Anyone Else Think It Wont Happen?

[jdkeats]

The universal language is mathmatics. That's why I love doing the math.
According to the EM site, they are now averaging almost 1000 new deposits EACH WEEK.
As of 06-29-14, they report having 23,000+ deposits.
We have 60 weeks till Sept. 2015 (the current projected manufacturing launch).

IF the average number of new deposits per week stays the same...
(I believe that number will only increase as future progress on the Elio is made public)
...it means that EM will have around 83,000 deposits by Sept. 2015.

I personally think that that weekly number will skyrocket not too far in the future.
The people who are signing up for this vehicle are not stupid.
Maybe a bit special, farsighted and imaginative, but definitely not stupid.
I can imagine that almost every one of them did online research before they pulled the trigger.
If this many people are now popping with all the debate and naysaying that's currently easily found on the web...
Well, I'm sure you see my point.

I'm not saying that all of the current depos are "All in"s @ $1000, but I'm thinking a substantial number are.
I'm also thinking that the closer the production date gets, the more folks will upgrade thier depo.
Barring a EM legal, financial or PR catastrophe, I think we might see 100,000+ $1000 depos by Sept. '15
I've seen numerous mentions of EM needing an additional 145 M to start actually pumping
the finished product out the exit ramp of the future factory.
What's 100,000 X $1000? Could that be 100 M of the 145 M?
Even if EM only breaks even on the first year's production in order to make it happen,
they should end up with a very sweet second year all around.

If those depo numbers stay @ approximately 1000/wk or more, I wouldn't worry much.
Thoughts?

The fallacy in your argument is getting 100,000 deposits for $1000.00. That will never happen. When Honda Accord was introduced in the mid seventies and the opec oil embargo raised gas prices and Detroit got caught with their pants down producing the wrong cars. There was a huge demand for fuel efficient cars and dealers were taking deposits on a production car and giving an approximate date of delivery. They took $500.00 deposit on a $4350.00 car, but they did not ever garner a 100,000 deposits.

 

[Ty]

The rate of $1000 All-In compared to all other deposits is just over 25%. It stayed right at 25% most of the year right up to about September when it moved a bit higher. Go figure. (That's about when the 50% promotion ended)

 

[Jay3wheel]

The rate of $1000 All-In compared to all other deposits is just over 25%. It stayed right at 25% most of the year right up to about September when it moved a bit higher. Go figure. (That's about when the 50% promotion ended)

If Eloi was not happy with where they are at in terms of reservations, the 50% bonus would have been suddenly extended. Elio is getting what they need. If they had a 100,000 reservations, oui what a mess.....

 

[Smitty901]

When ELIO gets close to real production. More activity starts drawing attention at the plant, positive news coverage from sources other than phony on line blogs and sights that just post a quick repeat of what they heard. I am betting ELIO will see a climb in real purchasing interest. There are enough of us out here that are willing to step away from the normal.
I know I am not the only one that will be looking for a second or third ELIO . I have a grown daughter that I think would love to fine one of them sitting in her driveway for Christmas .

 

[tonyspumoni]

GoofyOne for President!!!

j/k! But I really like the internet's most level-headed moderator.

I concur. Lots of moderators will allow genuinely atrocious behavior go without comment and, over on NASIOC (Subaru), the moderators seem to actually encourage it. Goofyone deserves plenty of credit for keeping this collegial and fun. Now if he'd just ditch the beard he COULD run for office.

 

[Snick]

I concur. Lots of moderators will allow genuinely atrocious behavior go without comment and, over on NASIOC (Subaru), the moderators seem to actually encourage it. Goofyone deserves plenty of credit for keeping this collegial and fun. Now if he'd just ditch the beard he COULD run for office.

Nah, keep the beard. Millenials are really REALLY into beards just now. He'd lock up that hidden vote (I'm not a millenial).

 

[Dusty921]

What a great show for Elio at "Wings over North Georgia". For all of us proud Elioites, the continuous line at the booth was very gratifying. The performance of the EM 'Road Crew' was exemplary. Jerome, his Dad, Neil and the rest were exactly as advertized by previous show attendees, these folks deserve a huge thanks from us. Yeah, I know it's their job, but they never missed a beat and never wavered from true excitement about the product. Even one of the guys from "Smoke & Thunder" said how impressed and excited they were to be associated with a "Class Act" like EM. and the car is FABULOUS!!!
Thank you Paul Elio, my wife and I are ecstatic!!!

The only down side was the sheer size of the crowd, getting into the Airshow was a bloody nightmare. It was a disgrace!!

Air Show organizers weren't even remotely prepared and got caught with their proverbial shorts around their proverbial ankles. Paid for Reserved Parking passes were forgotten about and the 'Gold Rush' was held at bay for hours by a totally lackluster, often confused and disinterested staff as well as a boneheaded "Local Constabulary". DUH! , It's 10am, opening time and we have a five mile backup in both directions waiting to funnel into one single lane on the smallest road into the Airport, think we should do something?...... Naw, it's more important that we keep the lines straight in the parking lot.
You people should be ASHAMED!!.

Talladega on Sunday, with three times the attendance, took a total of 7 minutes from I-20 to ignition off. and not a whole lot more time to leave!

 

[CheeseheadEarl]

An Elio visit and 'Dega in the same weekend...Dusty, I'm officially jealous.

 

[Jay3wheel]

Too bad getting into the airshow didn't involve only left turns..

 

[HHH]

The only down side was the sheer size of the crowd, getting into the Airshow was a bloody nightmare. It was a disgrace!!

Air Show organizers weren't even remotely prepared and got caught with their proverbial shorts around their proverbial ankles. Paid for Reserved Parking passes were forgotten about and the 'Gold Rush' was held at bay for hours by a totally lackluster, often confused and disinterested staff as well as a boneheaded "Local Constabulary". DUH! , It's 10am, opening time and we have a five mile backup in both directions waiting to funnel into one single lane on the smallest road into the Airport, think we should do something?...... Naw, it's more important that we keep the lines straight in the parking lot.
You people should be ASHAMED!!.

Talladega on Sunday, with three times the attendance, took a total of 7 minutes from I-20 to ignition off. and not a whole lot more time to leave!

Same issue in prior year; that's why I stayed away, and look forward to being in Birmingham.