Arcimoto

[RSchneider]

Again, your armchair analysis and opinion of Arcimoto quarterly updates. It’s typical that a company loses money on the production vehicle roll out until scaled production numbers lowers cost and increases profitability. Rivian is losing thousands on every vehicle sold. Also,Tesla back in 2015. BEX and Vanderhall could be the exceptions, but no plans or financial statements available to armchair analyze.

Arcimoto was partnering with Munro and Asoociates on the FUV 1.x and engineering for manufacturing efficiency. No idea if that’s an ongoing partnership or not.

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Arcimoto loses $40K on every unit sold. They are in year 4 of production. This article is year 3 of production of the model S. Rivian loses money too but they have the cash to keep it going. I'd think that by year 4 of production, you'd maybe be losing $1K on a $20K unit since the FUV is a very simple product as compared to a Sedan or Pickup truck. Yet by the numbers Arcimoto provides, they lose $40K. It costs them $60K to make a unit, yet they sell it at $20K. This would be like if in 2015, a Tesla Model S that cost, $80k to buy, cost the company $240K to produce. Yet by that time they are only losing $4100 on each unit. If Arcimoto could get to the Tesla numbers for their next quarterly report, they have made some substantial progress.

Other issue is the lack of demand for the product. If this thing was the next big thing, there should be more than 5K refundable pre orders and zero inventory. Currently, they have three brand new units and two used just sitting there. If the demand was huge, they would have zero. The used ones are one with 50 miles and the other is 1279. I never knew that 50 miles on the clock, it's now a used vehicle. What confuses me is that I can buy a brand new 2022 FUV for $21,240 or a used 2022 FUV (with 50 miles on it) for $16,900. Both with cargo box just the used one has custom vinyl. Why are people not snatching up the used one that has 50 miles on it? I'm guessing, lack of demand.

As for Vanderhall and BEX, never asked for public money. They do not owe us anything about their finances. It's like asking the local mom and pop diner to give you their financials as McDonalds does on their quarterly reports. Since companies like Elio and Arcomoto wanted public money, they are under the scrutiny of people that pour through their reports. It's good that this happens as people that gave these companies the money, deserve to get an explanation as to what's going on, be it good or bad. As with Elio, about $17M in debt was created in 2022 and I suspect they will wait until the last minute before they file another report (I'm guessing they will not file, get delisted and go into bankruptcy). Arcimoto is starting to drag their feet on quarterly reports. Companies do that when things are not going well.

For Arcimoto, they need cash to operate. Can't pay the bills, then they are going to have to look into plan B.

 

[Rickb]

Arcimoto loses $40K on every unit sold. They are in year 4 of production. This article is year 3 of production of the model S. Rivian loses money too but they have the cash to keep it going. I'd think that by year 4 of production, you'd maybe be losing $1K on a $20K unit since the FUV is a very simple product as compared to a Sedan or Pickup truck. Yet by the numbers Arcimoto provides, they lose $40K. It costs them $60K to make a unit, yet they sell it at $20K. This would be like if in 2015, a Tesla Model S that cost, $80k to buy, cost the company $240K to produce. Yet by that time they are only losing $4100 on each unit. If Arcimoto could get to the Tesla numbers for their next quarterly report, they have made some substantial progress.

Other issue is the lack of demand for the product. If this thing was the next big thing, there should be more than 5K refundable pre orders and zero inventory. Currently, they have three brand new units and two used just sitting there. If the demand was huge, they would have zero. The used ones are one with 50 miles and the other is 1279. I never knew that 50 miles on the clock, it's now a used vehicle. What confuses me is that I can buy a brand new 2022 FUV for $21,240 or a used 2022 FUV (with 50 miles on it) for $16,900. Both with cargo box just the used one has custom vinyl. Why are people not snatching up the used one that has 50 miles on it? I'm guessing, lack of demand.

As for Vanderhall and BEX, never asked for public money. They do not owe us anything about their finances. It's like asking the local mom and pop diner to give you their financials as McDonalds does on their quarterly reports. Since companies like Elio and Arcomoto wanted public money, they are under the scrutiny of people that pour through their reports. It's good that this happens as people that gave these companies the money, deserve to get an explanation as to what's going on, be it good or bad. As with Elio, about $17M in debt was created in 2022 and I suspect they will wait until the last minute before they file another report (I'm guessing they will not file, get delisted and go into bankruptcy). Arcimoto is starting to drag their feet on quarterly reports. Companies do that when things are not going well.

For Arcimoto, they need cash to operate. Can't pay the bills, then they are going to have to look into plan B.

Yes, “guessing“.

 

[RSchneider]

Yes, “guessing“.

It's called educated guessing. Company provides the data and then you have to work through that. Elio was no different. If either company never went public and kept the info to themselves, then it's guessing.

 

[Rickb]

It's called educated guessing. Company provides the data and then you have to work through that. Elio was no different. If either company never went public and kept the info to themselves, then it's guessing.

Your educated guess is still a guess, mostly critical opinion in terms of how they should have done this or that after the facts. You have no idea how their day to day operations impacted their plans and the decisions they made along the way. The fact that Arcimoto is still in production, assembling, delivering, and servicing vehicles is good enough for me.

