Investor Question Answered...

[JNR]

but now there are just too many more interesting alternatives to consider, and so many more on the way soon, which the mass market sees every single week now.

With so many options and changes I see the Elio becoming more of a fun car, as the "and" car, but not necessarily a commuter due to the confinement aspects of its design, which is usually under duressful traffic conditions.

The statements I left in quotes above are only your opinions, and an out of touch opinions at that. I think that is where you have been wrong the whole way about Elio, I'll give you the poor business plan argument all day, but when a product is something people need, it will find a way to be successful.

There are plenty of interesting alternatives, but only to people with extra income.

Sure some of us will buy the Lit C1 if it comes out, or a Ford Fusion hybrid, or Prius, Tesla, BMW hybrid, etc... this has been proven over the last 15 years or so when the Insight and Prius first started selling in the US. There is a market for efficient cars, but IIRC the average household income is over $100k for these buyers.

Where you are 100% factually wrong is there are NO alternatives to the Elio for the actual point A to point B function that it serves. The Elio approaches the commuting problem from a standpoint of low cost simplicity, not new higher priced technology. The only real alternative for those with less money are econoboxes, and they still only get 2-4 mpg highway better than refined midsize and compact cars, sometimes worse. There is nothing close around the corner for anywhere near the same $, Physics is a bitch.

As a former poor person, my opinion is the only smart option to a poor person that commutes is the Elio. I am no means wealthy, so I will appreciate the few thousand $ Elio will save me every year. I suspect hundreds of thousands of lower to upper middle income commuters will feel the same way. Millions of compacts and sub compacts are sold in the US every year, only a small percentage has to find the Elio to be a reasonable alternative.

In regards to your Commuting "under duressful traffic conditions", IMHO that is pure and simple sissy statement. About 70-80% here have responded that we either ride or used to ride motorcycles, so we'll deal with the risk. I recommend you stay in your SUV or luxobarge to feel safe.

Finally, since you provide tons of unwanted unsolicited advice every day to all of us Elio hopefuls, I'm going to return the favor and offer this advice. Stick to your criticism of the business plan and funding and your large business economics lessons, that is in your wheelhouse. Trying to determine what the average American needs or wants is proving not to be your strong suit.

 

[jetpack54]

The statements I left in quotes above are only your opinions, and an out of touch opinions at that. I think that is where you have been wrong the whole way about Elio, I'll give you the poor business plan argument all day, but when a product is something people need, it will find a way to be successful.

There are plenty of interesting alternatives, but only to people with extra income.

Sure some of us will buy the Lit C1 if it comes out, or a Ford Fusion hybrid, or Prius, Tesla, BMW hybrid, etc... this has been proven over the last 15 years or so when the Insight and Prius first started selling in the US. There is a market for efficient cars, but IIRC the average household income is over $100k for these buyers.

Where you are 100% factually wrong is there are NO alternatives to the Elio for the actual point A to point B function that it serves. The Elio approaches the commuting problem from a standpoint of low cost simplicity, not new higher priced technology. The only real alternative for those with less money are econoboxes, and they still only get 2-4 mpg highway better than refined midsize and compact cars, sometimes worse. There is nothing close around the corner for anywhere near the same $, Physics is a bitch.

As a former poor person, my opinion is the only smart option to a poor person that commutes is the Elio. I am no means wealthy, so I will appreciate the few thousand $ Elio will save me every year. I suspect hundreds of thousands of lower to upper middle income commuters will feel the same way. Millions of compacts and sub compacts are sold in the US every year, only a small percentage has to find the Elio to be a reasonable alternative.

In regards to your Commuting "under duressful traffic conditions", IMHO that is pure and simple sissy statement. About 70-80% here have responded that we either ride or used to ride motorcycles, so we'll deal with the risk. I recommend you stay in your SUV or luxobarge to feel safe.

Finally, since you provide tons of unwanted unsolicited advice every day to all of us Elio hopefuls, I'm going to return the favor and offer this advice. Stick to your criticism of the business plan and funding and your large business economics lessons, that is in your wheelhouse. Trying to determine what the average American needs or wants is proving not to be your strong suit.

That's crystal clear! Hopefully for those that still don't get it!

