Anyone Else Think It Wont Happen?

[outsydthebox]

I suspect a banker dealing with loans that size might want to look a bit deeper .... while the above is true, the $272 million in sales has little relationship to the profit generated by those sales .... EM has stated that their pricing is based on $1,000 per vehicle .... on the ones with a $500 bonus, that profit will be cut by 50% .... so giving EM the rosiest projection and ignoring the units manufactured for which they have committed to giving a $500 bonus and figuring each unit with a $1,000 profit :



40,000 X $1,000 = $40,000,000

based on that, a banker considering a $250 million loan might have to do some serious pondering

Um, uh I was remembering their projected profit a $2k per vehicle...Did I dream that number?
Maybe someone can clarify? A link anyone?

 

[JEBar]

Um, uh I was remembering their projected profit a $2k per vehicle...Did I dream that number?
Maybe someone can clarify? A link anyone?

I can't say where I read/heard it and I certainly could be mistaken ....

 

[Nate_tx]

I have 1500 bux in on this. I have money to burn without burning me up. Ok worst case scenario it does happen. I got to meet so many positive sunny and bright beaming with optimism type people here and on facebook. Ok maybe not facebook.. Oh and only about 60% of the people here.
Its still more likely to happen than won't! The wheels (all 3) haven't fallen off this thing yet.. far from it

 

[Cache Man]

I suspect a banker dealing with loans that size might want to look a bit deeper .... while the above is true, the $272 million in sales has little relationship to the profit generated by those sales .... EM has stated that their pricing is based on $1,000 per vehicle .... on the ones with a $500 bonus, that profit will be cut by 50% .... so giving EM the rosiest projection and ignoring the units manufactured for which they have committed to giving a $500 bonus and figuring each unit with a $1,000 profit :

40,000 X $1,000 = $40,000,000

based on that, a banker considering a $250 million loan might have to do some serious pondering

That is 1/5th of the loan value (20%) within the first year! This is very good. The loan is for operating capital. This is used to purchase materials and consumables to make the Elio autocycle. Any product purchased is tangible and can be sold if needed. Then there is equipment as collateral. It is very good to have all this. The bank will not wonder if it will sell, but rather how many in the future. This can only be a guess at this point. The loan is not just based on Paul Elio. There is a board of high powered people with experience in manufacturing cars and managing the business. With the 40,000 sales/reservations on a vehicle which hasn't been made yet... it will look very favorable to a bank.

 

[Smitty901]

To really get the ELIO going It needs to be on the road. You have to get the darn thing in peoples driveway. In the parking lot at work at the walmart. That is when the largest number of people will go to the sight and seriously consider buying one. The number of us will to go out on a limb are limited. The number that would put down a $1000 with no guarantee of ever seeing it are even less. Forget the dumb dash board and the techy stuff get it on the road.
Willing to place cash on if I drove one into work 3 others would buy one.

 

[outsydthebox]

That is 1/5th of the loan value (20%) within the first year! This is very good. The loan is for operating capital. This is used to purchase materials and consumables to make the Elio autocycle. Any product purchased is tangible and can be sold if needed. Then there is equipment as collateral. It is very good to have all this. The bank will not wonder if it will sell, but rather how many in the future. This can only be a guess at this point. The loan is not just based on Paul Elio. There is a board of high powered people with experience in manufacturing cars and managing the business. With the 40,000 sales/reservations on a vehicle which hasn't been made yet... it will look very favorable to a bank.

To really get the ELIO going It needs to be on the road. You have to get the darn thing in peoples driveway. In the parking lot at work at the walmart. That is when the largest number of people will go to the sight and seriously consider buying one. The number of us will to go out on a limb are limited. The number that would put down a $1000 with no guarantee of ever seeing it are even less. Forget the dumb dash board and the techy stuff get it on the road.
Willing to place cash on if I drove one into work 3 others would buy one.

So true!..... All they need is capital.

 

[AriLea]

To really get the ELIO going It needs to be on the road. . . .
Willing to place cash on if I drove one into work 3 others would buy one.

That's the crazy deal about investors and business owners, Virgin Galactic aside, for the most part they want 'proof' of the risks above all else.
I suspect they count the 40k as proof, but only of the 60k expectation. I agree, if they had it on the road 10times as many people would put in a res if they had proof they would get it inside of 30days.
But if it's inside of 3months, what is the number now? Nobody knows.
I wanted to run my own survey on the street, but that still wouldn't be proof of the 10:1 ratio I expect.
But maybe it would help.
Any of us want to participate in a rigorously designed survey, say asking 10 co-workers, and 10 street side people. Then gather the result, do the analysis and give it to EM?

 

[tonyspumoni]

I agree that Elio Motors is in a strong position, particularly in having a ready, motivated, and tangible market. Their business model is sound, at least insofar as I understand the specifics, and their marketing campaign clever. Still, a standard bank loan is unlikely to be much of an option for bumping Elio Motors into production. It would take a large institution to make a loan of that size (no bank would want more than 5% of its portfolio tied to one borrower) and the lender would want collateral. Since all EM has is the surplus equipment, that would have to serve. If that equipment isn't worth $240M, then some of the loan would be unsecured. No bank is going to give Paul a signature loan - essentially a credit card line - for, say, $120M, without wanting some sort of leverage if Elio Motors fails, except for the DoE, which would endemnify a bank against loss in exchange for a rock solid low interest rate, ergo we circle back to the ATVM loan. Because they are not publicly traded, registered, and have no operating earnings, they cannot tap the bond market. So it is equity or ATVM. They would have to be a lot further along to IPO, so the equity option is going to be private. Dunno though. Maybe this financier they have engaged is comptemplating an early IPO. Five years ago I would've donned a puzzled looked, shrugged at the idea, and disregarded them as insane for IPO'ing early. But these days internet startups with 3 bearded, coffee-swilling wankers and an idea made of paper mache get billions, so maybe this would work? Now that would be exciting wouldn't it?

 

[Catia]

 

[John Painter]

I agree that Elio Motors is in a strong position, particularly in having a ready, motivated, and tangible market. Their business model is sound, at least insofar as I understand the specifics, and their marketing campaign clever. Still, a standard bank loan is unlikely to be much of an option for bumping Elio Motors into production. It would take a large institution to make a loan of that size (no bank would want more than 5% of its portfolio tied to one borrower) and the lender would want collateral. Since all EM has is the surplus equipment, that would have to serve.

As I understood from the Elio press release awhile ago they are actually at the "due diligence" phase of the ATVM loan process, that means as I understood DOE performs a detailed examination of the project's technical, financial, legal, and other qualifications and negotiates the terms of the loan with the applicant. Is that accurate G1? The fat lady hasn't sung, but this is the act where she does.