Waffling On Base Price. Can They Make $6,800?

[RUCRAYZE]

RE: the price, we are all looking forward to fit our individual needs/wants.
There are many bikers (me too) have spent 2x the base price for 2 not three wheels.
For myself, it's the closest thing to a Bike that these old bones can handle. And for me it's a want not a need. i.e. boys with their toys.
I do consider myself blessed to be in a position to call it my "&", and fully respect all our other reservationists for their choice.
Actual price, my guess with some extras -OTD 12k (I've already discounted my 1k all in and incentive ( I wrote off the 1k awhile ago)
If the Toyota comes to market, and I have that option, I'd probably go for the Toyota. (the sand is flowing faster through the hour glass for me)- Life, is like a roll of toilet paper, the closer to the end, the faster it goes!

 

[Gas-Powered Awesome]

When gas hits $4.00 a gallon again (and it will, if not more) [...]

I'm no longer sure that's the case. It may be cheap forever. That doesn't necessarily decrease the value of the Elio.

Oil is a limited resource, but it's value is based on old-fashioned supply and demand. Even the most pessimistic estimates still stay we have 50-100 years worth of extractable oil in the ground. And those estimates were made before the explosion in fracking.

All the developed countries are frog-marching their citizens away from oil with mileage, emissions, and alternative-fuel mandates to try and stem global warming. Oil has largely been displaced by natural gas for electricity generation. Solar energy prices dropped by 35% last year. Major (and minor) automakers are now making electric cars that are competitive with gas cars on range and win on ownership costs. Unrest in the Middle East doesn't seem to have the effect it used to. A raging civil war and ISIS/ISIL/Islamic jackholes violently seizing large swaths of several countries in the heart of oil country have had little to no effect on oil prices.

There will be an inflection point - let's call it "peak demand" - where all these changes will begin the permanent decline in demand for oil. From that point forward oil will have to stay cheap because there will always be a glut. If OPEC doesn't get their stuff together soon we may motor past that point before they can get gasoline back to $4/gallon.

That doesn't negate the value of the Elio. We still will have 9 Billion faces to feed at "peak humanity". Even if all existing cars were recycled and replaced with Elios, it would still be utterly unsustainable. But not replacing them, or replacing them Teslas instead of Elios or similarly light-weight (resource-wise) vehicles will mean many more of those 9 billion faces living in squalor.

 

[AriLea]

If we're talking ultimate's here, say in 50years, there is a high possibility that power-in-road will be the thing. Cars in that case have a small amount of battery storage and the rest would be 'metered' from the roadway.

Such a car would be quite interesting. In an Elio-layout that's maybe a 400-600lb vehicle with electric drive. A 4 seat sedan maybe 800-1600lbs. If motorcycle equivalents exist, 50%-70% the weight of current motorcycles. This does assume some structural materials improvements that are coming available now. (oops bit off topic now yes?)

 

[Gas-Powered Awesome]

If we're talking ultimate's here, say in 50years, there is a high possibility that power-in-road will be the thing. Cars in that case have a small amount of battery storage and the rest would be 'metered' from the roadway.

That would be highly, highly inefficient and extremely resource-intensive. If it's direct-contact (the only efficient method), you still have to lay (or suspend) 250,000+ miles of electrical cable, which takes tremendous amounts of energy and resources to manufacture and construct. If you are thinking inductive coupling, quintuple those resource and energy costs. Then couple in the losses associated with transmitting power over long distances. Ohm's Law is the Law, not just a suggestion. Not going to happen.

Cars will also not be getting lighter anytime soon. They've been getting ever-heavier since the 1980's. That trend will continue until there are no human-driven cars as we collectively have ever-decreasing tolerance for accidental deaths from any cause.

 

[Jeff Porter]

I'm no longer sure that's the case. It may be cheap forever. That doesn't necessarily decrease the value of the Elio.

Oil is a limited resource, but it's value is based on old-fashioned supply and demand. Even the most pessimistic estimates still stay we have 50-100 years worth of extractable oil in the ground. And those estimates were made before the explosion in fracking.

All the developed countries are frog-marching their citizens away from oil with mileage, emissions, and alternative-fuel mandates to try and stem global warming. Oil has largely been displaced by natural gas for electricity generation. Solar energy prices dropped by 35% last year. Major (and minor) automakers are now making electric cars that are competitive with gas cars on range and win on ownership costs. Unrest in the Middle East doesn't seem to have the effect it used to. A raging civil war and ISIS/ISIL/Islamic jackholes violently seizing large swaths of several countries in the heart of oil country have had little to no effect on oil prices.

