Investor Question Answered...

[Horn]

I agree with what you say most of the time WTE....but it has to be marketed as an "and" vehicle. Any car of this caliber will have to be an and vehicle.

If its not marketed as an "and" vehicle then this will be lost out to the families of more than 2 people.

Most families have 2 cars anyway. Instead of having the 4 door pickup and camry, dump the camry and have this. IMO many people would do this.

Do you really think most people would want this as their only option? Hell I have 3 vehicles, anything after 1 is an "and" option.

One problem I see is that several people are getting in the low to mid 40s with midsized cars. Soon 50 will be the norm. Now assuming gas doesn't sky rocket, I think most people would prefer the car with the more comfortable ride vs the less comfortable less roomy car that averages 70 mixed driving.

One problem with Elio right now is that each year cars do get better mpgs. If/when the elio comes out, the earliest model year will be a 2016....now more realistically it will be pushed back to 2017 or 2018 imo. There will be tons of changes by then.

If this was already out, I would have bought one. If this car comes out in 4 years, I don't know if there will be a big enough gap in MPGs for the average consumer to make the switch.

 

[Ty]

True. And Obama mandated 54 mpg CAFE by 2025 which will further erase the gulf. For many of us, a very inexpensive alternative to driving our larger vehicles will always make sense. I can't justify a $30K fuel skipper but a $10,000 is easier to figure out financially. I would assume as Elio gets through a couple years of production, the efficiency of their setup will increase. For a few years, Elio will be able to sell their Green credits for quite a profit. In fact, larger manufacturers may even rely on Elio sales and find it worth partnering up with them. Time will tell how successfully Elio evolves in an increasingly efficient marketplace.

 

[whattheelf]

I agree that its an "and" vehicle as well.

I would of bought an Elio two years ago if this was out then, but now there are just too many more interesting alternatives to consider, and so many more on the way soon, which the mass market sees every single week now.

With so many options and changes I see the Elio becoming more of a fun car, as the "and" car, but not necessarily a commuter due to the confinement aspects of its design, which is usually under duressful traffic conditions.

For that reason, it becomes a curiosity rather than a mass market car, so this is what I believe has held up the addiitonal funding needed for so long, as so much time passes, ultimately with so much choice and improvements, there is really no foreseen return on investment, if not heavy losses.

I believe we'll see a desperate effort to piecemeal their way into pre-production under much lower funding, and continue the praying, but without mass media blitzing and coverage, and mileage over 100MPG by that time, might as well make this a footnote in history.

 

[bowers baldwin]

Even most of the so-called naysayers would still consider themselves to be enthusiasts, and even buyers, including me, should it happen, and I'd like it to happen in a perfect world.

Its easy to like it, want it, but thats where emotions overtake the realities of what has and most importantly; hasn't happened, all this time so far, plus the substantial risks over the next year that are well beyond what happens or not in manufacturing operations.

Now a few of the genuine enthusiasts with some fairly obvious experience from the manufacturing area do demonstrate what are the innate risks to production, and they know there is a big difference between that and mass production, and what economies of scale need to happen, how a design must mature including the process/methodologies/equipment.

However, before anyone can even talk production and all those risks, not even counting the absolute true absurdity of building an entirely new combustion engine that is fraught with a thousand unknowns and what will be a few thousand guaranteed very expensive and changes causing even more major delays, all of which by itself is a death sentence for any privately funded operation, because a public one would have major coffers to pay for those guaranteed mistakes and missteps (why they go public in case people don't know), there is the bigger question about the business in general.

What I do believe, is that EM missed their window of opportunity, this is a vehicle that had a great chance say they were in production launch 5 years ago. The market was wide open at that point for something like this to attract major private investment, meaning the 200M (if not more) to get to production launch and probably 6 months or more beyond that. I have seen estimates by others that estimate that to build a new vehicle from scratch and into the market it takes $1B, at a mininum, thats the barrier to entry.

