Elio Crowdfunding

[Ekh]

I'd really like to know the line of reasoning folks placing bogus bids are following .... it stands to reason that EM will end up with some amount above their goal .... other than just trying to see if they can get a bogus bid by the screeners, I can't figure what they hope to accomplish

They may not have particular hopes -- just anything to F-U "the man" (meaning anybody trying accomplish something in the world) for the sake of being mean -- average age 17 (probably), sex male, emotional IQ "developmentally challenged", frontal lobe largely undeveloped.

 

[JEBar]

can't argue with any of that

 

[LillyMayPatterson #1685 & #5648]

I wish to believe it is real. But, that is good Ekh.

 

[AriLea]

These recent participants are making very high individual "bids." Fishy, IMO. Time to shut it down.

I'm sure there will be some adjustments come Monday, which will make Monday seem slower than it is.
Last nab for tonight. Possibly, I won't do the chart everyday anymore, just each week? We'll see. Certainly tomorrow. But from now on, projections will likely be unreliable at best, meaningless at worst. (just my guess)

At least someone will be empowered to say, "Will this fly? 10,000 people think so." (more or less)
150% Reserved $37,576,049 interest received so far 10103

 

[bowers baldwin]

 

[AriLea]

Morning everyone! Here's the charts for today. Definitely leveling out, with an 'average expression' up turn.
The slowdown immediately reflects in the 60-day projection (the End Game). That says in under 40 days the projection is 180%/45m.
Even so, for today, hitting the 150% mark is pretty much a win for Elio's everywhere.

 

[Ekh]

Morning everyone! Here's the charts for today. Definitely leveling out, with an 'average expression' up turn.
The slowdown immediately reflects in the 60-day projection (the End Game). That says in under 40 days the projection is 160%/40m.
Even so, for today, hitting the 150% mark is pretty much a win for Elio's everywhere.

View attachment 7075
View attachment 7079

Neat charts! Could you upload these as PDFs so old eyes can actually read them?

 

[AriLea]

You got it.. Attached inside Zip. (Won't upload PDF's directly)

 

[Ekh]

You got it.. Attached inside Zip. (Won't upload PDF's directly)

Thank you, that's very helpful. The slope of the daily amounts curve is clearly downward, natural death. Might spike with release of P5 or other big news, but the trend is there ... and besides, by the time P5 is out, I'm sure EM hopes "average expression" has an 80% conversion rate to "cash received!"

The spikes in average expression around Sept. 18 show either of two things: some heavy hitters in fact stepped up to the plate, or monkey business occurred. I'm betting on monkey business. But if you take those spikes out, the average expression has a very narrow range, which is good ... suggests that there are about 10,000 sane people out there who want in on Elio. I'm guessing the conversion-to-cash will be pretty high -- though not necessarily as high as 80 or more percent. We'll never know, of course, but it would make a great betting pool: how many expressions of interest actually convert to stock purchase? Another great betting pool question is how much EM actually raises from the campaign.

All told, this has been a splendid success for EM, and a riveting soap opera, keeping us all engaged for 4 months running! Wow!

 

[CompTrex]

Thank you, that's very helpful. The slope of the daily amounts curve is clearly downward, natural death. Might spike with release of P5 or other big news, but the trend is there ... and besides, by the time P5 is out, I'm sure EM hopes "average expression" has an 80% conversion rate to "cash received!"

The spikes in average expression around Sept. 18 show either of two things: some heavy hitters in fact stepped up to the plate, or monkey business occurred. I'm betting on monkey business. But if you take those spikes out, the average expression has a very narrow range, which is good ... suggests that there are about 10,000 sane people out there who want in on Elio. I'm guessing the conversion-to-cash will be pretty high -- though not necessarily as high as 80 or more percent. We'll never know, of course, but it would make a great betting pool: how many expressions of interest actually convert to stock purchase? Another great betting pool question is how much EM actually raises from the campaign.

All told, this has been a splendid success for EM, and a riveting soap opera, keeping us all engaged for 4 months running! Wow!

One issue is that if they change the rules of the game before they actually offer the stock.
They start out with a minimum commitment of $250, but if they change that to be a minimum of $600 when they finally ask for money, this makes any speculation near impossible.
Some people will up their amount from the 250 to 600. Others will drop out altogether. Tough to figure that in and impossible to try to deduct motives. Are they dropping out because they never intended to give money? Or they can't / aren't willing to up the amount? Are they upset with the rule change?