There will be an inflection point - let's call it "peak demand" - where all these changes will begin the permanent decline in demand for oil. From that point forward oil will have to stay cheap because there will always be a glut. If OPEC doesn't get their stuff together soon we may motor past that point before they can get gasoline back to $4/gallon.

That doesn't negate the value of the Elio. We still will have 9 Billion faces to feed at "peak humanity". Even if all existing cars were recycled and replaced with Elios, it would still be utterly unsustainable. But not replacing them, or replacing them Teslas instead of Elios or similarly light-weight (resource-wise) vehicles will mean many more of those 9 billion faces living in squalor.

GPA, is it true that electric cars are out there today that are competitive with gas cars on range? Hybrids certainly are, but pure 100% electrics, I haven't seen any yet. Can you give an example? Thanks!

 

[AriLea]

That would be highly, highly inefficient and extremely resource-intensive. If it's direct-contact (the only efficient method), you still have to lay (or suspend) 250,000+ miles of electrical cable, which takes tremendous amounts of energy and resources to manufacture and construct. If you are thinking inductive coupling, quintuple those resource and energy costs. Then couple in the losses associated with transmitting power over long distances. Ohm's Law is the Law, not just a suggestion. Not going to happen.

Cars will also not be getting lighter anytime soon. They've been getting ever-heavier since the 1980's. That trend will continue until there are no human-driven cars as we collectively have ever-decreasing tolerance for accidental deaths from any cause.

From the wiki.(link). I see possibility. But, I did give it 50years right? :-)

As far as the weight, this isn't structural engineering improvements or rocket science, when you have just a motor/control and a couple batteries, you need less car to support that compared to current ICE drive or a huge electric power pack.

Newer approaches reduce transfer losses through the use of ultra thin coils, higher frequencies, and optimized drive electronics. This results in more efficient and compact chargers and receivers, facilitating their integration into mobile devices or batteries with minimal changes required. These technologies provide charging times comparable to wired approaches, and they are rapidly finding their way into mobile devices.

For example, the Magne Charge vehicle recharger system employs high-frequency induction to deliver high power at an efficiency of 86% (6.6 kW power delivery from a 7.68 kW power draw).

The European test of the concept.. link

 

[Gas-Powered Awesome]

GPA, is it true that electric cars are out there today that are competitive with gas cars on range? Hybrids certainly are, but pure 100% electrics, I haven't seen any yet. Can you give an example? Thanks!

Ever hear of a "Tesla"? A Tesla will take you coast-to-coast, no problem. Also the Chevy Bolt is/will be competitive. Naturally not the 500-600 mile range of a mild hybrid, but range competitive with 99.9% of the way people actually use cars.

From the wiki.(link). I see possibility. But, I did give it 50years right? :-)

That claimed 86% efficieny is useless when you have to cover every inch of interstate, every lane, with those coils. Do the math on the resource costs of ripping up every inch of highway and replacing it with embedded expensive metal coils and transmission line. Likely far more damaging than just sticking with gasoline! That's why the Elio is a much better idea, even if it cost $15,000 to get one.

 

[Rickb]

If we're talking ultimate's here, say in 50years, there is a high possibility that power-in-road will be the thing. Cars in that case have a small amount of battery storage and the rest would be 'metered' from the roadway.

Such a car would be quite interesting. In an Elio-layout that's maybe a 400-600lb vehicle with electric drive. A 4 seat sedan maybe 800-1600lbs. If motorcycle equivalents exist, 50%-70% the weight of current motorcycles. This does assume some structural materials improvements that are coming available now. (oops bit off topic now yes?)

Sounds like Arcimoto's vision for the future of transportation with the SRK.

 

[Rickb]

Tesla mentions a 700 mile range coming soon. Even a 200 + mile range EV is workable with Tes;a's network of Charging Stations being built across the country that brings the battery up to 80% in 30 minutes.......about the time I need for a pee stop, a slice of pie, and cup of coffee.

My understanding is that If I was driving a Tesla there is no fee to top off the battery...........so pie/coffee would be my primary traveling expense..........now if I only could afford a Tesla.

 

[AriLea]

Not completely useless. The thing required is enough charging to top off the battery.
Granted on this point, how much is enough? Anyway, it's a futurism. Certainly not now, but in the future, maybe.

Anyway, they are now doing this cycle for busses. If that infrastructure were adapted and more distributed, it's already doable.
Granted I don't think it's worth it yet, but the tech is operable now and could be improved to the purpose proposed.