Waffling On Base Price. Can They Make $6,800?

[JEBar]

the primary purpose behind the government's passage of the credits is to decrease emissions .... the auto industry's purpose is to make as big of a profit as possible .... if they could meet the standards while producing large numbers of vehicles the general public wants to buy, there would be no need for the government to impose a penalty .... for the industry, purchasing the credits has proven to be cheaper (meaning they make more profit) than it has been to expend the resources to quickly move to alternative fuel/electric vehicles and the industry doesn't much care where they can buy the cheaper credits .... if the market was there for them to make sufficient profit by developing and selling alternative fuel/electric vehicles, they would move in that direction without pressure from the government .... the reality is, at this point, a market of that size simply doesn't exist .... if high mileage three wheelers prove to be a big seller, the big outfits will most certainly try to move into that market and my bet is they will try to change the credits to where those trikes qualify for the credits so as to help out their larger more profitable vehicles

 

[Rickb]

The auto industry needs encouragement and a governmental nudge to develop new technology, provide alternative energy vehicles, increase MPG ratings, and reduce greenhouse gas emmissions. Corporate America has NOT historically done that on their own. Some don't even do it with mandates (VW Corporate executives comes to mind). Consumers would would be at the mercy of Corporate Executives and forced to take it or leave it. I don't want to be at the mercy of big auto and big oil.

 

[JEBar]

The auto industry needs encouragement and a governmental nudge to develop new technology, provide alternative energy vehicles, increase MPG ratings, and reduce greenhouse gas emmissions. Corporate America has NOT historically done that on their own. Some don't even do it with mandates (VW Corporate executives comes to mind). Consumers would would be at the mercy of Corporate Executives and forced to take it or leave it. I don't want to be at the mercy of big auto and big oil.

I couldn't agree more and am not taking a side for or against these policies or corporate America .... my point is simply that the policies are deemed necessary due to the fact that there isn't a sufficient market for the industry to produce alternative fuel/electric vehicles at a profit .... I believe that the same is true for EM type trikes .... a comparatively small company operating on highly controlled production plan may well be able to do so ....

 

[Rob Croson]

Rickb:
Get real, it will never happen.

Never is a long time.

Alternative fuel vehicles will happen because there is no other option. Oil won't last forever. It may not happen in five years (I don't think it will happen taht fast, either), but alternative fuel vehicles *will* happen, one way or another.

 

[Triangles]

Lets say the inflation on the dollar has averaged .02 percent for 5 years. That's only about $68 added to the target price. This year has averaged less than .02 percent so I don't see paying much over the original $6800. If this were a government owned company we could have started production in 2008 and supply one for free to everyone in the nation. Anyone need an Obama phone?

if you use one of the inflation calculators such as; http://www.westegg.com/inflation/ $6800 in 2008 is $7455.26 in 2014.

 

[Elio Amazed]

if you use one of the inflation calculators such as; http://www.westegg.com/inflation/ $6800 in 2008 is $7455.26 in 2014.

And it is $7515.11 as of this past Saturday. See my previous post, this thread, #47.

 

[Sethodine]

It's like the Elio price is going backwards in time.

Maybe if we wait long enough, it will get to $5000

 

[Rickb]

if you use one of the inflation calculators such as; http://www.westegg.com/inflation/ $6800 in 2008 is $7455.26 in 2014.

Yes, but EM's base target price was $7500 in '08 and deflated to the current $6800 target base. Deflation Calculator.

 

[John Painter]

Haven't they said they are already down to $7300 now?

PE said last February in his interview Tavarish they were within $500 of the target price and believed they could get there and are actively working towards reaching that goal.

 

[Ekh]

I'd make a well-informed guess of $7200 or $7300 base price when the dust settles. I think they'll honor the $6800 for all-inners, certainly SILs, but I'm guessing they'll go out the door for $7200 for everybody else. As for MPG, they think their real-world results will EXCEED 84 mpg on level, no-traffic roads, but don't know how the official testing protocol will turn out. Can't tell until the E-series actually undergo testing. The P4 is NOT intended as a test vehicle, but I wouldn't be surprised if great results on a 100-mile trip, or some such, made their way outside the firewall, formally or informally. But we're not there yet, no indeedy.

It's quite the balancing act -- predicting the price elasticity curve and how it plays against years of "we're gonna do it, 84mpg" proclamations. Would an 81mpg mileage dissuade the general public? It would disappoint many Elio believers and cheer the haters, but for the mass market? Nah, it won't make a difference. 80 mpg is HUGE.

$7,200 is affordable for many, but is definitely higher than $6,800 -- the extra digit in front is what many folks will see, without even doing the math. Yet it's such a phenomenal deal that again, most people who want the car at all are, IMO, likely to spring for the difference.

But you never know where the PE curve breaks sharply downward -- the straw that breaks the camel's back. Marketing economists specialize in predicting this, and test groups help a bundle -- (Elio has done none of that so far as I know, they've just picked a good number and done their best to meet it) -- but even so, is the price low enough and the feature set rich enough to offset the skepticism about a 3-wheel tandem runabout? They're definitely not batting zero, as the reservations and crowd funding activities show -- but they're probably not batting 1,000 if they miss their targets by very much. 10% on price might turn out to be a lot. 3% on mileage -- probably not.

We'll see -- it's exciting, that's for sure.