Elio Crowdfunding

[Ekh]

I wonder what size the median age group would be for this investment? The population for the US is more than 300 mil. so 10% of that would be 300 thousand. and the program has only reached 5000. How can EM and SE reach these people? some sort of targeted e mail, or even better snail mail.

Johnny, you dropped a decimal point. 10% of 300 million is 30 million.

 

[AriLea]

I wonder what size the median age group would be for this investment? The population for the US is more than 300 mil. so 10% of that would be 300 thousand. and the program has only reached 5000. How can EM and SE reach these people? some sort of targeted e mail, or even better snail mail.

I know I gave them my full name and email, I may have given my address and phone too, I forget. Anyone remember? ( or are you talking about all other people in the US? the best investor for this is someone who delved into it when they spotted it )

To tell the truth, I think you can expect to be allowed to invest your reservation amount. Then if some people don't follow through, you'll get an invitation to -to be allowed- to put more in. If it still falls short, there is nothing stopping EM from gathering more investors until the full reported amount is gathered.

All the StartEngines effort does, aside from making SE money, is establish a viable interest level. Then EM can submit the amount to the government. One thing does lock it down to25mil is the fact that it was stated when gathering the reservations. ( a followup letter to every investor would be able to adjust that )

Anyway, the flexibility is there to assert the stated amount of 25mil will be gathered, no mater what. That's why there is no worries at this point.

 

[Johnny Acree]

Johnny, you dropped a decimal point. 10% of 300 million is 30 million.

Sorry, I'm not a math whiz either. but that just shows my point, that 5000 heads is a drop in the bucket to the number of potential heads.

 

[LillyMayPatterson #1685 & #5648]

wOWW !!! I turned my back and look what happened !! I've been making a excel worksheet with date, time, amount pledged and number of pledges for three days. It is very interesting but I am un-able to share it. I must change it to a PDF first and it keeps getting hung up. Anybody know what I am talking about? GO ELIO !!! oH, I met another OHIO member this morning at a yard sale. Pretty exciting morning all together.

 

[LillyMayPatterson #1685 & #5648]

OH, I had to set limits first. I got it. Everytime I checked start engine I logged it on this chart.
You can see some pretty incredible (as in un-believable) entries.

 

[JEBar]

See how this looks.

nicely done

 

[outsydthebox]

Let's say Elio does make the "real" offering and does hit the $25 million mark in the test-the-waters phase of the campaign (seems pretty reasonable, no?). Let's assume the drop-out rate IS 30%, and that the money / investor ratio stays the same. In other words, investors disappear proportionately to dollars.

The current ratio of investors per dollar is 1 investor per $3,857.73 in revenue.

So we will have 6,481 investors. 30% go away, leaving 4,537. They will be investing $17,500,000. Startengine.com charges $20 per transaction, so Elio's fees to them will be $90,740. In addition they'll have somewhere between 50 and 100 thousand bucks in filing fees, auditing costs, lawyers, etc etc.

So let's assume the total costs to Elio for are $190, 740. That leaves them a net of $17.3 million actual dollars. Not bad for a month's work plus filing.

I think this is a low estimate and the actual results will be higher. Here's why:

1. The campaign may well exceed goal, by how much I don't know -- if the "test the waters" phase lasts two months, it will certainly exceed $25 million before it runs out of gas, or hit's the time's-up deadline.

2. The drop-out rate is closer to 15% than to 30% (I actually believe this will be the case)

3. Actual money committed may be more per investor (or less) than the average so far. Wild card. But I think those who are serious may invest more than they're saying here -- particularly small investors (those who are now under $1000) like many of us po folks.

4. I've calculated on the basis of the number of investors driving the total (assuming an average of $3700+ dollars. If that ratio goes up because the heavy hitters stay in the game while the weaker investors tend to drop out first, the grand net total will rise. Depends on who stays and who folds.

5. Something else may happen -- some wild card. Paul Elio has a heart attack. DOE comes through with the ATVM loan. P5 actually gets 92 miles per gallon. Martians land on earth. The Chinese economy keeps tanking and takes the rest of the world with it. Any or all of these could grossly affect the results of Elio's startengine campaign. If there's a wild card -- let's hope it's a good one.

OK, back to counting the ticks on the graph ...

CORRECTION

I was wrong about the fee to Startengine.com. It's actually $50 per investor. So if at the end of the day there are 4,537 investors, Elio's fee will be $226,850 plus the legal etc costs, or $336,850. Not an insignificant amount, but it cuts the net to around 17.2 of the initial 25 million in "expressed interest." Significant loss, but still worth doing.

Nice work with numbers! On thing I disagree with: I don't think they will cut-off at 25M in "pledges." I think that when they reach the 25M point, EM will say..."OK, we feel confident to except (accept?) "crowdfunding" dollars. They go public(?) and they are forced to cut-off at 25M "invested". I think some "latecomers" (like me) will be out of luck, as the early ones will "double-down" on what they have pledged. my 2 cents

 

[Ekh]

Nice work with numbers! On thing I disagree with: I don't think they will cut-off at 25M in "pledges." I think that when they reach the 25M point, EM will say..."OK, we feel confident to except (accept?) "crowdfunding" dollars. They go public(?) and they are forced to cut-off at 25M "invested". I think some "latecomers" (like me) will be out of luck, as the early ones will "double-down" on what they have pledged. my 2 cents

I'm not sure I see quite what you're driving at ... except that they're only allowed to raise 50 million in any one campaign, and there's only allowed to be one A+ campaign per year. They can raise money by crowd funding outside of that, but they cannot solicit mrs than that in the A+ campaign. Fed regulations.

 

[Ekh]

Nice work with numbers! On thing I disagree with: I don't think they will cut-off at 25M in "pledges." I think that when they reach the 25M point, EM will say..."OK, we feel confident to except (accept?) "crowdfunding" dollars. They go public(?) and they are forced to cut-off at 25M "invested". I think some "latecomers" (like me) will be out of luck, as the early ones will "double-down" on what they have pledged. my 2 cents

I don't think they're forced to cut off this campaign at 25 million, this is just testing the waters. The real campaign can raise all it can up to 50 million. I'm not sure ( and doubt) that it's restricted to those who showed "interest" here ... at least not after all those folks have been served. But I'm not 100% sure of my ground here.

 

[Ekh]

We need a pool on how many investors there will be when this phase of the crowd funding campaign hits the 25million goal.

I'm going to go go with 6,325 investors. Who's in the pool with me? Entries close at the 24,000,000 mark.