250,000 Units Per Year ?

[JEBar]

its my understanding that 250,000 units per year is a goal for down the road, hopefully not to far down the road .... to have close to 40,000 reservations for a concept seems outstanding to me .... once they are on the road, once the factor stores are in place, and once the national advertising campaign begins, demand will grow .... on the one hand, Mazada has plenty of competition for the vehicles they sell .... it makes sense to me that there is and will continue to be a large market for inexpensive, fuel efficient, all weather, new vehicles designed for one or two riders ... a market where Elio Motors has no competition and none is on the horizon

Jim

 

[Ty]

Good evening to everyone!

I've been reviewing the different topics posted on this forum for the last several days...lots of usefully information...

My thoughts for today...Mr Elio's goal of 250,000 annual units to make his project financially viable appears to an extremely optimistic sales goal at the least...for reference...Mazda only sold a total of 283,947 total units in the US in 2013...

Wow...250,000 unit is a huge number by any automotive standards...especially for a new manufacturer trying to introduce a untested product segment...

So...let's examine current Elio reservation data...

Here's interesting way to analyze the current Elio reservation statistics...

Elio Motors has been aggressively soliciting vehicle pre-orders for the last 24 months...

They currently have appropriately 37,500 (give or take) advance orders...

So...that averages out to approximately 18,750 pre-orders a year...

Mr. Elio has publicly indicated they need to ramp up to a production number of 250,000 units a year to make this project viable...

250,000 annual units...and subtracting 37,500 total of 2 years of pre-order units...and assuming every reservation holder takes delivery...(and you know that will never occur)...that still leaves at least 212,500 available units on a yearly basis...

Bottom line...there seems to be questionable consumer demand for 250,000 Elio Vehicles...

Any thoughts?

Most people won't put deposits down on a car that won't be delivered for about a year. I'd bet there are well more that 5 people for every reservation out there. Once they hit the road and people realize they get paid to have an Elio (I spend more a month on diesel fuel than I will on an Elio plus the gas it uses.), many more will buy. They'll sell all they can make at least in the first year. After that, it'll depend on how well the public perceives the value and how "cool" it is to have one.

 

[goofyone]

I would say that having nearly 40,000 reservations, with most of those happening this year, with only limited advertising is actually a very good sign. We know that so far only a fraction of EM's potential buyers have even been reached via EM's limited marketing and we also know that only a small fraction of those buyers are willing to take a chance and put money down on this vehicle long before it is expected to enter production yet EM already has nearly 40,000 reservations.

This point is further reinforced by the fact that we know from studying the trends that what really brings reservations in is not EM's marketing or road tour but instead whenever EM gets wide exposure via syndicated new articles or news stories via major news outlets. The last few months EM has not had this kind of exposure and reservations have suffered as a result.

Once these vehicles begin rolling off the assembly line they will be in the hands of 10's of thousands of reservation holders who will proceed to drive them throughout the entire country exposing people first hand to these vehicles. People will see these vehicles driving around and also see EM's mass marketing campaign along with all the news stories that will be written about this new vehicle. With all that exposure EM likely won't be able to make enough of these vehicles.

On top of all that don't forget that EM does not even necessarily plan on selling all 250K only in the USA each year as they have also discussed international sales beginning with Canada fairly quickly within a year or two of the vehicles launch.

 

[tonyspumoni]

Pre-orders for the first iPhone were an exceptionally small fraction of the eventual market size. If a product is marginally better than competitors, it will sell. If a product HAS no competition and represents an entirely new market segment, it will sell tremendously well, assuming it is properly executed. That is I think the major threat to the Elio reaching market goals. If the first units come off the assembly line and perform as designed for anywhere close to the projected price tag, then many fence riders will leap off and buy.

 

[BlioKart]

250K units globally sounds doable. I could imagine a good chunk being exported. While keeping jobs in the USA.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

When this was mentioned awhile ago, someone published production numbers that made 250k seem reasonable. I fully agree we will all be the greatest FREE advertising for this autocar as the rest of the planet catches up to this new transportation, by just being on the road!!

 

[Craig]

Good evening to everyone!

I've been reviewing the different topics posted on this forum for the last several days...lots of usefully information...

My thoughts for today...Mr Elio's goal of 250,000 annual units to make his project financially viable appears to an extremely optimistic sales goal at the least...for reference...Mazda only sold a total of 283,947 total units in the US in 2013...

Wow...250,000 unit is a huge number by any automotive standards...especially for a new manufacturer trying to introduce a untested product segment...

So...let's examine current Elio reservation data...

Here's interesting way to analyze the current Elio reservation statistics...

Elio Motors has been aggressively soliciting vehicle pre-orders for the last 24 months...

They currently have appropriately 37,500 (give or take) advance orders...

So...that averages out to approximately 18,750 pre-orders a year...

Mr. Elio has publicly indicated they need to ramp up to a production number of 250,000 units a year to make this project viable...

250,000 annual units...and subtracting 37,500 total of 2 years of pre-order units...and assuming every reservation holder takes delivery...(and you know that will never occur)...that still leaves at least 212,500 available units on a yearly basis...

Bottom line...there seems to be questionable consumer demand for 250,000 Elio Vehicles...

Any thoughts?

Really

 

[Puna bob]

I believe that most American drivers seem to need instant gratification and are unwilling to wait for a reservation.
Possibly they are afraid Elio is a scam, Once these babies start showing up on the streets and you can go sit in one
or even test drive one, it can be seen and felt and know it is real. I think then demand will soar,
not only in the US but also in Europe or Asia where small cars are the norm not the exception.

 

[ross]

I would say that having nearly 40,000 reservations, with most of those happening this year, with only limited advertising is actually a very good sign. We know that so far only a fraction of EM's potential buyers have even been reached via EM's limited marketing and we also know that only a small fraction of those buyers are willing to take a chance and put money down on this vehicle long before it is expected to enter production yet EM already has nearly 40,000 reservations.

This point is further reinforced by the fact that we know from studying the trends that what really brings reservations in is not EM's marketing or road tour but instead whenever EM gets wide exposure via syndicated new articles or news stories via major news outlets. The last few months EM has not had this kind of exposure and reservations have suffered as a result.

Once these vehicles begin rolling off the assembly line they will be in the hands of 10's of thousands of reservation holders who will proceed to drive them throughout the entire country exposing people first hand to these vehicles. People will see these vehicles driving around and also see EM's mass marketing campaign along with all the news stories that will be written about this new vehicle. With all that exposure EM likely won't be able to make enough of these vehicles.

On top of all that don't forget that EM does not even necessarily plan on selling all 250K only in the USA each year as they have also discussed international sales beginning with Canada fairly quickly within a year or two of the vehicles launch.

I still encounter people all the time who have never heard of this E-car. Wait till the E-car hits the streets and the word gets out. Thank God we have an reservation number and don't have to wait in line behind all those dumbasses who don't have a clue.

 

[Inigo93]

Did they actually say 250k units to be viable? I recall them saying that the factory was capable of ramping up to that level and that was the goal (with international sales), but I don't recall it being said that was any sort of a requirement to keep the doors open. If it is... Yeah, I'm not seeing it. At least, not in the first year or two.