Reservations: 65341 As Of 6/20/2017

[Music Man]

WOW!! I guess we can expect that to be the most avg per day? Should drop off now the 50% bonus is over, hey?

That's my thinking too, LockMD. But if those daily averages hold, WOW; We could be in for one wild ride by years end!!!

 

[Ty]

I suspect that more will be better until they reach some level of risk. The thing is the estimate of the level to reach that risk keeps going up. They want to be sure they don't grow faster than they can manage. Paul had said 240unit per day at one point. They may well just go with that. The investors will not be forced to firm up their money planning until after the 25 crash tests are done. So I'm guessing they won't shut it off until after then.

So here's my question, knowing they can definitely sell them, why wouldn't they produce more than the reservation count?

They wouldn't stop producing but they may effectively say that the first 60,000 will be the 2016 Elio and then they'll switch to 2017s. Who knows?

 

[goofyone]

I suspect that more will be better until they reach some level of risk. The thing is the estimate of the level to reach that risk keeps going up. They want to be sure they don't grow faster than they can manage. Paul had said 240unit per day at one point. They may well just go with that. The investors will not be forced to firm up their money planning until after the 25 crash tests are done. So I'm guessing they won't shut it off until after then.

So here's my question, knowing they can definitely sell them, why wouldn't they produce more than the reservation count?

The line will not stop once it is up and running! It would be counterproductive to completely stop the line once you have it running at full speed. EM will simply move directly from production of first year reserved vehicles to second year vehicles destined for retails sales. Depending on what kind of fleet deals they have in place these vehicles could also be produced before retail sales as they would also be 'reserved'. This is why I personally believe that the 'first year production" promise means the first model year which is not necessarily the first calendar year of production.

What was confusing, as it was not well addressed by Elio Motors, were details such as the number of shifts and shift capacity planned in order to reach 250,000. These questions have now been addressed directly by Paul Elio in the Town Hall meetings which has made things much clearer. The Shreveport is planned to have two shifts per day and operate five days per week. Each shift will producing 500 cars per shift for a goal of 1000 vehicles per day. When spread over 250 work days per year these 1000 vehicles per day result in the stated plant capacity of 250,000 vehicles.

We also have been told that production at the plant will begin with just a single shift and they do not expect to hit the full production speed, 500 vehicles per day, until about 90 days into production as they will start slowly and gradually increase the line speed as any issues are discovered and resolved and as the workers become accustomed to their tasks. What could change is when exactly EM decides to bring the second shift online. Based on whatever is happening EM could decide to simply produce 500 vehicles per day until they feel conditions warrant the addition of the second shift.

 

[AriLea]

goofyone, that does make lots of sense.

 

[Jim H]

Just upgraded... All in now for $1000!

"He either fears his fate too much
or his desserts are small
who dares not put it to the touch
to win or lose it all... Montrose's Toast"

CONGRATULATIONS and hopefully you will get your number within the next week.

 

[Jeff Porter]

The line will not stop once it is up and running! It would be counterproductive to completely stop the line once you have it running at full speed. EM will simply move directly from production of first year reserved vehicles to second year vehicles destined for retails sales. Depending on what kind of fleet deals they have in place these vehicles could also be produced before retail sales as they would also be 'reserved'. This is why I personally believe that the 'first year production" promise means the first model year which is not necessarily the first calendar year of production.

What was confusing, as it was not well addressed by Elio Motors, were details such as the number of shifts and shift capacity planned in order to reach 250,000. These questions have now been addressed directly by Paul Elio in the Town Hall meetings which has made things much clearer. The Shreveport is planned to have two shifts per day and operate five days per week. Each shift will producing 500 cars per shift for a goal of 1000 vehicles per day. When spread over 250 work days per year these 1000 vehicles per day result in the stated plant capacity of 250,000 vehicles.

We also have been told that production at the plant will begin with just a single shift and they do not expect to hit the full production speed, 500 vehicles per day, until about 90 days into production as they will start slowly and gradually increase the line speed as any issues are discovered and resolved and as the workers become accustomed to their tasks. What could change is when exactly EM decides to bring the second shift online. Based on whatever is happening EM could decide to simply produce 500 vehicles per day until they feel conditions warrant the addition of the second shift.

I'll try to confirm and clarify: "the 'first year production' promise means the first model year which is not necessarily the first calendar year of production", is another way of saying, the reservations may very well be fulfilled in less than a year, even a few months less than a year. If all goes as planned on that graph you provided G.O., and the guess at the reservation cap is 60,000... it would be inside of 7 months, correct?

 

[goofyone]

I'll try to confirm and clarify: "the 'first year production' promise means the first model year which is not necessarily the first calendar year of production", is another way of saying, the reservations may very well be fulfilled in less than a year, even a few months less than a year. If all goes as planned on that graph you provided G.O., and the guess at the reservation cap is 60,000... it would be inside of 7 months, correct?

Yup, that's it!

Just to avoid any confusion I want to emphasize that this is my opinion. Elio Motors has not yet confirmed how many reservations they will take nor how long it will take to produce the first year reservations.

 

[Ty]

I'll try to confirm and clarify: "the 'first year production' promise means the first model year which is not necessarily the first calendar year of production", is another way of saying, the reservations may very well be fulfilled in less than a year, even a few months less than a year. If all goes as planned on that graph you provided G.O., and the guess at the reservation cap is 60,000... it would be inside of 7 months, correct?

I agree as well. If it takes them 7-8 months to build all the 2016 Elios for the pre-orders, it would be about April or May by the time they finished those. At that point, they'd just gear up to build the 2017 models. Also, by that time, they could gauge public reaction and either add a shift, a shift and another line, or throttle back a bit depending on their anticipated yearly production rate. I believe that if they keep the price down and the quality up, they won't have any problems selling them as fast as they can make them.

 

[hawg_ryder]

CONGRATULATIONS and hopefully you will get your number within the next week.

Hey Jim... Thanks for the good thoughts, I appreciate it... I'm anxiously waiting for the number, so I can add it to my signature as well as color n' options when I figure them out! LOL... BTW... Been through your neck of the woods several times on scooter trips... I always enjoy NM...

 

[Jeff Porter]

I agree as well. If it takes them 7-8 months to build all the 2016 Elios for the pre-orders, it would be about April or May by the time they finished those. At that point, they'd just gear up to build the 2017 models. Also, by that time, they could gauge public reaction and either add a shift, a shift and another line, or throttle back a bit depending on their anticipated yearly production rate. I believe that if they keep the price down and the quality up, they won't have any problems selling them as fast as they can make them.

Ty, the idea of adding another line. Imploding my mind. :-) Wouldn't that be a sure-fire sign that EM is successful?