Send Email To Dop To Show Support For Elio Motors Loan.

[Jay3wheel]

Paul ELIO if you are listening Don't let this fail. While I am the farthest thing from a socialist in this world this may be a time for the people to get something done. If financing becomes an issue put out the call many of us may just become silent investors at a low amount adding up to what you need.
200 million is not really a lot of money in todays world. I am in for a couple 1000.

Will that be cash or check?

 

[Ekh]

Dan,

I agree with all of that. I think we don't have enough words in our language to describe all the meanings of the word 'greed'. In this context it doesn't meet the 'mine-all-mine' kind of greed, but the simple desire to make money. I too hold the view that the investors are also contributing because, unlike other places they could invest, this vehicle has the added potential benefit to do the world a great deal of good. But this is the cart, not the horse and while both making money and doing good are powerful incentives, the fear of losing money is more powerful still. Any number of studies have shown that the buzz we get from getting a dollar is far outweighed by the anti-buzz we get from having one taken away.

Given the short timeline to meet their very clearly articulated objectives (Q3, 2015 deliveries), the ATVM loan cannot be gating for production. If so and it drags, they will look like utter fools now and that's losing a dollar (or more). Further buttressing these views are the fact that of the major statements Paul has made, he has equivocated on none of them recently, despite all the strum and drang about the ATVM loan. If faced with peril, he would have to budge on something, right? One option would be to adhere rigidly to design goals, but raise the retail price. Another would be to delay production, but maintain the other metrics. A third would be to get into production but miss his mpg, 0-60, safety, or other targets. Since he has steadfastly maintained that they will get into production with the exact vehicle in Q3, 2015, I feel very confident that the ATVM loan is not gating for those aspects, including initial production goals. What it does for them I haven't exactly figured out. Maybe given them leverage for 2016 production goals, which is plausible if we hold the view that they have enough funds to make the first run of, say, 30k vehicles, but not enough to go further?

Thanks everyone for contributing to a terrific topic. I was 'all in' before, but feel much more confident that I will see my Elio around xmas next year or early in 2016.

I have been assured that Paul knows he may have to bend slightly on his targets ... but that he will resist doing so unless absolutely forced into it. Where he won't compromise, I feel certain, is on safety and on MPG. He might have to fudge a couple of hundred on price -- and if so, he'd probably raise it for buyers who do NOT have all-in reservations. For them, it will be $6800, I feel certain.

Something that may get missed in all of this discussion is that a 1% variance on mpg or price does NOT gut the spirit of the project. Ten percent on mpg would really hurt -- but if there's a variance, it's going to be maybe 2 mpg, not 8!. I don't think 5% of price would hurt much, or even 8%. Once in production, they'll make that up in options in a heartbeat.

I think your comments about Paul's obvious confidence (as shown in remarks such as "the project at this point is an unstoppable force") and his visible level of relaxation in manner and body language speak more than anything else to the successful launch of the Elio.

I think the most probable missed target is roll-out of the first factory-made Elio. Annoying, yes, frustrating to us, you bet! But fatal to the project -- probably not. 3 months additional is a nasty hiccup, but 6 months would start shaking faith pretty badly.

In terms of the ATVM loan guarantee, at this point that's in the laps of the gods (or in the lapse of the gods, depending on your point of view). I suspect Elio is going to find a way to go ahead with or without it. Maybe foreign fleet sales .... but something's going to get production started.

The biggest problem I see is getting that whole facility ramped up, with people hired and trained, delivery mechanisms in place, and distribution centers built-out in 10 months flat. Elio doesn't have the resources of Eisenhower at D-day, but it's going to take organizational skills nearly that massive to get this job done in the time allotted. These cars are not going to spring like Athena from the forehead of Zeuss. So my best guess is that early production will not have the fancy ordering system and 24-hour delivery ... we reservationists will get served in a much lower-key, probably slower manner -- but we will be served.

 

[ks6c]

Dan,

I agree with all of that. I think we don't have enough words in our language to describe all the meanings of the word 'greed'. In this context it doesn't meet the 'mine-all-mine' kind of greed, but the simple desire to make money. I too hold the view that the investors are also contributing because, unlike other places they could invest, this vehicle has the added potential benefit to do the world a great deal of good. But this is the cart, not the horse and while both making money and doing good are powerful incentives, the fear of losing money is more powerful still. Any number of studies have shown that the buzz we get from getting a dollar is far outweighed by the anti-buzz we get from having one taken away.

