Does The Elio *have* To Sell In High Volume To Succeed?

[3wheelin]

I really do like the Elio for myself, but I'm kind of an early adopter type I like new tech and unusual designs.

I was hopeful there was a way for the Elio to succeed first as a niche with people like me, but I'm a little doubtful it would ever reach "VW Beetle" like numbers, or if it did I imagine it might take years to get there. e.g. the VW Beetle was still a 4 wheel car - here the Elio really is requiring the buyer to accept a product quite different than anything they're used to.

But maybe this is why Elio Motors said they needed as much money as they did (I saw various numbers mentioned $185-$300 million not sure what was what). If you take the current number of reservations times the $5654 BOM "bill of materials" number that's just over $300 million. But maybe that's just coincidence? i.e. I assume they could/would produce a smaller number of vehicles and then take payment on those vehicles. This way they would only need money to cover the production of that initial "batch", and that could provide the revenue to pay for subsequent "batches". At least that was my thought. (it's probably *way* more complicated than this right.

oh well it's certainly interesting I'd like Elio to succeed (I was interested in Tesla for a long time and I've been kicking myself I never bought their stock back when it was real cheap!! I thought maybe Elio could be the next Tesla and I could be smart and buy their stock early this time!!)

My only other comment is - if the government loan never happens - I'll feel like in retrospect the Elio might have been easier as just one car from a bigger car maker that could have produced limited numbers from their plants along with their other vehicles. To adjust how many they produce in accord with the demand as it grows as people get used to seeing the Elio and hearing how cheap it is.

Like in partnership with an established company. Not trying to be negative (maybe the government loan will still happen), but I wonder if that's a possibile outcome as well? A partnership or a bigger company buying them out and taking the project over?

Otherwise it feels to me right now like things are boom or bust and not much in between. Either the government buys into this being the next VW Beetle and floats the loan, and the Elio becomes a runaway success and orders come in like gangbusters, or kaput.

Without real FUNDING information coming from EM itself, it's too early to say BOOM or BUST! Right now as it stands, it's more like a WAIT and SEE! The funding issue no doubt created a lot of insecurity and negativity but w/ a bunch of established companies associated with EM working together to bring our ELIO to market, I wouldn't hesitate to give them a greater than 50% chance of success! Wouldn't you?

 

[slinches]

I put the chance of success at about 60%, myself. That makes the stock an excellent bet even at the current ~$20/share. I could easily see it trading at $100-150 in 12-18 months if they can get into production and have solid consumer response.

 

[Coss]

There are multiple discussions about starting small and growing on this forum; I'm sure if you do a search you'll discover them.
I've talked to the people at EM and they have said that their primary target is the used car market.
With the Elio, you'll be able to buy a NEW vehicle, with a 3 year full warranty, for less than a lot of other used cars.
When you are buying a used car, you're buying a car that someone else no longer has a need for, so you have no idea how it was treated before you buy it; with the Elio, you know what you will be getting; plus you have the one option you'll never get in a used car; you can outfit it they way you want; not the way someone else wanted.
As for the make or break, I give EM better than an 75% chance at this point.

Darren, you said you're kind of an early adopter; how long have you known about the Elio and everything that's going on with the company?
Have you made a reservation yet? Any type; the refundable or the non-refundable.

 

[Abarth]

I've gone to the office here in Phoenix off of 24th street and there is no activity. They haven't returned my e-mail or phone calls. I read on the Corvette forum that the manufacturing plant is inactive too. Does anyone on here have direct knowledge of the actual product??? Thanks for any info....

 

[W. WIllie]

SEARCH is your friend.

 

[pistonboy]

I thought the ATVM loan was for those who had no other funding. If this is the case, EM could not tell other sources of funding had been secured. It would disqualify they from receiving the ATVM loan.

Is this correct or incorrect? Opinions?

 

[Rickb]

I thought the ATVM loan was for those who had no other funding. If this is the case, EM could not tell other sources of funding had been secured. It would disqualify they from receiving the ATVM loan.

Is this correct or incorrect? Opinions?

Tesla, Ford, and Nissan, had alternative funding options: Tesla $465 Million, paid back nine years early, Ford $5.9 Billion, and Nissan $1.6 Billion.

 

[Coss]

I've gone to the office here in Phoenix off of 24th street and there is no activity. They haven't returned my e-mail or phone calls. I read on the Corvette forum that the manufacturing plant is inactive too. Does anyone on here have direct knowledge of the actual product??? Thanks for any info....

The address in Phoenix is just a mail drop; the work being done on the 25 E series Elio's is going on up near Detroit; the 100 fleet vehicles will be built at the plant around December.
So what are you considering product?
If you're not current with everything that's going on with Elio Motors; you can either do a lot of catching up here; and as W. Willie mentioned, the Search function can find you any information you need to know.
Elio Owners Forum is not affiliated with Elio Motors.

If you do want to contact EM: you can do so at these addresses:

Elio CS: Toll Free: (844) 289-3546
Direct: (480) 500-6800 Ext. 1
Phone Hours: M-F 9am – 3pm Central Time

Emails:
tellmemore@eliomotors.com
orders@eliomotors.com
support@eliomotors.zendesk.com
https://reservations.eliomotors.com/customer/account/

Mailing address:
Elio Motors, Inc.
2942 North 24th Street,
Suite 114-700
Phoenix, AZ 85016

 

[voyager]

I can see four aspects that may make the EPA loan a bit iffy...
1. The autocycle categorization differs per state, making high-volume sales less likely
2. 90-95% of the drivers sit all alone in their cars; you don't need that much bulk on the road as Paul Elio has pointed out on several occasions... However, the Elio has a front stance that is as wide as that of a full-size car. Space is not gonna benefit.
3. The relative 'Alleingang' of Paul Elio, despite its partnerships.
4. Wouldn't the EPA ask for electric drive? I mean, EPA funding spent on developing yet another ICE...??

 

[bunchathrees]

The ATVM program is trying to drive innovation towards improved efficiency and as a result, less emissions. Should the program survive the never ending political maelstrom in D.C., the targets may indeed be moved out of reach for ICE-only solutions. Clearly there is movement in the industry toward electrics, but it will be a while before mainstream consumers can see themselves purchasing one. And given the differing charging "standards", industry itself has some consolidation/compromise in the coming years.

I can't see DOE (Department of Energy) - who administers ATVM - being in a position to rule out solutions from any source for many years.