Yes, it seems logical and you are spot on with the positive influences. I think all is positive with EM and the DOE at present and the P5 may just put it over the top for the ATVM loan approval in the next few months. That amount of funding will be the turning point that rallies the Elio to production.I hadn't looked at it this way, but you may really have this right. Maybe they're not dragging their feet, but are giving Elio a chance to demonstrate they can actually do the job and repay the loan.
I think key things that might positively influence DOE are 1. Successful testing of the P5, demonstrating the 75+ mpg needed to qualify. 2. The success of the crowd sourcing campaign (yes, I know they are all just expressions of interest at this point, but $25 millions worth is making a real statement). 3. The number of all-in reservations, which has increased since the app was filed last summer by about 30%. As EM says on the StartEngine campaign page, those reservations translate to FIRM ORDERS for over $290 million worth of cars. Those millions will not only pay for production for the first year, but will make a start on paying back the ATVM loan. That's serious money, and I'm sure DOE is looking hard at that.
It would help greatly if another independent source of funding were available. But we all know the challenges there, and some of the reasons Paul hasn't landed any whales. (His control needs regarding this car are off the chart -- and with some good reasons, but landing big investors ain't one of them.)
So -- maybe DOE is saying, "Give Ps a chance" and holding back their decision for positive rather than negative reasons.