At this point however, the mass market has been flooded with a plethora of alternative choices, with announcements of choices and serious progress in new technologies being press released practically daily. Even Musk has released his patents this week, is likely collaborating with BMW, and the pace of change going on within the auto industry is fierce, they all know the race is on for future market share, and the transition to alternatives, and its unstoppable now.

The point is this pace of progress and change within the mass market, is enough to stall private investor interest, nomatter how cool the Elio may look, but its coming way too late, and it will be even another year or likely more until the first production units hit the road. PE is not interested in adding yet further risk or substantial delay on ROI from their investment, it scares them to death. So bad timing despite a great design may well be the culprit in the demise of EM, like so many other enterprises that failed to see the window of opportunity when it was red hot.

On top of that you have limited press from Elio, and even if/when it looks so adolescent, unprepared, and over-optimistic, that investors see right through how weak their position has become. However, most early adopters and reservation depositors don't consider such details, they are too caught up in what they want or they simply lack the business acumen to understand this is not going to happen.

As PE has said also, the Elio is an "and" vehicle, saying you keep your SUV. This means they are targeting customers with more dispensable income, to own one, and now with so many choices right now, and SO many more ahead its crazy, the market will be to parsed to support forecasting mass production demand for the Elio. So I am not expecting launch to be nearly fully funded.

Will it mean they won't go to production? I don't know, possibly, they may try to get creative, make concessions, creative partnerships with suppliers if possible, anything to keep the operation afloat, while minimizing burn rate, while praying to the car gods the mass market comes.

By that time however the mass market will have moved on years earlier.

Again, its a business, not about if it can be made, or how cool it is, when you are vying for mass market mindset, the big automakers can simply drop price to not lose market share also on something cool, and can influence politicians to crush EM, similar to how Tesla has been harassed in the past with the non-dealership model.

As for the believers with snarky comments and cute little pictures and such, they have no clue how much they continuously humiliate themselves in replies, clearly sitting around trying to think up something they think will sound clever or provocative, while "saying" they get the risks, and clearly they don't, as so few of them demonstrate almost any level of knowledge on any of concerns and risks, its just embarrassing, and thats the behavior that actually works in reverse in attracting others to blindly "believe".

I'm watching the evolution of all of this, its likely to make great lessons learned content in a future grad course.

Do you also tell everyone you see the is buying a lottery ticked how embarrassing it is to watch them waste their money on something that clearly they have very little chance of winning? Or do you just let them spend their money on what they want to?

 

[Horn]

True. And Obama mandated 54 mpg CAFE by 2025 which will further erase the gulf. For many of us, a very inexpensive alternative to driving our larger vehicles will always make sense. I can't justify a $30K fuel skipper but a $10,000 is easier to figure out financially. I would assume as Elio gets through a couple years of production, the efficiency of their setup will increase. For a few years, Elio will be able to sell their Green credits for quite a profit. In fact, larger manufacturers may even rely on Elio sales and find it worth partnering up with them. Time will tell how successfully Elio evolves in an increasingly efficient marketplace.

whoa whoa whoa. Large manufactures will not rely on Elio sales. If they really feared Elio, they would just buy them out.

 

[Horn]

Do you also tell everyone you see the is buying a lottery ticked how embarrassing it is to watch them waste their money on something that clearly they have very little chance of winning? Or do you just let them spend their money on what they want to?

$1 vs $1,000

Not a good comparison. If I had friends spending $100 or $1000 on lottery tickets I would recommend otherwise.....plus a lottery ticket is just a tax. Who the hell wants to pay more taxes?

 

[Dustoff]

And the "automobile/oil " lobby, or "whatever" they represent has spoken.
When Elio raises the white flag they will have won.
Until the Elio is driving the roads of the U.S. we will have to put up with the constant beating of the same drum.
The rancor of these "experts" has been very personal at times conciliatory and condescending.
They respect no opinions other than their own and definitely have no sense of humor.
Do not worry about anyone else's dreams or fortunes because you have absolutely no control over them other than to give a personal opinion.
I believe along with all but 4 or 5 members here that by Christmas of 2015 we will be operating our "and" vehicles.

