250,000 Units Per Year ?

[Truett Collins]

I just need to clarify there are not two separate assembly lines but just one line and two shifts which in the automotive industry are sometimes labeled as lines. Each shift/line can produce 500 vehicles or 1000 vehicles per day across two shifts. 1,000 per day x250 days in the average work year calendar equals 250,000 vehicles per year.

As many people do not understand how this volume is possible for comparison we know that using the very same plant GM was also producing over 1,000 pickup trucks and hummers each day across two shifts per day and those vehicles were much much more complex to build.

Of course we do not expect this volume to used from day one, or even in the first year, however the current plant does have the capacity to produce these vehicles in these volumes as demand warrants it.

From Paul Elio at the Town Hall Meeting August 16 2014

Q. What is the first year projected units?
A. Line one will run at 70% speed and then in 45 days bring line one up to 100% which equals 500 vehicles a day. Then split that team in half and run both shifts at 70% speed and that takes another 45 days to get both lines up to 100% for 1000 units a day.

 

[Norahsbed]

Whew! Just missed that chewing out! Thanks for playing nice boys!

 

[goofyone]

For me, it's easier to speak in specific examples rather than general terms. It's too easy for me to make incorrect assumptions from general terms.

Let's do a specific example. Let's say production starts Sept. 15, 2015. It is possible that the 500 vehicles per day rate will be reached by approximately Dec. 15, 2015. During the ramp-up time for that first 3 months of production, about 14,400 vehicles total will have been produced. During that 3-month initial period of production, there are about 65 work days. If these numbers look incorrect, feel free to correct them.

These numbers are based on what Paul Elio has stated as goals. The goals are backed up as feasible by those with experience and knowledge on this forum.

If all is going well, then the 4th-6th months could see a ramp-up that gets to 1000 vehicles per day by the end of the 6th month, again if there is sufficient demand. This would be roughly 130 work days in 6 months. During the ramp-up for the first 6 months, about 61,300 vehicles will have been produced.

One would have to assume that all is going well for Elio Motors, for these numbers to happen. All the necessary parts are present and correct. There are no natural disasters affecting supply chains or the plant itself. Insert any other delay reason here. Any sort of forseen or unforseen delay would reduce the total number of vehicles produced during production ramp-up. For our sanity and happiness, it might be best for us to assume that delays will occur, starting with Sept 15 as a production start.

If you put yourself in the CEO chair for Elio Motors, you see there are around 35,000 reservations by end of Sept 2014 (i.e. right now), and based on the above prediction, you reach that number of vehicles with about 20 work weeks of production. I'd be a bit nervous about my plant creating hundreds of cars per day during week 21 and I'm not sure if we have buyers.

It's easy to say "build them and folks will buy them", but these aren't $10 widgets. Demand really REALLY has to be there.

In this specific example, I believe I've talked myself into the idea that a good number for a reservation shut-down would be a projection for the first 6-months of production, which is 61,000.

The way I see it is the biggest variable in plant production is going to be when EM decides to bring a second shift online.

I don't believe 60K+ reservations is a very high bar for EM to set at all as in about the last six months they have managed to receive about 25,000 new reservations and they only need about 25,000 more to reach your 61K number. As long as the developments we expect starting appearing, running engine, P5/E0, E-series building and testing, EM should have no trouble exceeding that number in the next six months or so.

 

[CompTrex]

A lot depends on HOW well one takes care of it. Me, it'll last me 20 years if I lasted that long.
I have a ford van now 16 years old and looks and drives good.
Some can tear up a steel ball with a rubber hammer.

I am definitely not one of those, baby my car type people. I buy a car and I want to use it. I don't want to spend time rubbing it with a diaper, or washing it, or tuning it, or cleaning the wheels. All stuff, I know, I should be doing, but I don't. Standard maintenance, I'm OK with (most times), but I'd rather drive it than work on it.

 

[Norahsbed]

I hear ya Comp, same here! I've had people say, " Your truck has a lot of scratches and the bed is really dirty. " It's a truck you ignoramuses, It's supposed to be dirty!

 

[CompTrex]

Amen. Scratches like scars, show character.

 

[Norahsbed]

Amen. Scratches like scars, show character.

Only the first one really hurts! After that it's " Oh Well, it's a truck. "

 

[LockMD]

I am definitely not one of those, baby my car type people. I buy a car and I want to use it. I don't want to spend time rubbing it with a diaper, or washing it, or tuning it, or cleaning the wheels. All stuff, I know, I should be doing, but I don't. Standard maintenance, I'm OK with (most times), but I'd rather drive it than work on it.

Most part I'm the same way. But I can see my rubbing the ELIO down everyday until the novelty wears off at least.

 

[CompTrex]

Most part I'm the same way. But I can see my rubbing the ELIO down everyday until the novelty wears off at least.

Truth be know, me too. But I also see the novelty wearing off rapidly for me. Especially after the first scratch.

 

[Norahsbed]

Most part I'm the same way. But I can see my rubbing the ELIO down everyday until the novelty wears off at least.

Or the finish!