Possible Futures Of Ev's And-or Fuel Cells.

[AriLea]

Just a better place to have this discussion. Link back here if an EV quibble breaks out somewhere else. Then you'll have it all in one place.

It would be nice if this was more about how things could be rather than how they are not. We all know that EV for the masses isn't here yet, but could it? How would that play out? How CAN that play out?

There is a cross connect between fuel cells, hybrid drive and EV drive in that all use the technology of electric motor drive. All kinds of flexibility is encountered like detachable/swapable assemblies and all-wheel-drive. Hyrid drive and yes, range extended by ICE or by FC.

Things like flow-batteries and swap-out battery rentals are possible. Even vehicles with out power storage at all are possible with the advent of power rails or in road transmission.

It's a big subject, have at it!

Some terms ( s=specific, default )( g=general term )
--------------------------------------
ED=Electric Drive
EV = Electric Vehicle, Vehicle with ED
FC=Fuel Cell
ICE = internal combustion engine
EM=Electric motor
AWD = All Wheel drive
RWD=Rear wheel drive
FWD=Front Wheel drive (like the Elio)
DD = Direct Drive, no gears
single speed = 1 gear ratio only, includes DD
1F2R=one front wheel, two rear (trike, delta layout)
2F1R= ->like the Elio (reverse trike, tadpole layout)
AT=Automatic transmission
MT=Manual transmission
RPM = revolutions per second
MPG=miles per gallon
eMPG=ev miles per gallon, base on equivalent to current cost of fuels.
Motor=(g)a thing that converts energy into motion, for example EM or ICE
Engine=(s)an ICE
cg = center of gravity, measured in all three dimensions
cd = co-efficient of drag. used with frontal area to assess total aerodynamic drag
fa = frontal area, cross section of vehicle as seen from the front
hp = horse power, lifting 550 foot-pounds per second (745.7 watts)
example: lifting 275lbs for 2ft = lifting 550lbs for 1 ft = 1hp
w, watts = volts x amps
v, e, volts = amplitude of static energy level, use it like you would water pressure.
a, amps = volume of energy, consider it like the volume of water moved in 1 second
r, electrical resistance = consider it like the size of a water pipe
kw = 1000 watts
wh = w times hours
kwh = w times hours / 1000
hp = 1.2kw
motor power rating, continuous = * max hp an EM can sustain long term(maybe 15min+)
motor power rating, peak = * max hp an EM can sustain short term(maybe <1 sec)
Flow Battery = battery energy stored in a liquid that is pumped thru a reactor device
Autocycle = 2F1R or 1F2R, RWD or FWD or AWD, with full cabin, flat-bottom seats, seat-belts, steering wheel and the lighting same as 2F2R.
Autocycle-RT = Autocycle Reverse Trike, 2F1R
Autocycle-Trike = 1F2R
Motor-Trike (short version:Trike) = trike version of a motorcycle. Example:VW trikes or the Subaru X100.
RT = Reverse Trike (2F1R)
RT-Cabinscooter = Old term for a Autocycle-RT
'tadpole' = (adjective) reverse version of a trike

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* either rating might be specified, peak could be as much as 5times continuous, so know which you are looking at, and the time length specified, and at what RPM. Generally added cooling will extend continuous but not peak.

I'll add useful terms here when encountered in the discussion.

 

[Jeff Porter]

I'll throw my perspective on the EVs, since I live in a rural area.

I love the idea of an electric vehicle. I'd love to buy and own one. But there are too many obstacles.

I don't see how EVs will become more affordable, as a normal ICE vehicle is not becoming more affordable, price continues to go up. In April, USA Today said the average price of a new vehicle (cars and trucks combined) is $33,560. The EV price may come down in the coming years relative to the cost of an ICE vehicle, but there's no way an EV will be bought by the average family in big numbers in the U.S.

For range anxiety, until the infrastructure gets established so that you can drive in any direction for 100 miles and be able to find a charging station, the range will stay... anxious. hehe Now in the middle-of-nowhere eastern Colorado, on I-70 in Limon, a year ago, I saw Tesla charging stations next to an Arby's. So charging stations are growing.

For battery technology, until the charging station can charge my battery in under 10 minutes so that I can drive at least another 100 miles, acceptance by the public ain't happenin'.

What's the Elio's main focus? Commuting to and from work. For an EV, that fits nicely... drive it to work if you live less than 25 miles from work, no need to have a charging station, drive it home, and plug it in for overnight. Problem is, the EV is expensive, and won't allow you to go wherever you want to go whenever you want to go there, since there's range anxiety and the battery takes too long to charge.

JMTC (Just My Two Cents).

Happy Friday everyone!