Given the short timeline to meet their very clearly articulated objectives (Q3, 2015 deliveries), the ATVM loan cannot be gating for production. If so and it drags, they will look like utter fools now and that's losing a dollar (or more). Further buttressing these views are the fact that of the major statements Paul has made, he has equivocated on none of them recently, despite all the strum and drang about the ATVM loan. If faced with peril, he would have to budge on something, right? One option would be to adhere rigidly to design goals, but raise the retail price. Another would be to delay production, but maintain the other metrics. A third would be to get into production but miss his mpg, 0-60, safety, or other targets. Since he has steadfastly maintained that they will get into production with the exact vehicle in Q3, 2015, I feel very confident that the ATVM loan is not gating for those aspects, including initial production goals. What it does for them I haven't exactly figured out. Maybe given them leverage for 2016 production goals, which is plausible if we hold the view that they have enough funds to make the first run of, say, 30k vehicles, but not enough to go further?

Thanks everyone for contributing to a terrific topic. I was 'all in' before, but feel much more confident that I will see my Elio around xmas next year or early in 2016.

Tony, you were certainly top of mind when I spoke of experience and expertise - thanks for sharing your insights and analyses.

 

[ks6c]

Well said. Ford and Nissan both have received money from the ATVM pot though... not exactly a niche thing.

Thank you, Ty - I enjoy your insights, as well.

As for niche, I was thinking the energy/efficiency arena which is such a small space when considering all domestic manufacturing. Though there are some big players in that particular manufacturing niche, I retired from the food industry and can't think of any such funding available for the rest of the manufacturing sphere.

 

[Truett Collins]

All I can say is that I can't wait to drive my Elio around the Enchanted Circle, making several strategic stops to show it off at various city hall's, police departments, fire departments, and show that this old man is not a crazy as everyone thinks he is......(or maybe not quite as crazy)

 

[zelio]

I have been assured that Paul knows he may have to bend slightly on his targets ... but that he will resist doing so unless absolutely forced into it. Where he won't compromise, I feel certain, is on safety and on MPG. He might have to fudge a couple of hundred on price -- and if so, he'd probably raise it for buyers who do NOT have all-in reservations. For them, it will be $6800, I feel certain.

Something that may get missed in all of this discussion is that a 1% variance on mpg or price does NOT gut the spirit of the project. Ten percent on mpg would really hurt -- but if there's a variance, it's going to be maybe 2 mpg, not 8!. I don't think 5% of price would hurt much, or even 8%. Once in production, they'll make that up in options in a heartbeat.

I think your comments about Paul's obvious confidence (as shown in remarks such as "the project at this point is an unstoppable force") and his visible level of relaxation in manner and body language speak more than anything else to the successful launch of the Elio.

I think the most probable missed target is roll-out of the first factory-made Elio. Annoying, yes, frustrating to us, you bet! But fatal to the project -- probably not. 3 months additional is a nasty hiccup, but 6 months would start shaking faith pretty badly.

In terms of the ATVM loan guarantee, at this point that's in the laps of the gods (or in the lapse of the gods, depending on your point of view). I suspect Elio is going to find a way to go ahead with or without it. Maybe foreign fleet sales .... but something's going to get production started.

The biggest problem I see is getting that whole facility ramped up, with people hired and trained, delivery mechanisms in place, and distribution centers built-out in 10 months flat. Elio doesn't have the resources of Eisenhower at D-day, but it's going to take organizational skills nearly that massive to get this job done in the time allotted. These cars are not going to spring like Athena from the forehead of Zeuss. So my best guess is that early production will not have the fancy ordering system and 24-hour delivery ... we reservationists will get served in a much lower-key, probably slower manner -- but we will be served.

EM has never claimed that the sales room/distribution system will be up and running when they start production. Having the reservation system is part of helping them not to need that. :-) Z

 

[tonyspumoni]

Tony, you were certainly top of mind when I spoke of experience and expertise - thanks for sharing your insights and analyses.

Dan,

I feel pretty confident after all the views here that we'll all see our Elio's next fall. I just can't see a management and investment team this slick not having a good plan. Someone here a few pages back made what I think is a very astute observation - that this ATVM loan issue may be carefully manufactured to keep interest up and keep Elio in the news while more boring news - "Look, a motor!" - might have less impact. Like a sage Hollywood starlet, no publicity is bad publicity in this case and the ATVM loan "issue" keeps Elio in the news while they do stuff that, exciting as it may be to us, would not be that thrilling were this all tied up in a bow. Dunno.

Keep up the good threads - they are very interesting.

