Possible Futures Of Ev's And-or Fuel Cells.

[satx]

"EV choices today are extremely limited"

Internal combustion cars were extremely limited in the 1910s. And they had the advantage of extremely cheap fuel, which is an advantage that EVs lack now.

There will be breakthroughs in battery technology and the EVs will explode beyond demand.

 

[Rickb]

There is a significant difference between the AVTM Loan and a tax credit to fund EV's The loan is paid back by Elio. The tax credit is a subsidy to the buyer of an EV paid by all the tax payers who cannot afford to buy an EV. For EV's to ultimately be successful they will have to be economically competitive without government subsidies. Unlike subsidies the loan actually produces some level of income to the government

I realize the difference, both government Programs are important to the future state of transportation needs and our economy when 2/3's of all the oil is used for transportation purposes. I think it's responsible government to encourage the sales and development of ev's and other alternative fuel options.

The tax credits designed to encourage increased sales and use will indirectly help with the development of EV's to become more affordable to more taxpayers in the future as well as provide jobs in new startup companies.

 

[AriLea]

"EV choices today are extremely limited"
Internal combustion cars were extremely limited in the 1910s. And they had the advantage of extremely cheap fuel, which is an advantage that EVs lack now.There will be breakthroughs in battery technology and the EVs will explode beyond demand.

I would love that, but even if battery tech suddenly hit the market, it would take some substantial infrastructure changes to enable a flood of demand.

There are plenty of promised battery improvements that would be awesome if they were successfully implemented. Other than cost reduction, power density and battery life, time to charge is huge, all these are promised and needed. But time to charge would be restricted by the lack of stations. And therefore limit the demand. All the plans Tesla motors has, hardly puts a dent in it up to now.

I mean the best current estimate is a 10min recharge. That puts about 2wice+ as many people at a station than the current rate. That equals out to twice as much needed parking and connections at stations as we have now(for gasoline), plus the energy capacity needed. And time is precious, so some people will opt for other systems, including ICE.

Even flow batteries will take a few extra minutes to 'exchange' and that offends some people's logic on adoption of the tech.

For sure these other options such as hybrid, fuel cell, range extended, flow batteries will need to come into play to make much of a switch to the EV drive itself. After that you have a chance at implementing battery-only drives en mass. The best guess is that there will always be some mix that includes all the above plus ICE for a very long time, at least 20years.

 

[AriLea]

I wonder about the feasibility of ordering the Elio without a drivetrain for the EV conversion. That would be a shocker special request for the EM on line order desk and the line workers. Certainly would save a few dollars in parts and tear out labor in the ev conversion process. That darn affordability factor takes away some of the fun. The EV club sounds like a fun group!

Yes, that Phoenix EV group was pretty interesting. They now have a lot more focus now on charging stations than a few years ago, but it is always a very good place to get up close to the people and technology doing things. If you want to know 'how', see 'who is' and see 'what' they were always up for that.
They were certainly willing to spend more money than the rest of us for their interest.

BTW, I asked EV-Blue what they thought an Elio conversion would cost for 60miles of freeway travel, based on expected 7-10kw consumption (no response yet). If anyone else can get an estimate elsewhere, please give it a go!, Let us know the result. Thanks!

 

[satx]

time to charge is huge

nope, almost nobody puts 200+ miles/day on their car, so overnight charging, or charging at work will be the norm, two places where you can "fill 'er up" that you can't now "gas 'er up".

Driving into a commercial "filling station" to charge your EV won't be that common.

 

[Kuda]

nope, almost nobody puts 200+ miles/day on their car, so overnight charging, or charging at work will be the norm, two places where you can "fill 'er up" that you can't now "gas 'er up".

Driving into a commercial "filling station" to charge your EV won't be that common.

http://www.pluginamerica.org/incentives

 

[AriLea]

nope, almost nobody puts 200+ miles/day on their car, so overnight charging, or charging at work will be the norm, two places where you can "fill 'er up" that you can't now "gas 'er up".

Driving into a commercial "filling station" to charge your EV won't be that common.

Well, there are some suppositions in it, the unknown, what driving range will the common platform have?
If it's less than the need, then driving stations will be needed.

For example, my car can go longer on a tank than any EV. Do I need stations then? I say yes, you've just inferred no, not for my range. I'll concede though the current habit is based on not being able to fuel up at home. None of us want to be required to go home just to recharge and go out again. hugely in convenient.

Still, I drive 84 round trip and once in a while I need to do much more without an 8 hour charge time. So I'd be a lot more comforted with less than 10minute charge and somewhere convenient to do that. In that regard EV facilities must compete with gas stations.

Therefore yes, maybe fewer station are required. However, we will not be able to know how many until cost effective packs with enough range are out there. What does that range need to be? More than now, 100mi+ for me. What does that cost need to be? Less than it does now.

Note: A viable charge-in-road system would complete change this whole discussion.

 

[AriLea]

Charge-in-road systems:

Here's what I want, every so often as I drive around in my EV, it pops up on the charge status display,
"Power available, 5c per kwh, allow charge? (now 50%, total recharge 25c)", just press "Yes" on the touch-screen and things happen at the road surface while I remain on that line. If I leave or encounter a new power-line, it interrupts that exchange.

A vendor would contract with the city or state the access to service a "power-line" for a distance on the road. That technology is possible to do right now, but could use some improvements.

 

[Rickb]

Wireless quick charge battery stations available at fast food joints charging your EV while driving through the fast food pick up lane. OR possibly a universal travel battery swapped out in seconds at quick change stations located at every StarBucks and/or interstate highway Rest Stop.

 

[AriLea]

Wireless quick charge battery stations available at fast food joints charging your EV while driving through the fast food pick up lane. OR possibly a universal travel battery swapped out in seconds at quick change stations located at every StarBucks and/or interstate highway Rest Stop.

Fer sure, basically anywhere you stop for a few minutes at a time, once those 10min charge packs are available. Of course our assumption is that the 'in-road' systems can charge that fast. I'm not sure that it can do it safely at that rate as yet. Sonic Drivein's have a longer exposure to their customers, they might benefit from even slower systems. Even the cable plug-in versions.