 

[AriLea]

Good job Jeff. And that is a good start on the subject.
I would suggest the counter argument should see each point as an opportunity, solve that set of problems and then you'll know how to sell EV's to Jeff. (and I suspect, many other people)

 

[Rickb]

I'll throw my perspective on the EVs, since I live in a rural area.

I love the idea of an electric vehicle. I'd love to buy and own one. But there are too many obstacles.

I don't see how EVs will become more affordable, as a normal ICE vehicle is not becoming more affordable, price continues to go up. In April, USA Today said the average price of a new vehicle (cars and trucks combined) is $33,560. The EV price may come down in the coming years relative to the cost of an ICE vehicle, but there's no way an EV will be bought by the average family in big numbers in the U.S.

For range anxiety, until the infrastructure gets established so that you can drive in any direction for 100 miles and be able to find a charging station, the range will stay... anxious. hehe Now in the middle-of-nowhere eastern Colorado, on I-70 in Limon, a year ago, I saw Tesla charging stations next to an Arby's. So charging stations are growing.

For battery technology, until the charging station can charge my battery in under 10 minutes so that I can drive at least another 100 miles, acceptance by the public ain't happenin'.

What's the Elio's main focus? Commuting to and from work. For an EV, that fits nicely... drive it to work if you live less than 25 miles from work, no need to have a charging station, drive it home, and plug it in for overnight. Problem is, the EV is expensive, and won't allow you to go wherever you want to go whenever you want to go there, since there's range anxiety and the battery takes too long to charge.

JMTC (Just My Two Cents).

Happy Friday everyone!

Elon Musk is working out all those issues. He is confident that we will all be driving EVs in the future. I believe him.

My & Elio will be parked next to my & EV.............my fleet of & vehicles.

Heck, most EVs will probably be self driving and purchased at the Apple Store. So much for pizza delivery drivers. Although, pizza delivery may be taken over by drones.
Happy Friday back at you!

 

[Jeff Porter]

Good job Jeff. And that is a good start on the subject.
I would suggest the counter argument should see each point as an opportunity, solve that set of problems and then you'll know how to sell EV's to Jeff. (and I suspect, many other people)

Very good point, each problem really is an opportunity. There's other issues too obviously: air pollution in big cities, the lobbyists paid by big oil companies, is the earth's supply fine for another 100 years of economically-retrievable oil.

 

[Jeff Porter]

Elon Musk is working out all those issues. He is confident that we will all be driving EVs in the future. I believe him.

My & Elio will be parked next to my & EV.............my fleet of & vehicles.

Heck, most EVs will probably be self driving and purchased at the Apple Store. So much for pizza delivery drivers. Although, pizza delivery may be taken over by drones.
Happy Friday back at you!

On the optimistic side of things, I will be excited to see Musk's solutions to these issues. Electric vehicles are very interesting to me, I'd love to see more on the road.

Would love to get a realistic predicted year from Musk, or EV expert:

• for the sedan class of cars, what year will all makes combined sell as many EV's as ICE's?
• for the sedan class of cars, what year will the avg price of an EV be lower than the avg price of an ICE? (this to me seems to be the main reason a person in the future will choose an EV over an ICE)
• for an EV battery, what year will the time to get a 90% charge be estimated at 15 minutes or less?
• for a self-driving EV, what year will the first one be offered by a dealer?

Not really interested in a prediction on the charging stations being increased, I think that will come along if/when more EV's are sold.

 

[Neal]

As I posted on another thread, Battery technology is lagging far behind most other technologies. They can't even get a very effective battery for Smartphone and tablets yet, so I have little faith that EV technology will be workable for most drivers anytime in the near future

 

[Critter]

I have been watching the Chevy Volt, Great ideal, But until the costs come down, not reachable for my budget.
A co worker drives one to work , uses electric to get to work, and gas to get home. We do not have any charging opportunities at our plant. He is creating a solar trailer, smaller than the one G1 had for sale, pull it to work ,and let the vehicle charge up, having extra batteries in the trailer, so it will charge the volt even on the rainy days. After the trailer is set up , he has talked about changing his Volt to a vehicle that is fully electric similar to the Leaf.

 

[AriLea]

lagging far behind most other technologies.

Probably it more accurate to say 'have a lot to catch up to'. But the time line, yes compared to the hopeful report it does lag behind.
But in comparison to those who know the technical detail, it's advancing fast.

For you and me we only care, when do we have something we would like for a price we can afford? Now that's the where the debate really exists, when.

It's not actually an IF question, it definitely is a when. But don't ever think ICE will be gone completely. That is highly unlikely for the long term.

 

[satx]

"Battery technology is lagging far behind most other technologies"

Not really, and the $100Ms, $Bs, going into energy storage research will produce batteries, capacitors, etc that suffice for the transport energy for vast majority of personal car trips.

gasoline and diesel fuel for transport will look as primitive and inefficient in a few years as horse-and-buggy