Jeff Johnson Interview - Autoline After Hours #347 - 9/16/16

[Ekh]

I don't think that's a valid comparison. Many new cars are not offered with manual transmission. Even when they do offer a manual, once you move up to the larger engine and/or higher trim level, the manual is no longer available. I know I've bought a lot of new cars with automatic but would have gotten a manual if offered.

The full statistic is 93 to 7 where the choice is available. So you're right about that. And in many cases there is no choice. In any event the consequence for Elio is obvious. They have to be ready to deliver more automatics than standards by a wide margin and that will affect how cars are built. I do not know how they will work this problem out, but they have to be aware of it. It's not a mystery to those folks.

 

[outsydthebox]

If you are referring to http://www.elioowners.com/threads/j...ter-hours-347-9-16-16.7753/page-8#post-164172

What I pointed out, is that the clarification does not make sense to me. It would lead to either supply starvation or worse, extended inventory turn over times(1). The base vehicle with 7 colors and 2 transmissions, makes for 14 variants. The goal needs to be meeting real-time forecasts for the 14 variants, with them coming out to the transportation heading off to the marshalling centers without creating a log jam, using the marshalling centers as inventory cache points, maximizing inventory turnover at those marshalling centers.

Now if you put a constraint on what can be made on a given day, like only AMTs today, you are going to create an unwanted ripple effect in your supply chain. For Elio to be successful and meet its goals of get your Elio tomorrow, they are going to have to be able to pump out all 14 variants on any given day, depending on their forecast AND in an order efficient for loading on to transport to the marshalling centers.

So I don't by the "clarification", it doesn't make sense as it would be an impediment to Elio reaching their goals. Paul's vision, from what I've seen him say, is about as close to real-time fulfillment of a complex deliverable as I have seen. Most people are just glossing over the complexity of what needs to be accomplished with regards to distribution. Not every marshalling center is one day from Shreveport.

(1) Extended inventory turnover times are worse, each Elio just sitting some place has already been paid for by EM. Steel, paint, transmission, labor and transportation, etc. When they are starting up, they need to minimize the time from when that vehicle rolls out of the building in Shreveport to when it is loaded on the truck at the marshalling center heading out to the customer for delivery.

Well said. You obviously have some knowledge of the production process. But, (you must admit) even your well thought out explanation is ''simple" compared with the realities of actual production.
Once again, I am convinced that EM has the talent and experience and "adaptability" to handle the task.
If you are concerned that they are "missing" some valuable information that will doom them to failure, Please contact EM.
Peace

 

[c0yote]

I don't think that's a valid comparison. Many new cars are not offered with manual transmission. Even when they do offer a manual, once you move up to the larger engine and/or higher trim level, the manual is no longer available. I know I've bought a lot of new cars with automatic but would have gotten a manual if offered.

Don't forget that pricing will come into play as well. ~$7,300 manual vs ~$8,300 AMT could push more people to manual.

 

[Maurtis]

The 0-60 time was a little concerning to me. "Just below 11" vs the previously claimed 9.6 is really quite a difference. I fully expected it to be greater than 9.6 seconds in real world testing.... that being said though.... An increase of 0.5, or even a full 1.0 seconds is understandable when bringing concept to reality, but 1.3+ seconds more (assumed, due to the language used) is really starting to push the boundaries a bit.

Not looking for a rocket by any means, but when taking into consideration the action of merging on to freeways with short on-ramps & tractor-trailers going full speed, not wanting to move over..... that's when those 1.3 seconds will be very noticeable.

At "just below 11" it still puts it faster than the previous gen Smart ForTwo. Those were reported over 12s 0-60 (Motorweek said 12.2 for the 2008, C&D got 13.6 for the cabriolet and 14.4s for the hard top, weird).

My non-turbo Veloster was over 10s and it did take some planning while merging and passing on the highway, but I never felt in danger.

 

[AriLea]

If you are referring to http://www.elioowners.com/threads/j...ter-hours-347-9-16-16.7753/page-8#post-164172

What I pointed out, is that the clarification does not make sense to me. It would lead to either supply starvation or worse, extended inventory turn over times(1). The base vehicle with 7 colors and 2 transmissions, makes for 14 variants. The goal needs to be meeting real-time forecasts for the 14 variants, with them coming out to the transportation heading off to the marshalling centers without creating a log jam, using the marshalling centers as inventory cache points, maximizing inventory turnover at those marshalling centers.

Now if you put a constraint on what can be made on a given day, like only AMTs today, you are going to create an unwanted ripple effect in your supply chain. For Elio to be successful and meet its goals of get your Elio tomorrow, they are going to have to be able to pump out all 14 variants on any given day, depending on their forecast AND in an order efficient for loading on to transport to the marshalling centers.

