Jeff Johnson Interview - Autoline After Hours #347 - 9/16/16

[Jeff H]

If you are referring to http://www.elioowners.com/threads/j...ter-hours-347-9-16-16.7753/page-8#post-164172

What I pointed out, is that the clarification does not make sense to me. It would lead to either supply starvation or worse, extended inventory turn over times(1). The base vehicle with 7 colors and 2 transmissions, makes for 14 variants. The goal needs to be meeting real-time forecasts for the 14 variants, with them coming out to the transportation heading off to the marshalling centers without creating a log jam, using the marshalling centers as inventory cache points, maximizing inventory turnover at those marshalling centers.

Now if you put a constraint on what can be made on a given day, like only AMTs today, you are going to create an unwanted ripple effect in your supply chain. For Elio to be successful and meet its goals of get your Elio tomorrow, they are going to have to be able to pump out all 14 variants on any given day, depending on their forecast AND in an order efficient for loading on to transport to the marshalling centers.

So I don't by the "clarification", it doesn't make sense as it would be an impediment to Elio reaching their goals. Paul's vision, from what I've seen him say, is about as close to real-time fulfillment of a complex deliverable as I have seen. Most people are just glossing over the complexity of what needs to be accomplished with regards to distribution. Not every marshalling center is one day from Shreveport.

(1) Extended inventory turnover times are worse, each Elio just sitting some place has already been paid for by EM. Steel, paint, transmission, labor and transportation, etc. When they are starting up, they need to minimize the time from when that vehicle rolls out of the building in Shreveport to when it is loaded on the truck at the marshalling center heading out to the customer for delivery.

 

[pistonboy]

I can understand the appeal of the AMT in a vehicle. The same manual transmission is installed in all vehicles.

The only difference is they also install an electronic control box on top of the automatic ones.

 

[Jeff H]

I can understand the appeal of the AMT in a vehicle. The same manual transmission is installed in all vehicles.

The only difference is they also install an electronic control box on top of the automatic ones.

And shifter type in the cabin, and linkages, and clutch peddle.

 

[Ty]

The paint line. Back when I was there, if I remember right, there was just one paint line. The vehicle would enter, be painted at several paint areas, and leave. The bots would clear or change tubes and the next would come in and get it's color. After painting, each vehicle went into a queue area like waiting on a roller coaster.

But, I admit I only got over to the paint area once. It was quite the walk from the final production line where I spent most of my time.

 

[Ekh]

If you are referring to http://www.elioowners.com/threads/j...ter-hours-347-9-16-16.7753/page-8#post-164172

What I pointed out, is that the clarification does not make sense to me. It would lead to either supply starvation or worse, extended inventory turn over times(1). The base vehicle with 7 colors and 2 transmissions, makes for 14 variants. The goal needs to be meeting real-time forecasts for the 14 variants, with them coming out to the transportation heading off to the marshalling centers without creating a log jam, using the marshalling centers as inventory cache points, maximizing inventory turnover at those marshalling centers.

Now if you put a constraint on what can be made on a given day, like only AMTs today, you are going to create an unwanted ripple effect in your supply chain. For Elio to be successful and meet its goals of get your Elio tomorrow, they are going to have to be able to pump out all 14 variants on any given day, depending on their forecast AND in an order efficient for loading on to transport to the marshalling centers.

So I don't by the "clarification", it doesn't make sense as it would be an impediment to Elio reaching their goals. Paul's vision, from what I've seen him say, is about as close to real-time fulfillment of a complex deliverable as I have seen. Most people are just glossing over the complexity of what needs to be accomplished with regards to distribution. Not every marshalling center is one day from Shreveport.

(1) Extended inventory turnover times are worse, each Elio just sitting some place has already been paid for by EM. Steel, paint, transmission, labor and transportation, etc. When they are starting up, they need to minimize the time from when that vehicle rolls out of the building in Shreveport to when it is loaded on the truck at the marshalling center heading out to the customer for delivery.

They know the ratio of AMT to Standard transmissions is going to be about 90 to 10, though at first it will skew as the market (early adapters, SILs) has a higher-than-normal percentage of people who prefer the stick. Nationally, it's 93/7, auto to stick. So they'll need to support that ratio sending cars to the marshaling centers.