 

[Snick]

"When it comes to credibility, practically no one here seems to even have a fundamental grasp of business, let alone any kind of understanding of how and what it takes to build a large complex volume automobile business, which is really much less about actually making the vehicles than it is creating an entirely new driving platform the mass market is not likely to adopt, all of which is practically impossible without massive funding." blah blah blah....

Some of the folks can be a little 'rabid' I suppose. And some of us are fully aware Elio is fighting an uphill battle here. Like almost vertical! But that doesn't mean I am going to root against them whether I have skin in the game or not. When your kids' or neighbors kids football team is losing 28-0 in the 4th quarter do you stop cheering for them? Hmm... bad rhetorical question. Maybe you do.

One thing about this site in my opinion: There is very little false information presented on this site that isn't corrected. There are a ton of opinions. I think everyone here is capable of figuring out the difference between opinion and fact. What some people choose to hear or believe is their prerogative. How they interpret direct quotes from Elio is also up to them. It just seems to me that whenever someone brings up the possible pitfalls here they do it in such a way that really turns people off. Change your approach, you'll get better results. you actually do more harm than good because people just ignore you.
But yeah... it must be difficult for you to express your thoughts to all of those who are so beneath you.
Do you really think you are the only one who understands the risks? Do you really think no one here has weighed the risks except you?

You bring up a very sound and well made point. Thank you. But, where is your defense when AriLea attacked me unprovoked? Does courtesy only run one way? From the doubting toward the believers?

Let's be honest here. Probably 85% or more of the site's users have NEVER worked in the problem-solving side of manufacturing in their lives, and take it totally for granted. As if things magically appear out of thin air. Without sweat. Without toil. Without long hours, missed weekends. There are a lot of childlike (not in the good way), unrealistic dreamers here with their heads in the clouds and not touching the ground. Guess what? They DO NOT HELP GET THE CAR BUILT.

At all! All they do is sucker in more poor, lost souls. EM needs a serious business plan and real help, not rabid, teeth-bared screechers that attack any opinion which differs from the group-think hive mind.

However, your points above are totally valid--I don't want to discount them. I've made my points. I think EM is badly managed and very lazy--unwilling or unable to jump in with full heart and soul and commit to Paul's vision. It angers me, because I have wanted a 3 wheeled car sooooo bad since I first saw a 2F/1R design in 1984/1885 in PopSci or PopMech.

I will not post any more criticisms on this matter unless asked.

 

[jetpack54]

You bring up a very sound and well made point. Thank you. But, where is your defense when AriLea attacked me unprovoked? Does courtesy only run one way? From the doubting toward the believers?

Let's be honest here. Probably 85% or more of the site's users have NEVER worked in the problem-solving side of manufacturing in their lives, and take it totally for granted. As if things magically appear out of thin air. Without sweat. Without toil. Without long hours, missed weekends. There are a lot of childlike (not in the good way), unrealistic dreamers here with their heads in the clouds and not touching the ground. Guess what? They DO NOT HELP GET THE CAR BUILT.

At all! All they do is sucker in more poor, lost souls. EM needs a serious business plan and real help, not rabid, teeth-bared screechers that attack any opinion which differs from the group-think hive mind.

However, your points above are totally valid--I don't want to discount them. I've made my points. I think EM is badly managed and very lazy--unwilling or unable to jump in with full heart and soul and commit to Paul's vision. It angers me, because I have wanted a 3 wheeled car sooooo bad since I first saw a 2F/1R design in 1984/1885 in PopSci or PopMech.

I will not post any more criticisms on this matter unless asked.

Snick, Snick, Snick.....what can I tell ya....you worry too much about saving your so called "lost souls"! They're not kids....they've got brains like you and they are capable of figuring out what they want! They can figure out the risks! Nobody will stop you or even arrest you if you show up in one of EM showings with a big sign saying "don't make a deposit until they start producing!" That's where you can make a big difference if you're so concerned!

 

[Snick]

Snick, Snick, Snick.....what can I tell ya....you worry too much about saving your so called "lost souls"! They're not kids....they've got brains like you and they are capable of figuring out what they want! They can figure out the risks! Nobody will stop you or even arrest you if you show up in one of EM showings with a big sign saying "don't make a deposit until they start producing!" That's where you can make a big difference if you're so concerned!

