Electric Elio May Be Closer Than You Think. Or Not.

[Rob Croson]

Solar has come down to a price point where taking out a loan to install on a used house or including in the mortgage on a new house is a no brainer. The savings are greater than the financing costs from day one. Instant savings.

Maybe in El Paso, Texas. Not up here in Ohio. ROI for roof top solar up here is quite a long time. I've done some basic research into it, and it's just not economical.

 

[AriLea]

Maybe in El Paso, Texas. Not up here in Ohio. ROI for roof top solar up here is quite a long time. I've done some basic research into it, and it's just not economical.

I have a solar roof add-on by Elon M, it costs me $89/mo. In the winter it saves me about 2x of that, so $100 benefit, in the summer about 3x, so about $200. It;s a winner.

 

[Rob Croson]

I have a solar roof add-on by Elon M, it costs me $89/mo. In the winter it saves me about 2x of that, so $100 benefit, in the summer about 3x, so about $200. It;s a winner.

That's great. El Paso, TX (and probably your location in AZ), receives around 60% more solar energy per square meter per year than my location in Ohio. Not to mention local, situation-specific factors. For example, I'd have to cut down at least four trees on my property in order to remove the shade they throw on my house. But I can't cut down my neighbors trees. And let's not forget about the panels getting covered with snow during the winter, too.

I'm all for solar power, where it's practical and cost-effective. For me, right now, it's not.

 

[Sethodine]

Up here in WA it's more effective than most people think. PV panels lose effeciency as they get warmer, so the combination of long summer days and cooler temperatures actually helps production. And all the cloudy days we get don't hurt solar energy production as much as you might think. However, all of this is offset a bit by less winter daylight than lower lattitudes.

 

[Ty]

You won't have long to wait. This August Team TAISAN will use the few available cells made in the lab to build a go-kart version, to test heat endurance, etc. There have been false alarms in the past about revolutionary batteries, but NONE have
reached this stage of development or testingor have the pedigree of this battery- a premier engineering university
in Japan. Later this year a production line will build dozens of thousands of cells, and Team TAISAN will then
develop a battery pack for a full sized vehicle.I'll put my money on Power Plus Japan. Skeptics don't have any
information about this new battery.

"This stage of development" was back in 2014. May 13th, to be exact. Here we are, 2+ years later and no magic battery. They must be slow rolling into production for some reason.

 

[Ty]

Up here in WA it's more effective than most people think. PV panels lose effeciency as they get warmer, so the combination of long summer days and cooler temperatures actually helps production. And all the cloudy days we get don't hurt solar energy production as much as you might think. However, all of this is offset a bit by less winter daylight than lower lattitudes.

I'd look into panels for my house but I'm concerned about hail... it can get damaging and often in Nebraska!

 

[Rob Croson]

"This stage of development" was back in 2014. May 13th, to be exact. Here we are, 2+ years later and no magic battery. They must be slow rolling into production for some reason.

Here's a whole page full of magic battery technology:
http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/130...in-seconds-last-months-and-power-over-the-air
If half of this stuff plays out, we'll have some of Heinlein's shipstones before you know it.

 

[AriLea]

Here's a whole page full of magic battery technology:
http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/130...in-seconds-last-months-and-power-over-the-air
If half of this stuff plays out, we'll have some of Heinlein's shipstones before you know it.

Pretty obvious that Nanowire tech should be combined with Aluminum Air. (which may not be possible) That could be 5x power density over lithium with 200k+ recharge cycles. IF the charge times are improved with other tech as well, then you have a winner. Combining technologies takes a huge negotiation process between various patent holders. None of this seems likely in combination before 5years. But of each application there seems to be just a couple that might be marketed by next year.

I'm optimistic about EV tech, but not holding my breath on the time-line. Since most of this variability is in the battery area, a smart manufacturer should develop their EV drive tech now, and be flexible about what battery tech they buy later. At this point however, acquiring an EV drive is mostly a mater of structural engineering and contracting with a vendor. No-where near as much R&D as with ICE drives. i.e much less lead-time is involved.

Anyway, the future I'm most interested in is one where cars are still very viable after 30years of use. So then maybe people can resell them at the 15th year on the average. That effectively makes them 1/3th the purchase cost given that autos now are kept an average of 5years and resale value is low. That short time and low value is due mostly to maintenance/reliability fears. Unless this 30year car market price is 2x as much as ICE, in which case down to 66% the effective cost of amortization. To reduce one's up front payments, a loan for maybe 10years would be required.

You have to consider too, in such a world, the number of cars manufactured would be about 20% to 25% per person of what it is now. Unless mass transportation changes greatly in the US.
Europe/Asia definitely will invest more in commuter mass transit in the future. The US probably won't keep up mass transit with population growth.

 

[Muzhik]

Tangent alert!

This discussion about battery technologies comes just as I was having a discussion on an end-times web site I visit from time to time. I just had a fairly long posting, pointing out that China might not have nuclear subs but that doesn't make a difference. Diesel-electric subs have had 70 years to develop since the days of "Run Silent Run Deep." If you look at the new Dolphin class subs the Israelis just bought, you'll see that advances in everything -- diesel technology, air filtration technology, battery technology, etc. -- has produced submarines that cost a fraction of what nuclear subs cost, can run much, much further and faster underwater than your granddad's sub, and are almost as quiet as a nuclear sub. These new battery technologies aren't just for the consumer market. That may be why you're not seeing any advances in some of the battery techs described at the beginning of this thread.

(For you young'uns who don't watch WW2 submarine movies: the old-fashioned diesel-electric subs spent most of their time running on the surface. Their diesel engines propelled the sub as well as recharged their lead-acid batteries. They only went underwater, running on electric motors, when they were in attack mode. These new subs can run their diesels underwater for periods of time, and their batteries can run their electric engines much, MUCH longer than the old-fashioned batteries.)

 

[acamara]

Latest craze on Batteries that I was reading was to use Lithium/Sulphur instead of Lithium/Iron

One of the Universities is working on it now and they claim that the weight of the Lithium/Sulfur Mx is half the weight of the Lithium/Iron and has 10x the Kwhr rating and charges in half half the time as current Lithium Ion Batteries.

Can't recall what University it was.