Financing Elio Motors Development And Production

[whattheelf]

o·pin·ion
/əˈpɪn

yən/ Show IPA
noun
1.
a belief or judgment that rests on grounds insufficient to produce complete certainty.
2.
a personal view, attitude, or appraisal.

Definition of fact (n)
Bing Dictionary

• fact
• [ fakt ]

1. something known to be true: something that can be shown to be true, to exist, or to have happened
2. truth or reality of something: the truth or actual existence of something, as opposed to the supposition of something or a belief about something
3. piece of information: a piece of information, e.g. a statistic or a statement of the truth

There is a different between an opinion vs an informed opinion, which is why I am careful to always indicate. Now whether or not someone has the knowledge or experience to accurately measure an informed opinion, is another matter.

 

[Dustoff]

Correct. It applies to all.
There is more than one informed opinion here.

 

[pj rogers]

Maybe it is time for most of you to go back and re-read the EM presentation given to the folks in Pontiac Michigan in 2010, and remind your selves about what Paul elio was trying to produce. A lot of you are mistaken about his ideas and what he thought the elio would be.
I believe EM is not a scam or a Ponzi scheme, but a CLASSIC example of a well intended engineer who just has gotten in over his head financially and EM is becoming a "bait and switch" operation. We are now experiencing the "bait" part, with hundreds of people telling all their friends and neighbors to put a deposit down (as little as a $100 dollars) and help this company make this vehicle. BTW, If it fails, you will have to answer to them.
I also believe EM has been promised a huge amount of money if they can reach a number of deposits, some call that a trigger, reach the trigger and bam, I (and my friends) will give you enough money to continue. No one knows what that trigger amount is..but if you do read the Pontiac report, I think Mr. Elio believed he would by now, have twice the number of people sending their deposits. He did mention he thought almost everybody would want one, not just commuters. (see his numbers)
Today, there is a 14 month delay, is it to continue to get money? Is there a problem with the plant? I hope they are reconsidering the physical construction of the vehicle to gain more buyers, or are they just scared to death to tell all the owners they cannot meet the pricing originally advertised, because of the delays and cost over rides, but who know!
It is still a great idea, I am sure others will follow and may even be first with a similar vehicle. The basic elio built at the factory with only a transmission option is brilliant, all options put on by aftermarket saves a ton of money at the factory.
I am still in, my elio will be a toy, for the week-end run to no where and back, and just having a fun drive around my city.
Go, go, elio...I wish you luck.

 

[Craig]

A basic summary of my credentials are above, if you shared any similar background you wouldn't have to ask beyond that.

Now its someone else's turn, someone share their executive summary for me to take any opinion with any degree of credibility.

So far, only Kuda has demonstrated a credible understanding of the serious business issues EM immediately faces, and I don't need to ask for his credentials, its rather clear his opinion is rather qualified, and he chooses to also hope, though he knows the major hurdles in play now. I choose to hope, but past experience prevents me logically from believing.

So instead of coming across as a group of just gadget freaks with zero knowledge and experience in building a volume business, please, lay out at least something that indicates some shred of thought behind how you even think or know how EM is going to progress beyond perhaps producing a few hundred hand made "production" units.

At the end of the day, this is a business. In order for EM to succeed, it has extremely lofty set of published expectations on annual sales, NOT deposit reservations, that are needed to reach actual profitability. That model requires significant infrastructure that would mean they would be one of the top 5 vehicle makers. Then factor in numerous permutations their "business plan" doesn't cover, including projected ROI, etc etc., this plan fizzles out even further.

EM may be able to string this Ponzi scheme along for some time forward, but they will be wrapping thousands around each unit "sold" for as long as they exist, which is not a business, its a charity. Without MAJOR funding ahead, closer to at least 1B, that can support years of huge losses, something Tesla has and EM never will, EM cannot make a dime. Even if they magically are able to squeeze out the additional 150M+ they need immediately, this Ponzi scheme ends just sooner than later. The 150M gets them to their 20 yard line, only.

The devil is always in the details, and few either want, or are even able to discuss the details, that's why its so easy to get a lot of people to buy into a Ponzi sheme. The funny thing is few post mortem will ever admit to being snookered in, no one believes "they" are going to be fooled, even though all the warning signs were all there, the whole time. At some point you have to set aside what you may "want", and instead apply some degree of wisdom.

You stated EM was not a scam, yet you call it a Ponzi scheme. What is the difference?o_O

 

[Folks]

Investor confidence is not about people who plunk down measly reservations, those are not investments, those are imaginary placeholders for most'
Having been through this process several times at this very fragile stage, and in more than a few industries, and seeing what is and isn't happening, and knowing what it takes to launch such a complex consumer product, requiring a large infrastructure behind it, and not seeing nearly a drop of credible "plans", only a paltry laughable set of financials, its far far more than mere speculation when you can stick a fork in this puppy.

As I said before, a few will get some, most won't, and maybe a few more will too if some group of wealthy, but mostly ignorant (as many are) angel investors with a big soft spot for the Elio, jump in, to this help hope to see EM hit a Stage 2 level of real cash flow.

As in most business assessments, they are a multifaceted evaluation of every part of said business, to be able to project with a probability of success or failure. Tesla is 50X better positioned and capitalized than EM could ever dream of, and even Tesla has the deck heavily stacked against them, and Elio is nowhere near the caliber guy Musk is. I'm just being realistic, and pragmatic, which has served me extremely well, and this operation is perhaps one of the most impossible aspirations I've seen out of too many to count.

This goose is cooked unless something extremely dramatic happens in funding, and in plant renovations to meet some kind of schedule that doesn't keep moving out and out and out, and in significant hiring. So the probability of that happening given the track record so far, is unfortunately, zero.