Well I have no way to respond other than here since you have disabled PM's. I really don't care about saving lost souls, I just want the car built. I am frustrated. This company is the wrong one and does not have the juice to get it done. So close, but so far --it sucks. My mistake is in taking their failure as personally as you have taken any criticisms of them.

 

[outsydthebox]

......... This company is the wrong one and does not have the juice to get it done......

EM is the ONLY company that WANTS to get this done. If they were to be "bought out" it would be for the purpose of shutting EM down. "IF" they fail, it won't be for lack of SWEAT. I support them for the LONG HAUL.

 

[dwoodul]

I enjoy reading the positives and the negatives in these threads. Both points-of-view are valid and keeps things both grounded and hopeful (for lack of a better word). I’m all in for $1,000 but I still give Elio about a 50/50 chance of succeeding because, as it has been mentioned, these start-ups are unbelievably tough to bring to fruition. I did the $1,000 reservation because I wanted to support such a good idea (and of course own one soon). I do believe with some funding surprises and luck the vehicle will be produced and once on the road only time will tell if it is accepted. I am looking forward to picking mine up sometime in 2016.

 

[Ekh]

Even most of the so-called naysayers would still consider themselves to be enthusiasts, and even buyers, including me, should it happen, and I'd like it to happen in a perfect world.

Its easy to like it, want it, but thats where emotions overtake the realities of what has and most importantly; hasn't happened, all this time so far, plus the substantial risks over the next year that are well beyond what happens or not in manufacturing operations.

Now a few of the genuine enthusiasts with some fairly obvious experience from the manufacturing area do demonstrate what are the innate risks to production, and they know there is a big difference between that and mass production, and what economies of scale need to happen, how a design must mature including the process/methodologies/equipment.

However, before anyone can even talk production and all those risks, not even counting the absolute true absurdity of building an entirely new combustion engine that is fraught with a thousand unknowns and what will be a few thousand guaranteed very expensive and changes causing even more major delays, all of which by itself is a death sentence for any privately funded operation, because a public one would have major coffers to pay for those guaranteed mistakes and missteps (why they go public in case people don't know), there is the bigger question about the business in general.

What I do believe, is that EM missed their window of opportunity, this is a vehicle that had a great chance say they were in production launch 5 years ago. The market was wide open at that point for something like this to attract major private investment, meaning the 200M (if not more) to get to production launch and probably 6 months or more beyond that. I have seen estimates by others that estimate that to build a new vehicle from scratch and into the market it takes $1B, at a mininum, thats the barrier to entry.

At this point however, the mass market has been flooded with a plethora of alternative choices, with announcements of choices and serious progress in new technologies being press released practically daily. Even Musk has released his patents this week, is likely collaborating with BMW, and the pace of change going on within the auto industry is fierce, they all know the race is on for future market share, and the transition to alternatives, and its unstoppable now.

The point is this pace of progress and change within the mass market, is enough to stall private investor interest, nomatter how cool the Elio may look, but its coming way too late, and it will be even another year or likely more until the first production units hit the road. PE is not interested in adding yet further risk or substantial delay on ROI from their investment, it scares them to death. So bad timing despite a great design may well be the culprit in the demise of EM, like so many other enterprises that failed to see the window of opportunity when it was red hot.

On top of that you have limited press from Elio, and even if/when it looks so adolescent, unprepared, and over-optimistic, that investors see right through how weak their position has become. However, most early adopters and reservation depositors don't consider such details, they are too caught up in what they want or they simply lack the business acumen to understand this is not going to happen.

As PE has said also, the Elio is an "and" vehicle, saying you keep your SUV. This means they are targeting customers with more dispensable income, to own one, and now with so many choices right now, and SO many more ahead its crazy, the market will be to parsed to support forecasting mass production demand for the Elio. So I am not expecting launch to be nearly fully funded.

Will it mean they won't go to production? I don't know, possibly, they may try to get creative, make concessions, creative partnerships with suppliers if possible, anything to keep the operation afloat, while minimizing burn rate, while praying to the car gods the mass market comes.

By that time however the mass market will have moved on years earlier.

Again, its a business, not about if it can be made, or how cool it is, when you are vying for mass market mindset, the big automakers can simply drop price to not lose market share also on something cool, and can influence politicians to crush EM, similar to how Tesla has been harassed in the past with the non-dealership model.

