The Elio Engine

[RUCRAYZE]

Feel free to call me a cynic, but when someone jumps on a forum and immediately quotes anonymous negative sources in their first 5 messages, I am skeptical.

O.K. and I usually refrain, but since you offered, I do feel free "to call you a cynic"
thanks for allowing- I feel better already!

 

[outsydthebox]

But the conflict in schedule, and the implication that it was more than one person who couldn't make it two days before showtime, was more information than I needed to know, and only made it worse by that explanation.........

I can only imagine the level of frustration at EM! Time after time after time, people are squawking..." They aren't being transparent enough...I need more information...EM needs to tell us everything...the "silence" is killing me!"......

I'm sorry, but your statement lacks integrity.

 

[outsydthebox]

ok, I have read 1000+ posts on this thread - some, maybe many of the speculations have merit. I will preface this by saying I am not an optimist; I have literally been accused of being the most negative person known because I try to find all the possible failure modes before they occur! So in the spirit of hope for the best, plan for the worst, the "worst" has been pretty well covered here - including a few things that made me say "really?"

What if the stake-holders that initiated the postponement were in fact money men and the conversation went something like: "I(we) want to be there when the new engine starts so I(we) can get our pictures in so it looks like I(we) actually were involved with the concept/development (to stroke their giant egos) and after the photo session, I(we) will hand you that big, fat check..."

Please note, this is only for balance. I know it's unlikely, but it's just as possible as many of the other unfounded speculations.

I think that is entirely possible. I know it is "unusual" for politicians to go to great lengths to "capitalize" on the success of ....................o_O........Ok, back to reality.
Well said, Ocean!

 

[RUCRAYZE]

I can only imagine the level of frustration at EM! Time after time after time, people are squawking..." They aren't being transparent enough...I need more information...EM needs to tell us everything...the "silence" is killing me!"......

I'm sorry, but your statement lacks integrity.

oops! my poor sentence structure. I was trying to say EM gives out too much information, which only fuels speculation, and leave it open
i.e. had they instead said- "we are unable to demonstrate the engine today, follow our blog and watch for the re-scheduling" would, for me been more than enough (just another delay) but the rational left them WIDE open for any interpretation . I felt, it was a must do, turn the key, fire it up, and let the deep pockets come when they can for a special show. As a recent explanation from an insiderIf it was the engine company, why too had they "had" to be there? In a short time will tell one way or the other. the clock is ticking

 

[Snick]

oops! my poor sentence structure. I was trying to say EM gives out too much information, which only fuels speculation, and leave it open
i.e. had they instead said- "we are unable to demonstrate the engine today, follow our blog and watch for the re-scheduling" would, for me been more than enough (just another delay) but the rational left them WIDE open for any interpretation . I felt, it was a must do, turn the key, fire it up, and let the deep pockets come when they can for a special show. As a recent explanation from an insiderIf it was the engine company, why too had they "had" to be there? In a short time will tell one way or the other. the clock is ticking

Analysis using Occam's Razor says that the engine has issues.

You guys can go crazy speculating to the blue sky, I'm going with basic logic.

 

[goofyone]

Analysis using Occam's Razor says that the engine has issues.

You guys can go crazy speculating to the blue sky, I'm going with basic logic.

You are incorrect. In this scenario Occam's Razor would tell us to believe what EM told us in their message regarding this issue. Other scenarios could ultimately prove correct however with Occam's Razor in the absence of certainty the hypotheses with the fewest assumptions should be selected.

A scenario where the engine is having issues would take extra assumptions vs the simplest explanation which is that, as stated in the official communication, EM rescheduled the date for the official engine unveiling 'due to several key stakeholders having immovable scheduling conflicts'.

 

[Ty]

ok, I have read 1000+ posts on this thread - some, maybe many of the speculations have merit. I will preface this by saying I am not an optimist; I have literally been accused of being the most negative person known because I try to find all the possible failure modes before they occur! So in the spirit of hope for the best, plan for the worst, the "worst" has been pretty well covered here - including a few things that made me say "really?"

What if the stake-holders that initiated the postponement were in fact money men and the conversation went something like: "I(we) want to be there when the new engine starts so I(we) can get our pictures in so it looks like I(we) actually were involved with the concept/development (to stroke their giant egos) and after the photo session, I(we) will hand you that big, fat check..."

Please note, this is only for balance. I know it's unlikely, but it's just as possible as many of the other unfounded speculations.

That does actually make sense even if it is boiled down simply. Similar in thought could be someone who is on the fence and Elio wants to show them they are important enough to delay for.

 

[JEBar]

Similar in thought could be someone who is on the fence and Elio wants to show them they are important enough to delay for.

I have to admit, that one hadn't crossed my mind ..

 

[Lil4X]

OK, let's all take a breath here. We're ALL disappointed in the most recent production delay, then the delay in the unveiling of a running Elio/IAV engine. I understand, no one's more disappointed than I am, but let's back away for a moment and look at the situation. A few thoughts from a guy who spent a few years in product development:

1. We have a total start-up company here that has been to this point at least, forthcoming in all their information.
2. You and I are in on the ground floor, watching the gestation - and hopefully birth - of a revolution in transportation.
3. This is a unique situation - and a seldom offered insight into the product development process. It's not the highly-organized process you'd think. It isn't pretty, and it isn't going to BE pretty for a while yet.
   
4. Major manufacturers don't allow this kind of visibility to the process, for exactly the reasons shown here.
5. Money is always a factor in product development - especially when you have hopes, but little hard sales data to go on. It's a gamble, at best, and a scramble for resources.
   
6. Budgets flex, schedules slip, expectations rise and fall - it's all part of the process.
7. First prototypes bear little resemblance to the final product, that's why they are prototypes.
   
8. Second and third prototypes are engineering studies, still not products.
9. A production model doesn't arise until the next unit down the line is exactly like the one preceding.
10. That's when the engineering team stops tinkering and signs off on the product and that's when you can ordinarily project delivery dates, not before.

The management of this process is a huge task - it's not easy, nor is it for the faint of heart. You will have vendor issues - both of product and delivery - that have a ripple effect in your schedule. There WILL be mistakes - trust me on this. That's why we have "first production" runs of usually a hundred or two that will help de-bug both the product and the assembly process. Nothing will run smoothly for the first several weeks of production. Then, one day you hit your stride, and the big things become small inconsistencies. Then - and only then - will you have a product.

 

[Snick]

You are incorrect. In this scenario Occam's Razor would tell us to believe what EM told us in their message regarding this issue. Other scenarios could ultimately prove correct however with Occam's Razor in the absence of certainty the hypotheses with the fewest assumptions should be selected.

A scenario where the engine is having issues would take extra assumptions vs the simplest explanation which is that, as stated in the official communication, EM rescheduled the date for the official engine unveiling 'due to several key stakeholders having immovable scheduling conflicts'.

I think that is very convoluted logic. EM has not been very honest to date. What really matters is what they DO, not what they say.

Based on what they have DONE versus published commitments to self-imposed timelines, Occam's razor says the engine was not ready for prime time viewing. Having said it, I agree to disagree with you. IMO, the root cause of EM's slippage is too many admin/executive/PR/Marketing types and not enough do-ers or car guys. There's a hollow middle to their organization.

So far, I have been more right than wrong. I don't think I'll be eating any shoes or hats as promised.