 

[RSchneider]

Educated guessing is different than just guessing. When companies go public, then it's much easier to guess as to what they are doing. In the case of Arcimoto, what they proposed for the IPO and what they did were two different things. Same for Elio. It's that Arcimoto started selling product in 2019, losing a boatload on each product that wnet out the door. Instead of cutting huge amounts off the production costs, they took that money, bought TMW and then did the MLM. Both that were never in the original proplsal. It seems to me that they should have stuck with the original models of the fuv, and enclosed cockpit and optional 130 mile battery. Then wait for a few years where they are cranking them out at a profit, before going onto other projects.

It's like building a house and getting the money to do that. When the house is half finished, you start up on a barn and a horse training arena. Then you are running out of money and think that it'll somehow work out. The barn and arean will fund the house yet you have very little people using the side projects which ends up losing money.

 

[Rickb]

When a company releases quarterly reports, you know exactly what they are doing. Your guess is why you think it didn’t go exactly as planned. Frankly, when they purchased the profitable TMW. I was somewhat excited because I had a vision that they were going to use TMW’s Trio engineering on the FUV platform to create the MLM (Mean Lean Machine), but wonderered why they didn’t partner with rather than purchase The company. My interest in three wheelers starting back in 2005 was sparked by the Carver fully enclosed tilting three wheeler.

Today, I learned that FUV owners are having issues of long waits on warranty work……..that’s a far more serious issue. Arcimoto apparently has not made the needed 2019-22 fixes and improvements on the 2023 Model. I wouldn’t purchase the FUV today even it it was fully enclosed, without a convenient local servicing dealership. To many servicing and parts availability issues being reported by current FUV owners. My opinion is that Arcimoto will be lucky to make it through 2023.

Note: I’ve planned, financed, and built 3 houses. During my construction process, wanted changes were made to the home plans that dramatically increased my costs. Had I made the personal decision along the way to add a barn and horse training arena on the adjacent lot during the construction project so what? My funding sources continued to be available along the way.

 

[3wheelin]

Meaning of Guessing:
Estimate or suppose (something) without sufficient information to be sure of being correct.
"she guessed the child's age to be 14 or 15". Source: Google
Meaning of Educated guess:
A guess that is made using judgment and a particular level of knowledge and is therefore more likely to be correct. Source: Google
In the court of law, close to the truth is not enough to win a case. Half truth, educated guess, assumptions, likely, etc. just don't cut it.

 

[3wheelin]

In Arcimoto's case, I would concentrate on the positives. They're still around and delivering units. For all we know, the Aptera, Nimbus One, ELIO EV, SOLO, Vanderhall, etc. could end up the same way. If these 3wheelers reach production level and starts selling AT A LOSS OR NOT, I call that success. That means more choices for us. But that's just me.

 

[Rickb]

In Arcimoto's case, I would concentrate on the positives. They're still around and delivering units. For all we know, the Aptera, Nimbus One, ELIO EV, SOLO, etc. could end up the same way. If these 3wheelers reach production level and starts selling AT A LOSS OR NOT, I call that success. That means more choices for us. But that's just me.

Yes, crossing the production finish line is the ultimate milestone success. I’ve been focusing on the 3 wheeler option positives for over 12 years. The currently in production Solo is fully enclosed and has a dealership sales/delivery/servicing business model, but uncertain about the about reliability of the servicing or their success of a single seater, personal autocycle. My current common sense state of mind thinks Aptera (2nd attempt), Nimbus, Elio EV, and BEX will not cross the fully certified production model finish line based on the limited market demand for a fully enclosed autocycle, funding, manufacturing, delivery, and servicing requirements. They are at best, niche market vehicles, much like the hand built Vanderhall, Slingshot, Spyder, etc, that most are not able to afford without scaled production numbers. However, I appreciate your optimism and I continue to watch in hopes that they prove me wrong.

Perhaps Toyota’s i-Road, will be offered to the USA three wheeler city commuter market. The sales/delivery/servicing option at local Toyota Dealerships would be amazing. I understand the i-Road is in production and available in Japan and the EU markets. I could be mistaken about that latest news update.

 

[RSchneider]

For all we know, the Aptera, Nimbus One, ELIO EV, SOLO, etc. could end up the same way. If these 3wheelers reach production level and starts selling AT A LOSS OR NOT, I call that success.

I notice no mention of Vanderhall. Why? We sould be celebrating that company that made it across the production and certification line with a three wheeler faster than any other startup? Yet we don't as $30K is too expensive. Or it's not enclosed or it's not easy to get into due to pics on the internet. Been selling them in all 50 states and addiding into the mix, Australia. They could be losing $1M per unit, yet still keep selling them. They do not release their numbers, as they are a private company. It's not impossible for a three wheeler company to survive, it just depends on how they do it. Ask the general public for money, they ask for a report. Plain and simple. They want to know where their money is going.

Aptera: Needs to go public
Nimbus One: Been silent as they are looking for $30M or will have to go public
Elio EV: Never going to happen
SOLO: Losing money like crazy and selling less than Arcimoto

Ypu'd think that one of these companies would just team up with Vanderhall and go from there. Anyone here have an idea why they would be bad?