So I don't by the "clarification", it doesn't make sense as it would be an impediment to Elio reaching their goals. Paul's vision, from what I've seen him say, is about as close to real-time fulfillment of a complex deliverable as I have seen. Most people are just glossing over the complexity of what needs to be accomplished with regards to distribution. Not every marshalling center is one day from Shreveport.

(1) Extended inventory turnover times are worse, each Elio just sitting some place has already been paid for by EM. Steel, paint, transmission, labor and transportation, etc. When they are starting up, they need to minimize the time from when that vehicle rolls out of the building in Shreveport to when it is loaded on the truck at the marshalling center heading out to the customer for delivery.

I think the change to steel has another good effect. Instead of keeping a stock of all panels in 7 colors then to be attached, the steel is just first assembled to the body and then the whole chassis painted in one of 7 colors and moves on. No stocking up involved. No color matching the exterior. Well OK doors and hood are still separately painted and attached.

 

[AriLea]

The full statistic is 93 to 7 where the choice is available. So you're right about that. And in many cases there is no choice. In any event the consequence for Elio is obvious. They have to be ready to deliver more automatics than standards by a wide margin and that will affect how cars are built. I do not know how they will work this problem out, but they have to be aware of it. It's not a mystery to those folks.

I don't think it's too difficult with some added storage at the refit shops. Just sometimes add in extra automatic build days, maybe 2 for auto, one for manual. Then between the shipping lot and the places where they put in options they have to have at most one or two days of Elios (7 colors) in stock. But keep in mind, they could mix this by shift or half shifts too.
Instead of an overnight-24 hour delivery they have a 24-72hour cycle. Delivery is still next day, but now pulled from cars in the stock-lot. In this case delivery to the customer could even be 12 hours shorter.
It's not as nice as just-in-time, just takes a bit of outside storage.

 

[Ty]

I think the change to steel has another good effect. Instead of keeping a stock of all panels in 7 colors then to be attached, the steel is just first assembled to the body and then the whole chassis painted in one of 7 colors and moves on. No stocking up involved. No color matching the exterior. Well OK doors and hood are still separately painted and attached.

Originally, they said they were going to paint the SMC panels. That's still the case as parts of the car will still be SMC... front clip, fenders, etc. But, the assembly process and painting process will still be the same.

 

[Jeff H]

Well said. You obviously have some knowledge of the production process. But, (you must admit) even your well thought out explanation is ''simple" compared with the realities of actual production.
Once again, I am convinced that EM has the talent and experience and "adaptability" to handle the task.
If you are concerned that they are "missing" some valuable information that will doom them to failure, Please contact EM.
Peace

Yes, I do admit it is at least a 30,000 foot view. The biggest point being that the vehicles don't just magically transport from the factory to the marshalling centers, so they are going to need to fold in their live sales data with their sales forecasts, to meet the vision and cash flow needs. To which, means as much flexibility as possible in production -- which excludes the idea of only this one day. When that happens, it will be due to the data not on a restriction from how the lines are set up.

 

[Frim]

I trust the Engineers....Sales guys tend to tell the customer what they want to hear

This response requires an "agree" button with emphasis "AGREE". A simple "like' is not sufficient. I once hired an outside sales person who sold services that we could not perform in my machine shop. He didn't have a clue what he was selling, but people believed him! Sales people know people. They don't have to know the product.

 

[Frim]

That goes both ways. Engineers attempting to market or sell their product should have an understanding of what it takes to sell.

EM needs to get engineers engineering and marketers marketing. Paul and Jeff are engineers not sales mentalities. Jeff came across as an uncomfortable spokesperson and not particularly confident. It was not a positive interview in the critical funding/production cycle when EM needs the most confidence and credibility.

If EM doesn't have specific answers in an interview and the corporate support team has to answer follow up questions by saying Jeff may be alluding to.........the interview message creates more questions than answers about direction and actual progress.............and I'm confused enough as it is.

I am reminded daily of "The Peter Principle". It is a must read for management. (Wikipedia)"The Peter Principle is an observation that the tendency in most organizational hierarchies, such as that of a corporation, is for every employee to rise in the hierarchy through promotion until they reach the levels of their respective incompetence." Peters explains that this is the reason for incompetence at every level of the organization. Your assurance that the guy behind the counter has just been promoted and doesn't have a clue what he is supposed to be doing.

You have to love it. Those of us who have served at the top of our game for years do not suffer from this malady.