Elio Crowdfunding

[Ty]

Yep, now at 78% Reserved $19,388,875 5018 investors.
It's now possible the whole concept is being taken more seriously with this performance. Self-fulfilling prophesy. Or everybody wants to join in on a win.

Since we got a count today at 4am (my time) by 9pm tonight I'll be curious to get a full day results. At the moment I'm expecting a full funding by Monday evening, but I'll know better at 9pm.

Just a heads up, at the end of this funding thing, I'm going to try and focus on other daily responsibilities ( probably fail ) pending the P5 completion, or a P6 test, either of those.

I know you'll all miss my noise! ( repeat: I'll probably fail to stay away )

(edit: now $19,394,375 at 5019, so that guy did 6500 on his own? Someone could have upped their amount too I guess.)

Just don't go away completly!

 

[Ty]

Let's say Elio does make the "real" offering and does hit the $25 million mark in the test-the-waters phase of the campaign (seems pretty reasonable, no?). Let's assume the drop-out rate IS 30%, and that the money / investor ratio stays the same. In other words, investors disappear proportionately to dollars.

The current ratio of investors per dollar is 1 investor per $3,857.73 in revenue.

So we will have 6,481 investors. 30% go away, leaving 4,537. They will be investing $17,500,000. Startengine.com charges $20 per transaction, so Elio's fees to them will be $90,740. In addition they'll have somewhere between 50 and 100 thousand bucks in filing fees, auditing costs, lawyers, etc etc.

So let's assume the total costs to Elio for are $190, 740. That leaves them a net of $17.3 million actual dollars. Not bad for a month's work plus filing.

I think this is a low estimate and the actual results will be higher. Here's why:

1. The campaign may well exceed goal, by how much I don't know -- if the "test the waters" phase lasts two months, it will certainly exceed $25 million before it runs out of gas, or hit's the time's-up deadline.

2. The drop-out rate is closer to 15% than to 30% (I actually believe this will be the case)

3. Actual money committed may be more per investor (or less) than the average so far. Wild card. But I think those who are serious may invest more than they're saying here -- particularly small investors (those who are now under $1000) like many of us po folks.

4. I've calculated on the basis of the number of investors driving the total (assuming an average of $3700+ dollars. If that ratio goes up because the heavy hitters stay in the game while the weaker investors tend to drop out first, the grand net total will rise. Depends on who stays and who folds.

5. Something else may happen -- some wild card. Paul Elio has a heart attack. DOE comes through with the ATVM loan. P5 actually gets 92 miles per gallon. Martians land on earth. The Chinese economy keeps tanking and takes the rest of the world with it. Any or all of these could grossly affect the results of Elio's startengine campaign. If there's a wild card -- let's hope it's a good one.

OK, back to counting the ticks on the graph ...

CORRECTION

I was wrong about the fee to Startengine.com. It's actually $50 per investor. So if at the end of the day there are 4,537 investors, Elio's fee will be $226,850 plus the legal etc costs, or $336,850. Not an insignificant amount, but it cuts the net to around 17.2 of the initial 25 million in "expressed interest." Significant loss, but still worth doing.

If the P5 were to come out between the interest check and the ability to actually invest, I would surely be encouraged to up my amount!

 

[Ty]

11:50 AM 7/11

Total $20,220.325 Investors 5123 Average investment $3,946

This seems high to me, almost 25% higher than our gang here has invested (I think). Makes me worry about the bail-out factor later when they actually open the funding campaign -- which there's no doubt at all they will do!

11:54 -- Someone just kicked in another $5,000. Or said they were interested in investing that amount ... have to remember it's all play money right now. If there were a sound attached, like a slot machine, that went "ding" every time someone invested (think It's a Wonderful Life) would it be totally aggravating, or more like music to your ears?

One person kicking in $50,000 could double the perceived amounts of the next 48 people who go in at 1,000 which will surely skew results.

 

[Ekh]

If the P5 were to come out between the interest check and the ability to actually invest, I would surely be encouraged to up my amount!