I have never understood how Paul is going to move that many cars over those sorts of distances without stacking up too much inventory out in the field. But he's partnered with car-movers who, he says, have both he expertise and the lots available to get it done. You're right; it's a mammoth task.

One thing I'm not clear about -- whether you get an assigned serial number the moment you hit the "commit" button, and that car is tracked from factory floor to marshaling center, to you, or whether you simply get assigned one of the appropriate color/ tranny cars already at the marshaling center nearest you, and that's the car they option up in three hours or less (I will believe that when I see it), and send it off to you for delivery the next day.

The difference is that the first system puts more demands on the manufacturing system, while the second means stacking up more inventory at the marshaling centers. Either way, Paul's ambition is immense -- and so is his tenacity, so I'm not prepared to say it can't be done ... but it sure is going to be tricky to execute.

 

[Ekh]

And shifter type in the cabin, and linkages, and clutch peddle.

There are always more bits and pieces to any design change than people imagine. Thank you for pointing out a few of them involved in the AMT. Even if the tranny itself is the same box of gears, the other stuff adds up.

 

[Elio Amazed]

Been there, done that. Have family photos.

 

[MotorcycleKopp]

The 0-60 time was a little concerning to me. "Just below 11" vs the previously claimed 9.6 is really quite a difference. I fully expected it to be greater than 9.6 seconds in real world testing.... that being said though.... An increase of 0.5, or even a full 1.0 seconds is understandable when bringing concept to reality, but 1.3+ seconds more (assumed, due to the language used) is really starting to push the boundaries a bit.

Not looking for a rocket by any means, but when taking into consideration the action of merging on to freeways with short on-ramps & tractor-trailers going full speed, not wanting to move over..... that's when those 1.3 seconds will be very noticeable.

 

[Mel]

They know the ratio of AMT to Standard transmissions is going to be about 90 to 10, though at first it will skew as the market (early adapters, SILs) has a higher-than-normal percentage of people who prefer the stick. Nationally, it's 93/7, auto to stick. So they'll need to support that ratio sending cars to the marshaling centers.

I don't think that's a valid comparison. Many new cars are not offered with manual transmission. Even when they do offer a manual, once you move up to the larger engine and/or higher trim level, the manual is no longer available. I know I've bought a lot of new cars with automatic but would have gotten a manual if offered.

 

[Ty]

They know the ratio of AMT to Standard transmissions is going to be about 90 to 10, though at first it will skew as the market (early adapters, SILs) has a higher-than-normal percentage of people who prefer the stick. Nationally, it's 93/7, auto to stick. So they'll need to support that ratio sending cars to the marshaling centers.

I have never understood how Paul is going to move that many cars over those sorts of distances without stacking up too much inventory out in the field. But he's partnered with car-movers who, he says, have both he expertise and the lots available to get it done. You're right; it's a mammoth task.

One thing I'm not clear about -- whether you get an assigned serial number the moment you hit the "commit" button, and that car is tracked from factory floor to marshaling center, to you, or whether you simply get assigned one of the appropriate color/ tranny cars already at the marshaling center nearest you, and that's the car they option up in three hours or less (I will believe that when I see it), and send it off to you for delivery the next day.

The difference is that the first system puts more demands on the manufacturing system, while the second means stacking up more inventory at the marshaling centers. Either way, Paul's ambition is immense -- and so is his tenacity, so I'm not prepared to say it can't be done ... but it sure is going to be tricky to execute.

People buying after Elio has the marshaling centers up and running will get the color/transmission car from the marshaling center which will have the options installed at that time. There is no way they can deliver straight from the factory to the stores the next day. They'll basically do ours the same way with the exception that we know before ours is being assembled. So, we'll be able to track ours through the factory.

Actually, wouldn't that be neat? Some webcams at the factory and some kind of tracking software that would allow a buyer (especially us) enter our production number and follow our car through the assembly process. I wonder how many people wouldn't get much done while watching their Elio being built. Man, that would be fun!