Reservations: 65341 As Of 6/20/2017

[JNR]

Dang! How often are they going to release the numbers now? I'm going to become chart-weary...

I'd guess every 1-2 weeks now as the growth rate will really taper off. They only need 60/day now to get to 40k by years end.

 

[zelio]

Dang! How often are they going to release the numbers now? I'm going to become chart-weary...

I suspect they will go back to once a week now. But then I expected to only get one yesterday instead of 3 in the last 7 days so obviously I could be wrong. Z

 

[Ty]

Thanks to Marco, I figured out how to put the "Cars per day" on the right and everything else on the left. It makes the graph a little more legible. (and I used Elio colors for all the lines)

Last chart. This one is my monthly chart.

 

[Charlie G]

I'd guess every 1-2 weeks now as the growth rate will really taper off. They only need 60/day now to get to 40k by years end.

Do we have a confirmed statement on total reservations / first year production projections?

 

[Ty]

I'd guess every 1-2 weeks now as the growth rate will really taper off. They only need 60/day now to get to 40k by years end.

True. AND, that's lower than any rate since I've been keeping track. I'd say that 40,000 by the end of December is almost a sure thing. Now, how fast will they be able to produce? and how many will be shipped by the end of December 2015? (Rhetorical question... not the start of a will-they/won't-they debate)

 

[goofyone]

Do we have a confirmed statement on total reservations / first year production projections?

Nope, no direct confirmation from Elio Motors. I have heard estimated ranging from 40K up to 68K. We also do not have confirmation on how exactly Elio Motors define 'first year reservations' as this could represent calendar year or model year.

Personally I believe Elio Motors is talking about the model year when they talk about first year reservations. My guess is that, if production begins within a reasonable time of the current estimate, all reserved Elio's will be 2016 models with retail models being 2017 models after about six months of production. I really have no clue how many vehicles EM plans to produce in this time period however my guess again would be around 60K.

 

[Jeff Porter]

Do we have a confirmed statement on total reservations / first year production projections?

Not that I know of Charlie. Months ago I heard 40k, then recently Paul inferred that 60k would be the first year's reservations. I think at this point no confirmed statement exists. I would love to know too.

 

[Jeff Porter]

View attachment 2438 View attachment 2439

Another fun slice of the numbers .... between July 30 and Sept 1, 7258 reservations. Roughly correpsonds to the 50% bonus going away announcement and it ending. Very nice! Almost a 28% increase in just over a month. That'll do.

Again, there's no way I know of getting a number of upgrades that happened over that time too. I'd be curious to know what it is.

 

[Ty]

Capping "first year production" at 60K might actually be a pretty smart play. If they start producing the 2016 Elio in September of 2015 (not unheard of), they could take as long as needed to work out kinks/improve things. Let's say it takes 6 months to build them. Then, they could set a date for production of the 2017 Elio which could happen as early as July or as late as January 2017. That way, they could meet the guaranteed reservation for first year production, have some extra first-year production capability (if needed to fill time before introducing the 2017), and have some leeway in case there are further delays.

 

[AriLea]

Capping "first year production" at 60K might actually be a pretty smart play. If they start producing the 2016 Elio in September of 2015 (not unheard of), they could take as long as needed to work out kinks/improve things. Let's say it takes 6 months to build them. Then, they could set a date for production of the 2017 Elio which could happen as early as July or as late as January 2017. That way, they could meet the guaranteed reservation for first year production, have some extra first-year production capability (if needed to fill time before introducing the 2017), and have some leeway in case there are further delays.

I suspect that more will be better until they reach some level of risk. The thing is the estimate of the level to reach that risk keeps going up. They want to be sure they don't grow faster than they can manage. Paul had said 240unit per day at one point. They may well just go with that. The investors will not be forced to firm up their money planning until after the 25 crash tests are done. So I'm guessing they won't shut it off until after then.

So here's my question, knowing they can definitely sell them, why wouldn't they produce more than the reservation count?