Ok go offline and ask your handlers what to say next.
Oh, that will be very predictable. Just read all the previous posts.
If any of you are Fathers, Happy Fathers Day.

Good Night

 

[bowers baldwin]

$1 vs $1,000

Not a good comparison. If I had friends spending $100 or $1000 on lottery tickets I would recommend otherwise.....plus a lottery ticket is just a tax. Who the hell wants to pay more taxes?

The point is I guess I don't like being accused of being a dupe or something, lots of people spend money on dumb things, I knew someone who bought an $800 set of darts (3 darts), I bought a Zippo lighter for $60 and I don't even smoke. (it's really nice) I am college educated, 45 years old and a car/motorcycle enthusiast and collector, I do know what I am doing and actually read the agreement before I committed my money. If it happens great, if not I am out a grand and it wont be a life changing event, I wont loose my house or my wife or my happiness. You don't need to rain on someones parade just for the chance of saying "I told you so" a year from now.

2 cents

 

[Horn]

And the "automobile/oil " lobby, or "whatever" they represent has spoken.
When Elio raises the white flag they will have won.
Until the Elio is driving the roads of the U.S. we will have to put up with the constant beating of the same drum.
The rancor of these "experts" has been very personal at times conciliatory and condescending.
They respect no opinions other than their own and definitely have no sense of humor.
Do not worry about anyone else's dreams or fortunes because you have absolutely no control over them other than to give a personal opinion.
I believe along with all but 4 or 5 members here that by Christmas of 2015 we will be operating our "and" vehicles.

Ok go offline and ask your handlers what to say next.
Oh, that will be very predictable. Just read all the previous posts.
If any of you are Fathers, Happy Fathers Day.

Good Night

I don't represent oil lobbies or anyone else. I'm not a fan of "big oil". I am a fan of technology. Doing things smarter, better and more efficient than before. If this Elio was out right now, I would think some people would be making a mistake for not owning one.

Talking about condescending......

And you do have "some" control over peoples fortunes. I use to work in financial aid and steer people away from taking more school loans. Those "opinions" can carry weight and some control.

And be honest about the date if so. They plan.....plan to start in fall 2015. I think it would be safe to make an assumption there will be another deadline missed and the cars won't come out until summer 2016.

And my "handlers" (condescending?)..... What is wrong with people where they can't have a real discussion? Why not say "those are very valid points, but....." I see understand why people like this car. so do all of my "troll friends" that I don't talk to. I would just like to see some real progress. Some real answers that aren't vague.

Build 5 or 10 and put them on the road. Go take one and do donuts in a parking lot. That would shut up the "trolls". Give out 5 or 10 to people who love to travel. Let them drive it everywhere. That would get a great reaction.

 

[Horn]

The point is I guess I don't like being accused of being a dupe or something, lots of people spend money on dumb things, I knew someone who bought an $800 set of darts (3 darts), I bought a Zippo lighter for $60 and I don't even smoke. (it's really nice) I am college educated, 45 years old and a car/motorcycle enthusiast and collector, I do know what I am doing and actually read the agreement before I committed my money. If it happens great, if not I am out a grand and it wont be a life changing event, I wont loose my house or my wife or my happiness. You don't need to rain on someones parade just for the chance of saying "I told you so" a year from now.

2 cents

Its not about the people like you who seem to have plenty of money. I really don't like seeing anyone lose money. I have been duped due to wanting to believe something.

I'm not saying it "I told you so" a year from now. I'm saying "wait for real results".

I see this as an unnecessary risk. But really I hope it work.....I really do (this line will be ignored by several people). If you are more than willing to take the risk for me to be better off in the future than be my guest. I have just seen some people lose money and it isn't always easy.