 

[Ty]

Thank you, Ty - I enjoy your insights, as well.

As for niche, I was thinking the energy/efficiency arena which is such a small space when considering all domestic manufacturing. Though there are some big players in that particular manufacturing niche, I retired from the food industry and can't think of any such funding available for the rest of the manufacturing sphere.

True. Good point.

 

[Jeff Porter]

Exactly Tony.
I sincerely thank Z for finding and posting this.
I was totally unaware that this was said way back then.

To quote the quote that Z quoted, "Our overall strategy takes us well through year one of production..."
Let's look at that again.
That was, "Our overall strategy", and not "The funding that we already know for a 100% certainty that we will have access to..."
We have to really be careful how we read these releases and what we choose to read into them.
They are, after all, composed and written with great attention and care given to the selection of details and semantics.
One result of their being so continuously vague is that each of us can take what they do say to mean whatever we wish it to mean.
That is exactly according to plan and is public relations, promotion, and the turning of a phrase at it's most masterful.
I, for one, am pleased beyond words that we have this kind of talent at the helm.
If you look back, this has been a pattern through the whole campaign.

I don't think EM wants to crystal clearly and completely imply that they "don neeed no stinking loans man".
That might just lead the feds into thinking, "Then, really, why should we give these guys a loan?"
But, on the other hand, the public needs to believe EM has plans upon plans to insure that it won't let the public down.
Tony, I thnk you knew and stated the answer to that a few threads ago.
The more it looks like a sure payback, the more it looks like things will not turn out like the last two DOE loan disasters.
And the better the chance are that 'America will realize just how many heroic geniuses have been hidden away at the DOE all this time'.

I see a similar situation in Saddam's telling the world that he had WMDs because he was afraid of Iran.
Unfortunately for him, he couldn't trust the U.S. enough to secretly whisper to our government that he, in fact, did not have any WMDs.
EM seems pretty unified in everything they're doing and in the course they've plotted for the near future.
I just believe that they're having to serve at least two masters and they need to walk a line between them for now.

Another aspect of EM's being vague is that it's good to keep us wondering and on the edge of our collective seats.
How do I keep people tuned in to my station and talking about my program so that my fame will spread throughout the land?
Serial Westerns and Mysteries, Soap Operas, "Reality Shows", and Talk Shows. Got to keep it stirred up a little out here.
Some information must be given away when it becomes necessary, but you seldom give more away than you have to.

And, of course, there's that real thing about the investors' collective desire for privacy at this point in time.

Brilliant. THAT'S why I have faith. THAT'S why I'm "All in".
For as much as I'm all in for the money and the car itself...
I'm in it for the identity and the belonging to something greater than myself.
I'm in it for the unique experience, the history, and the entertainment.

You simply cannot put a price on this kind of entertainment. Sitting back and watching it aaaaall happen.

Very well said! I vote for this being the "Post o' the Month". Where else to do we find a post that mentions Saddam, Elio Motors, Serial Westerns, and Zelio?

 

[Jeff Porter]

Absolutely, Jeff - major understanding! I would only make one little tweak...

I'm going to assume that PE is the idea guy/prime mover with pockets not quite as deep as his other founding investors. I'm also willing to bet his founding investors haven't found the bottoms of their deeper pockets, yet <grin>

IF (big IF) the additional private investment money comes from those founding investors (assuming deeper pockets) and PE can't match their additional contributions, the founding investors would actually see an ownership increase while only PE could (would?) see ownership dilution.

So, I see the ATVM loan as the vehicle for the founding investors to keep more of their personal money off the table (reducing risk) and as PE's vehicle for avoiding dilution. Rather simple.

Greed? I don't think I'd label it that (though I do believe in Gordon Gekko's "greed is good" quote, just not his execution) - if EM is extremely successful, PE will end up with a boat-load of money. Who knows, maybe he'll also become extremely philanthropic with his newly minted fortune and no one will label him greedy. But this isn't a sure thing, yet, so he could just be preserving a larger piece of a potentially smaller pie. Time will tell - but I'm betting on extremely successful and extremely philanthropic based on all that PE has demonstrated through actions and deeds (not just words) to this point.

I would also add that the vast majority of the discussion in this thread is a perfect description of how money moves in the start-up world - a lot of smart/experienced folks have really contributed for the benefit of forum members. The game-changer here is the ATVM loan, accessible only to a small niche of companies, and granted only to an infinitesimally smaller favored few. That gives PE/Founding Investors/EM a low-risk funding path not available to most.

Well-said Dan! Thanks, appreciate it.