The secret about Elvis from one who should know; What if this turns out to be a race like no other. No amount analysis will reveal nor quantitate if Elio comes up with a reliable car that excites us folks. The thing will go exponential. This thing is so much bigger than any Rock n Roll Star. Its a "hunk of burning love". LOL

 

[whattheelf]

WTE, your tie is too tight. It's a common problem in your type.

I have 23 years manufacturing experience, all of it on the floor, grease under the nails work. I'm the guy that makes all your problems go away when there's a crisis of the day. I and many others like me spend our workdays living "Made in America". Some of my parts are on every Kenworth truck built in the last 10 years or so running down the highway next to your Lexus.

I won't profess to know financials though. What I'm trying to figure out from your posts is how you know they are not seeking and possibly receiving the funding needed. As a private company, none of us that I'm aware of, have access to that information. I'm also fairly comfortable that reservations are NOT the majority of their finance plans, but rather mainly marketing.

My executive summary is post #103, Craig quoted it on post #111, and appeared to easily grasp where I am coming from.

My college degree is in mechanical engineering. My post grad is an MBA. I started on manufacturing floors myself, and retired securely at 45, and now at age 50. I now restore my own personal collection of vintage show cars and motorcycles in my own shop, start to finish. Thousands of my own personally fabricated sheet metal and plastic parts and bespoke custom work are also on other peoples' vintage cars worldwide, something I do because I enjoy it, not because I need the money.

I also drive a Prius, a Ford F150 when needed to plow my driveway and for (now) farm supplies, and I'm on the waiting list for the BMWi3, and as an avid cyclist now waiting delivery for my Elf from Organic Transport. Your blue collar I believe may be a little too tight, a far too common attitude problem that think they are the only ones that know how to get their hands dirty, every day.

EM seeking funding, thats common knowledge, and have been for some time, and have seen and heard Paul put the blame on this and that when he has been interviewed. I get it, I've been there, I was an executive in a few startups trying to secure funding, its not easy, and as Kuda has mentioned here, its a dance, unless you hit certain milestones/requirements set forth as part of the process, in dialogue with sources, funding is not going to happen, and yes they cannot just crowd fund their way to funding, as this isn't the next gadget on kickstarter to come along.

So, no one knows exactly what their funding options are, but given a certain level of knowledge about the process itself, bleed rates on current funding to support operations so far, and how far they've been delayed, the comments from the parish folks, the shopping around of the plant, the slow down in execution, is often a funding killer, almost always, and a door closer.

Without that 150M they are toast just to get started. After that we can talk whether or not they can get to Stage 2, growth, a whole other much bigger problem.

 

[Dustoff]

Speculate, speculate, only success or failure will determine the outcome.

 

[Dustoff]

My executive summary is post #103

Anyone can make an anonymous declaration.

 

[Craig]

My executive summary is post #103, Craig quoted it on post #111, and appeared to easily grasp where I am coming from.

My college degree is in mechanical engineering. My post grad is an MBA. I started on manufacturing floors myself, and retired securely at 45, and now at age 50. I now restore my own personal collection of vintage show cars and motorcycles in my own shop, start to finish. Thousands of my own personally fabricated sheet metal and plastic parts and bespoke custom work are also on other peoples' vintage cars worldwide, something I do because I enjoy it, not because I need the money.

I also drive a Prius, a Ford F150 when needed to plow my driveway and for (now) farm supplies, and I'm on the waiting list for the BMWi3, and as an avid cyclist now waiting delivery for my Elf from Organic Transport. Your blue collar I believe may be a little too tight, a far too common attitude problem that think they are the only ones that know how to get their hands dirty, every day.

EM seeking funding, thats common knowledge, and have been for some time, and have seen and heard Paul put the blame on this and that when he has been interviewed. I get it, I've been there, I was an executive in a few startups trying to secure funding, its not easy, and as Kuda has mentioned here, its a dance, unless you hit certain milestones/requirements set forth as part of the process, in dialogue with sources, funding is not going to happen, and yes they cannot just crowd fund their way to funding, as this isn't the next gadget on kickstarter to come along.

So, no one knows exactly what their funding options are, but given a certain level of knowledge about the process itself, bleed rates on current funding to support operations so far, and how far they've been delayed, the comments from the parish folks, the shopping around of the plant, the slow down in execution, is often a funding killer, almost always, and a door closer.

Without that 150M they are toast just to get started. After that we can talk whether or not they can get to Stage 2, growth, a whole other much bigger problem.

Craig quoted it on post #111, and appeared to easily grasp where I am coming from.

3 Card, there is no way in hell I would agree even remotely, with any thing you would come up with.

 

[whattheelf]

You stated EM was not a scam, yet you call it a Ponzi scheme. What is the difference?o_O

EM more similarly mimics that of a Ponzi scheme. The earliest ones in get their reward, which appears to the rest all is well, and then people stop getting what they invested, whether they be deposits for payment in full. A scam is no one gets anything but their money stolen.

If EM gets their additional funding, and note they are already 25M short of where they wanted to be now at 75M, they still need 150M more to "launch", after being around and showcasing for several years. That big gap is not going to come from deposits. The question is how long can they tread water for the 150M, and then tread water thereafter until actual sales demand sees a monthly rate just about the same now that they have in total for "reservations".

Therefore, say even they see 5K/mo unit sales per month, by some sheer marketing miracle, or 10K/month, the operation still runs at heavy losses, which is when also Ponzi scheme like activity kicks in, ie: people plunk down deposits, even at a "dealer", but the cars never come. I certainly cannot foresee EM floating much of a dealer "inventory", not even a Tesla could afford that.