Q4, 2015. I'm thinking Q2, 2016. It would take a catastrophe for this to utterly fall apart now.

 

[Charlie G]

it's not like Paul is Bill f'in Gates and can just whip out Melinda's checkbook for $185 very large ones

Fun with numbers: Bill Gates could bankroll Elio at 185 million 410 times and still have 150 Million left over.

 

[tonyspumoni]

Only a dolt like me would reply to my own post. Yikes.

Anyway - I got to wondering if investors might be waiting for more marketing data to gauge customer sentiment? Tesla had enormous pent up demand, but that demand was based on very limited supply. As of January 2014 Tesla had sold a total of 25,000 Model S. Sales have since slowed considerably, reflecting the rather limited pool of folks willing to drop $70 - $90k on a car. It is possible that with the rather limited profit margin Paul has engineered into the Elio that $185M starts looking to investors like a pretty big number rather than a small one. Do the math. If we assume a 15% margin (very generous), each Model S nets about $10k a car, e.g. $250M over those 25k cars. Now do the same math for the Elio. Just $25M profit on 25,000 vehicles. So EM is going to HAVE to make a whopping bunch of these to pay of investors and creditors. Could be that investors are asking for more data that EM will indeed sell lots of these.

 

[tonyspumoni]

I am one degree of separation from Bill through four different people, so it's kinda funny to think about him bankrolling this. One of my pals just met with him this morning. We refer to him as the Great One, largely because of his philanthropy and his interest in funding human health concerns. Cars don't seem to fit Bill, but cars that emit less global warming gas per year than a cow has the ring of something that might actually catch his eye. That's also the reason I mentioned Melinda's checkbook, not his

Now that you mention it though, this might be just the kind of thing he would do. Bill and Warren Buffet are buddies - shared views in many ways and both are avid bridge players. If I learned that either of them were investing it wouldn't surprise me in the least. I've always said that EM is an angel investor play instead of a VC play, and these are the kind of guys Paul is surely hustling for his start-up funds. Maybe that's why Paul is really playing up the social good angle. Hadn't thought of that before.

 

[BaldGuy]

I don't understand too much about different cylinder methods. But I do hope Elio don't cut corners on the motor. I got nearly 200K on my 20 year old Ford Ranger pickup (4.0 liter) and still running fairly strong.

I don't necessary expect to get that many miles on the elio's motor, but would at least like to be able to get 10 years 100K or more. Also would be interesting if the motor would be small enough to be bought, shipped and replaced yourself. With the Kawasaki Ninja 250 (i think it was) the engine was considered a replaceable part.

 

[Smitty901]

Tesla was market to people that money is not an issue. That attacks money.
Elio is a day to working person car on a shoe string. That scares big money. 200 million is pocket change to many that have it. If you don't it is a huge amount. I sure hope ELIO makes it. I went 1000 in to do my part. I do live in the real world and know what a struggle Elio has ahead of them

 

[harlan stephens]

That ranger motor the 4 and 6 s all of them were the bomb...just ran forever.
Nothing fast or fancy. Not the greatest mpg....but boy they ran 200k when I sold mine still running great.
Replaced a fuel pump Once...that was it ...lol

 

[tonyspumoni]

Tesla was market to people that money is not an issue. That attacks money.
Elio is a day to working person car on a shoe string. That scares big money. 200 million is pocket change to many that have it. If you don't it is a huge amount. I sure hope ELIO makes it. I went 1000 in to do my part. I do live in the real world and know what a struggle Elio has ahead of them

Hmm, Smitty901. Big pockets just want a good return on equity. There are very few really good ways to turn big bucks into HFS bucks. Most angels have to invest in 10 ventures to have one hit so then need an 11-to-1 return on that one hit in order to eek out a 10% gain.

If the market is there, the idea is good, and the assembled team capable of executing, the margin per unit won't matter to them and they'll pile in. Maybe investors are worried about the real market for this. Sure - EM has 30,000 hard core adherents (us all), but are there another 30,000 after that and 30,000 more so on ad infinitum?

 

[BaldGuy]

That ranger motor the 4 and 6 s all of them were the bomb...just ran forever.
Nothing fast or fancy. Not the greatest mpg....but boy they ran 200k when I sold mine still running great.
Replaced a fuel pump Once...that was it ...lol

You sure are right about the gas miliage. Was poor brand new, and now nearly 200K later its still poor. lol My problems was the seals and body. I had to pay quite a bit to replace the different seals to keep the antifreeze from leaking out. Also they use salt here, and had to pay to replace the front and rear brackets that hold the bed on. If I lived in an area that didn't need to treat the roads, most likely would have saved on quite a few repairs.

If its still going strong when the Elio comes out, I might have to hold on to it, due to its 4WD, and I have a big jetski I pull with it to a nearby lake. But it might be dead by then. Doubt my elio could handle towing a 1000 pound jetski. But I don't ride it much, so may sell it, who knows.

 

[RKing]

Short answer, No.. It will happen some how some when. And I am patient.
On the spray bore and engine life, as if anymore needs said ; any way, spray bore Elio blocks won't (probably ever) be rebored , not worth it. Would need upsize pistons, rings ect. Also no way to economacally "reline". Just pitch it for a new crate short block, after something stupid like running out of oil/coolant or 200000+ miles, which ever comes first. that is the anty now ,and IAV will not allow their name attached to anything less. Iron liners are going out of favor ,being replaced in the "consumer"market with cast in place liners and coatings. they will probably never go out in race applications due to the easy abiliy to rebore ,hone and run another race. But a low stress "consumer" engine will wear out the car before it goes bellyup these days if maintained. I am VERY oldschool, and would personally prefer liners just due to failure mode. But I also accept that if the engine proves out on dyno testing and gets produced, I ain't gonna hurt it