Manufacturing Rate

[Ekh]

150,000 cars per day, ramping up to 250,000. I estimate my car, which is 14847, will take 30+ days of production, or between 10 and 12 weeks from launch. If all goes well. Which means March 1, 2017 as a best-guess.

 

[Ekh]

so far as I know this link can still be used to get you an estimate

The link shows a production ramp-up that's pretty slow -- 20 days to get to 30 units per day, 40 days to get to 100 per day. Since they will be training for 2 to 6 weeks prior to launch, that's an unreasonably low number and assumes LOTS of problems with the line (or operators). The chart also assumes about 6 months before full production --1,000 cars per day-- is reached. I think that's low, too.

My reasons for thinking these estimates are low have to do with the experience of the officers and directors in setting up and running auto assembly lines -- it's very, very deep experience indeed. So if the supply chain is working right (and that could be the real cause for slow startup), I think they can probably be at 100 cars a day in three weeks, and accelerate from there.

This would be a good point for Ty to chime in and straighten us all out. He's done this job, more than once.

I am much more doubtful they'll start production in 2016, think March 2017 is more likely. than I am concerned about ramp-up times. I want my elio, and don't want to pull a Zelio and drop dead before it's ready!

 

[Dustman]

it was first posted several months ago .... I can't remember who did the work to put it together .... it is supposed to be based on EM's announced ramp up & production projections .... "sticky" taken care of

The member who created the awesome estimator app is Macadamean

 

[BADBOY]

my focus remains on the production start date being nailed down, then I will focus on my car.

 

[Gizmo]

Ever feel like an apple hanging from a string tied to a stick which is strapped to your head and your hands are restricted to prevent you grabbing it? That's how I feel with tantalizing things like the E.

 

[DigitalDan]

Hmmm...

In the late 90's before the shut down, Buick City in Flint, MI was producing 72 Buick LeSabers an hour... 1728 a day when all 3 shifts were at it.

 

[Ty]

I thought it had an earlier date when I tried it....and then I changed it to 01/01/16. No matter what the start date is.....it's 3 whole freaking months before I get mine.

at 54 seconds per vehicle, they COULD build 533 per shift... which means 12,000 could roll off the line in 24 days which is about 5 weeks. If you cut the production capability of that line in half and say it takes 108 seconds per vehicle, you'll get 266 per day and it'll take 48 days to get the first 12,000 off the line. I don't see it EVER taking 3 months to get the first 12,000 out the door... That would take 144 seconds per vehicle. And THAT just can't happen. Not if they have an industrial engineer involved. (I'll even work cheap at first...)

 

[RUCRAYZE]

3 months??? That's gonna kill me!!!! Especially after I see a few on the road around here.

I don't see you-seeing them. 15,000 units spread across the country, lowered your chances of seeing one , and if it should come to pass, you'll have been contacted by EM to select your options- As stores won't be established, all work will be done at the plant, and they mentioned a 3 month lead in time. There has been discussion (I spoke to Jerome about this) to work out a deal to comp fly-ins and arrange to test drive, watch 'em being built, and drive it home. Yes there still will be shipping charges.

 

[Ty]

just to see, I typed in Jan 1, 2016 and typed in reservation number 45,000 .... it shows that it will take about 8.5 to 9 months to fill the current reservations

it won't take that long... not even close.

 

[WilliamH]

it won't take that long... not even close.

Elio has stated that the plan is 500 units / shift -- 2 shifts / day -- 5 days / week.
So, 5 X 52 X 1000 = 260,000.
Since they say 250,000 / year, that must mean two weeks down time for vacation.