I don't think you'd be alone in that! Nobody knows how long it actually takes to go from interest phase to solicitation phase -- startengine told me they were guessing 3 months. Not enough time to get the P5 done, alas! But the solicitation phase can last the rest of the year, and I'm sure you're right, that a Youtube clip of a P5 hurtling around a track (a la Top Gear) would spur one heck of a lot of people to up their investments!

 

[Chris F]

I suspect a significant factor in how many of these actually happen will be what stake in the company you're actually getting. $25 Million is about 10% of what they've been saying they need. Will these investors get 10% of the company/stock? A better question would be 10% of what? The 'Inc.' article they sent out earlier today implies that these shares can be sold OTC. If that's true, that could make a significant difference. If you're forced to hold on to them for a period of time (2 years, 5 years, not uncommon for employees getting stock or options in a startup), that might cause some concern. Bottom line, we're all saying "Sure, we're interested" when we know absolutely no details about what we're getting for our investment. The implication is at least one 'share' for each $250, since that's the minimum investment. But out of how many shares? $250/share for $25 Million works out to 100,000 shares for this funding round, but this certainly isn't the only one. If this is 10% of the total they need, then maybe there's 1 million total shares (or will be someday, until the issue more)? The people who've already invested are certainly getting something (Stuart Lichter and his fellow investors). The accredited investors who funded the P5 are expecting something, too. That will be the key point for me, what am I getting for my investment.

Don't get me wrong, I'm as thrilled about this as anyone. I jumped in the first day. But there are a lot of unknowns at this point.

Reg A + are unrestricted shares.

 

[Ekh]

One person kicking in $50,000 could double the perceived amounts of the next 48 people who go in at 1,000 which will surely skew results.

Quite right, which is why I think the "average" is deceptive -- to go $50,000, your net worth would have to be over 500K (excluding your house) or your annual income ditto over 500K. Not for the little guys. But it's a high risk investment -- no secret there -- so I'm suspicious of very large "interest" bids.

it would be MUCH more informative to see a distribution or at least the median investment amount, not the average.

 

[Johnny Acree]

That's why I'm glad they added the head count. I think that might be more important than the dollar amount as it's just a confidence level indicator.

 

[AriLea]

I was wrong about the fee

Hey, AriLea, where did you determine the "testing the waters" phase ends in 5 days? I've been all through the Startengine site and can't find any set length to the "test the waters phase." Did EM say this someplace and I missed it?

no,no,no, I'm just saying EM get's the 25mil commitment by then. I don't know if they can exceed or what.

I'm guessing as soon as 25mil is completed, and then the 30days, EM will do their submission to the program, then StartEngines releases the emails to EM, who will follow through with the offer/invitations. I don't see any reason for StartEngines to stop gathering commitments until after EM finished preparing their offer/disclosures.

One of the definitions the offer must have is stating the maximum investment they will be acquiring and what type of investor the population is, I would guess. Then the investors will better know the value and conditions of the investment.

I am sure the government requirements do not limit EM to adding investors out-side of StartEngines. So at the 30day mark, EM may well be able to gather more investors, should the actual money returned fall short. The only time EM is locked down on the requested amount is when the submission is made to the government. Then EM is allowed to do what they can to seek that amount. -as a guess-

 

[AriLea]

....clip of a P5 hurtling around a track (a la Top Gear)...

Oh gosh no, Eeek! Those guys wreck anything they don't like as a race car. Jay Leno would be a much better PR event.

PS, not to worry, I won't go a way, just tone it down a bit, and get some other things done. I may even get a bit of work on my Atlantric done.

I go back and forth on the Atlantric. The Elio has swallowed up 75% of the reason I started it. Just for my fun ( or profit ) is the other 25%. And since I like the thing, I really can't see dropping the idea. So 'sit' or get off the pot, as they say.

I'm an inventive DIY builder and the projects just keep falling off the table. Much-much rather experiment with ideas than go to the tavern or watch TV, etc etc. Not quite better than sex though.(R)

 

[Johnny Acree]

I wonder what size the median age group would be for this investment? The population for the US is more than 300 mil. so 10% of that would be 300 thousand. and the program has only reached 5000. How can EM and SE reach these people? some sort of targeted e mail, or even better snail mail.