As for the believers with snarky comments and cute little pictures and such, they have no clue how much they continuously humiliate themselves in replies, clearly sitting around trying to think up something they think will sound clever or provocative, while "saying" they get the risks, and clearly they don't, as so few of them demonstrate almost any level of knowledge on any of concerns and risks, its just embarrassing, and thats the behavior that actually works in reverse in attracting others to blindly "believe".

I'm watching the evolution of all of this, its likely to make great lessons learned content in a future grad course.

I think you may be overstating the entry barriers. A billion seems steep to me. There are lots of specialty cars around that haven't that kind of capitalization -- but they are mainly exotics, not at all Elio's kind of thing.

i'm also not sure the market is "flooded" with inexpensive vehicles that would block out the Elio -- the Elio is SO different, yet so practical, that I think it has a good shot. Commuters, students, singles, empty-nesters might all choose it, many as THE car, others as an AND car. In my own case, I have an aging and increasingly thirsty Subaru to do the heavy lifting and hauling (of which there's plenty), but the Elio is perfect for 80-90% of the running around which is most of what I do …. meetings, doctors appointments, photo shoots, errands … the Elio is perfect for all that stuff.

As for the price point, Elio is promising a raft of options … all of which will increase the price and raise the profitability for the company. I think that's great, and the car would be a bargain at $9,500 if really tricked out. I'm pretty sure that if the car comes to production, it won't sell for under $7,500 and probably more … and that's OK.

Of course, that's only my opinion. I agree with you that it's a struggle getting to production. Elio's dearth of data about actual milestones and actual backing doesn't build confidence. And there's that weird decision to build a brand new engine …. that gives me the willies, because if much of the car's efficiency comes from aerodynamics and light weight, even a reasonably efficient existing engine would do fine. Fiat has a terrific little turbo diesel that's been around for years (drove one in an Idea, in Italy, and it hauled ass) that might work well, plus the Ford ecoboost base model -- surely pay-as-you-go for an existing engine beats the heck out of the major investment in a new engine and the investment to build the thing.

So yes, there are grounds for concern, but there are also grounds for optimism. Elio has gotten this far, public awareness is definitely building, and the car really does have appeal. If gas hits $5.00 / gallon, what do you think will happen?

 

[Ekh]

I enjoy reading the positives and the negatives in these threads. Both points-of-view are valid and keeps things both grounded and hopeful (for lack of a better word). I’m all in for $1,000 but I still give Elio about a 50/50 chance of succeeding because, as it has been mentioned, these start-ups are unbelievably tough to bring to fruition. I did the $1,000 reservation because I wanted to support such a good idea (and of course own one soon). I do believe with some funding surprises and luck the vehicle will be produced and once on the road only time will tell if it is accepted. I am looking forward to picking mine up sometime in 2016.

I'm hopeful of seeing mine in late 2015, but realistically, sometime in 2016 is more likely.

 

[Jim H]

Horn, you make some valid points and although you're not on board with the whole concept yet demonstrated by your negativity that it may not see production, it's not without foundation so I give you credit for that. I've been in the same situation with all kind of doubts but in the end after weighing all the risks, gave my 1K non refundable. It's one of those things you do in life that you know could kill you...but you do it anyway. My doctor told me to lay off on the steaks and bacon because my cholesterol is high but what the heck...it taste good so I still do it...in moderation.
Having said that, we've told these naysayers over and over again.....WE DON'T NEED TO BE SAVED....WE'RE FINE.....WE DON'T NEED TO READ LENGHTY POST FROM SO CALLED EXPERT THAT HAVE PSYCHIC ABILITY TO FORECAST EM DOOM! If you truly unhappy with the way things EM is doing it...this is not the place....you would be better off going to one of the showings HOLDING A BIG SIGN SAYING DON'T MAKE A RESERVATION UNTIL YOU SEE THE FINAL PRODUCT!!! If this is not clear enough for you....then I might as well speak a different language!
I'm not speaking for everyone here but nothing is over until EM says it's over so I'm waiting until they say so. If it works out for them, then I get my ELIO!

Jetpack54. Yes, you are speaking for me and I absolutely agree with you on this.