Does The Elio *have* To Sell In High Volume To Succeed?

[Marshall]

I'm excited about the Elio - would like to have one and am considering buying some stock... and I see a lot of positive and encouraging things about it and the people behind it - it looks like the real deal.

But (you saw a "but" coming right I don't know a ton about the car industry but I'm esp. concerned I've seen things saying their business *requires* a pretty high volume of sales (even after these pre-orders are filled) - in order for them to even stay in business?

I first first heard this about 7 minutes into this youtube review by Autobytel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYbprouVRIw#t=7m

And I see the section (others here e.g. John Painter have referenced) explaining their low price being dependent on high volume: http://pdf.secdatabase.com/2968/0001214659-15-007920.pdf



I'm wondering has anybody heard the Elio guys talk more modest numbers and what it means if it takes several years to hit this high a volume, or if sales level off and they *never* hit this high a volume?

And not knowing much about car production I'm curious: Would there have been any alternative? i.e. some way to have "started smaller" and not even done a full on "production line" in the beginning? Maybe without the Shreveport plant?

(I guess part of the answer would be they couldn't get anywhere near the $6800/$7600 price point without that production line?)

I was trying to understand if there are contingency plans - some way to still succeed - even *if* the government loan doesn't come through, and even *if* these high volumes of order don't happen right away.

I suspect they will have to produce at high volume because of the fixed cost components of manufacturing. Those cost must be paid whether it's divided by one vehicle or 250,000 vehicles. At low volumes, it's simply too costly per unit to sell at a reasonable price.

 

[Marshall]

I can see two aspects that may make the EPA loan a bit iffy...
1. The autocycle categorization differs per state, making high-volume sales less likely
2. 90-95% of the drivers sit all alone in their cars; you don't need that much bulk on the road as Paul Elio has pointed out on several occasions... However, the Elio has a front stance that is as wide as that of a full-size car. Space is not gonna benefit.
3. The relative 'Alleingang' of Paul Elio, despite its partnerships.
4. Wouldn't the EPA ask for electric drive? I mean, EPA funding spent on developing yet another ICE...??

The ATVM Loan expanded it's scope to include ICE cars (or autocycles) with a MPG over 75MPG. So NO. It doesn't have to be ELECTRIC.

ps The EPA isn't providing the loan. It's a separately funded part of Emergency legislation left over from 2009. It is administered by the DOE.

 

[WilliamH]

The ATVM Loan expanded it's scope to include ICE cars (or autocycles) with a MPG over 75MPG. So NO. It doesn't have to be ELECTRIC.

ps The EPA isn't providing the loan. It's a separately funded part of Emergency legislation left over from 2009. It is administered by the DOE.

For the record.........
The department that administers the ATVM program is the DOE... The Department of Energy.
Please try to get the basic facts right.
Although the EPA and DOE sometimes work together they are separate organizations.

 

[bunchathrees]

For the record.........
The department that administers the ATVM program is the DOE... The Department of Energy.
Please try to get the basic facts right.
Although the EPA and DOE sometimes work together they are separate organizations.

He is not from this country so maybe we can cut him some slack. Many of us often misspeak/mistype. It does little harm. As long as we are vigilant and keep correcting those missteps, misinformation will not propagate.

 

[McBrew]

I've gone to the office here in Phoenix off of 24th street and there is no activity. They haven't returned my e-mail or phone calls. I read on the Corvette forum that the manufacturing plant is inactive too. Does anyone on here have direct knowledge of the actual product??? Thanks for any info....

Nice ride! Here's a pic of mine:

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jim H]

I'm excited about the Elio - would like to have one and am considering buying some stock... and I see a lot of positive and encouraging things about it and the people behind it - it looks like the real deal.

But (you saw a "but" coming right I don't know a ton about the car industry but I'm esp. concerned I've seen things saying their business *requires* a pretty high volume of sales (even after these pre-orders are filled) - in order for them to even stay in business?

I first first heard this about 7 minutes into this youtube review by Autobytel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYbprouVRIw#t=7m

And I see the section (others here e.g. John Painter have referenced) explaining their low price being dependent on high volume: http://pdf.secdatabase.com/2968/0001214659-15-007920.pdf



I'm wondering has anybody heard the Elio guys talk more modest numbers and what it means if it takes several years to hit this high a volume, or if sales level off and they *never* hit this high a volume?

And not knowing much about car production I'm curious: Would there have been any alternative? i.e. some way to have "started smaller" and not even done a full on "production line" in the beginning? Maybe without the Shreveport plant?

(I guess part of the answer would be they couldn't get anywhere near the $6800/$7600 price point without that production line?)

I was trying to understand if there are contingency plans - some way to still succeed - even *if* the government loan doesn't come through, and even *if* these high volumes of order don't happen right away.

Darren, welcome to the forum from a long term supporter and stock owner. I am one of the Elio optimists and made my first deposit in 2013 and purchased stock in the initial offering. Like all investments there is no guarantee. My investment was my way of supporting Elio and hopefully getting it off the ground. It is a great concept and I still believe I will have my Elio early next year.

 

[Jim H]

I've gone to the office here in Phoenix off of 24th street and there is no activity. They haven't returned my e-mail or phone calls. I read on the Corvette forum that the manufacturing plant is inactive too. Does anyone on here have direct knowledge of the actual product??? Thanks for any info....

Amarth, Welcome to the forum. You might want to sign up for the Elio weekly updates on their website. Plenty of things are happening and it's an exciting process. Welcome and enjoy the experience

 

[TCBronson]

I suspect they will have to produce at high volume because of the fixed cost components of manufacturing. Those cost must be paid whether it's divided by one vehicle or 250,000 vehicles. At low volumes, it's simply too costly per unit to sell at a reasonable price.

I have always wondered how Paul was able to quote a starting price of $6800 without knowing about all the variables.

 

[WilliamH]

I have always wondered how Paul was able to quote a starting price of $6800 without knowing about all the variables.

The same way you or I once told someone about our dream car without having any idea where we would get the money to make it happen. We all have dreams. Some of us just keep pushing to make them happen.

 

[Darren Cruse]

Thanks for all the interesting comments.

Earlier somebody asked if I'd reserved an Elio for myself and I didn't reply but maybe it's semi-interesting as an anecdotal example regarding the likelihood of EM selling these high volumes.

I have not (yet).

My hesitation isn't the money (whether the reserve or the full amount really), it's that:

a. I haven't found anything saying in Missouri I wouldn't have to get a motorcycle license. Might sound silly - but I've never been into motorcycles and the thought of doing a driving/riding test makes me hesitate (not even sure - would I wind up even needing to borrow a motorcycle just for the test?)

b. I live in an old 100+ year old house (think farmhouse type) with a short driveway. The "garage" is one of those types at the very back of my backyard (you know the type). My driveway doesn't even reach it. Right now my short driveway is occupied by my Chevy Volt. The old garage would need a good cleaning and organizing if it were to house the Elio. Obviously there are many two car families nowadays - so maybe not too relevant - but it's the second reason I've hesitated. Esp. since I don't really *need* the Elio - it's more something I'd be doing for fun.