Anyone Else Think It Wont Happen?

[tonyspumoni]

Because I cannot string two cogent thoughts together (yikes!) I'd like to draw attention to one more point - the ATVM loan. Elio Motors is surely hopeful that they get a positive response on the ATVM loan since, at least as I understand it, money is loaned on terms very like a corporate bond, which doesn't usually influence or alter ownership stake. I was certain that the ATVM would not fund in Q4, 2014 and was not confident it would fund in Q1 of 2015, which is looking increasinly unlikely given the lack of formal feedback from DoE.

With ATMV in play there will be no real movement on capitalization and thus no progress towards genuine production. If the numbers floated here are accurate they need more to get into production than has already been invested, which normally would mean that one new large investor funding fully would take a controlling majority stake. Smaller ones might take minority stakes but, if banded together, could still form a bloc with majority control, another unappetizing prospect for Paul and his allies. Paul isn't likely to offer to lose majority control a long as ATVM is a prospect and no capital provider investing with standard, profit-making motives would offer up all the cash with no control over how it is spent.

So we should all hold our breath and hope DoE is quick about it because the likelihood we see meaningful movement on production-enabling funding is very low until ATVM status is known.

 

[AriLea]

Because I cannot string two cogent thoughts together (yikes!) I'd like to draw attention to one more point - the ATVM loan. Elio Motors is surely hopeful that they get a positive response on the ATVM loan since, at least as I understand it, money is loaned on terms very like a corporate bond, which doesn't usually influence or alter ownership stake. I was certain that the ATVM would not fund in Q4, 2014 and was not confident it would fund in Q1 of 2015, which is looking increasinly unlikely given the lack of formal feedback from DoE.

With ATMV in play there will be no real movement on capitalization and thus no progress towards genuine production. If the numbers floated here are accurate they need more to get into production than has already been invested, which normally would mean that one new large investor funding fully would take a controlling majority stake. Smaller ones might take minority stakes but, if banded together, could still form a bloc with majority control, another unappetizing prospect for Paul and his allies. Paul isn't likely to offer to lose majority control a long as ATVM is a prospect and no capital provider investing with standard, profit-making motives would offer up all the cash with no control over how it is spent.

So we should all hold our breath and hope DoE is quick about it because the likelihood we see meaningful movement on production-enabling funding is very low until ATVM status is known.

Two strategic points to add. JMHO
Paul is fairly important to keep in play. Not mater the NaySayers comments, people will lose confidence if his role changes visibly. His 'vision' has been a very primary point sold to the public.
On a changing of control, is there a better business plan? Bumping the price up over 9-10k would change everything. They would not know the marketability of the car, if Paul's plan or indeed Paul's perceived control were to change significantly.

Next is the risk/profit of the business model versus the market value of static assets. On a change of control they would make an assessment.
In this one case, it doesn't help us that they have $100m in equipment to sell. It looks just a little too tasty to cash that in, scalp a quick profit and run.
This is where Paul has always been careful to select investors. Can he remain careful enough about new investors to keep progressing?

So I think, if they intend to keep the project, Paul's visible role and the Plan will not change that much.
If they are getting ready to bale, they will modify Paul's role, and sanction what he can say about it.
If the pricing PR changes, it may mean he's not in charge, and who actually is, still wants to make Elios, or has an underhanded bale-out plan for down the road.

Anyway, this is all conjecture very much linked to progress on funding. You can count on not hearing much about that until after the engine testing is complete.

 

[Hightech]

As of January 21, 2015 Elio Motors Inc. is still under review per DOE email

So atleast it's not failed the application yet. It's been pending for a long time, so that sounds like a good sign; but who knows how many other applications may be pending, could be 500 or could be 1. Even if it is just 1, maybe that one would eliminate the loan from Elio.

 

[BlioKart]

As of January 21, 2015 Elio Motors Inc. is still under review per DOE email

So atleast it's not failed the application yet. It's been pending for a long time, so that sounds like a good sign; but who knows how many other applications may be pending, could be 500 or could be 1. Even if it is just 1, maybe that one would eliminate the loan from Elio.

I think the Tesla loan took like 7-8 months. Not sure on any other approved applications.

 

[Dusty921]

Thanks for reading all of my posts in their entirety. LOL

I read all of your posts too!!

 

[Dusty921]

Evaluating the progress to date gives me the indication that getting the Elio to market can happen, but only with the common sense knowledge that the additional funding is needed or it won't happen. If there is a good news announcement on secured funding, EP5 prototypes are built over the next 6 months with ride and drive events scheduled, and the factory is on the way to being tooled up, the 2016 on track to production statement is real. We won't have a long wait to know with certainty whether or not EM will be successful.

Although I continue to support EM, my trust in EM took a big hit with Paul Elio's statement during the CES, "we are still on track to 2015 production" followed up by the delay announcement a few days later. Elio Motors has to 'show me the money' to buy that trust back.

Rickb,
For me it's really just a small "hit". The world of venture capital can make instant reversals and I'd like to believe that's what happened.
No question, some comment from Paul would soothe the jitters, but I wouldn't blame him for playing this close to the vest.

 

[Dusty921]

I think that's what happened with me. My post, in and of itself, was probably ok, but since I quoted the original post, the whole thing had to be deleted.
That's my theory.

Never having been "snarky", , I'm confused about what could have transpired to cause all of this commotion! .

 

[Smitty901]

PE has become all but irrelevant at this point. The ELIO is basically designed the idea sold. It has no money is the problem. PE can not fix that he has tried and failed. What PE has to say will be over looked by anyone looking to invest in ELIO. They want facts at this point not his dream. and rightfully so. Dreams get it started then the real world takes over.
There will be no P5 the P4 is it if it can hang on. Government money is unlikely. The loan will not go to someone like PE. He is not politically connected.
The Loans are not based on merit they are based on who you know. Tesla threw a lot of cash around to get the loan. ELIO does not have the cash to throw around.
What can save ELIO is money from a good investor that sees ELIO making a fair profit . 240 million will be no where near enough. But the cash it will take is pocket change to many that could make it happen. But they need to see a bright light at the end of the road not a dim sealed beam.

 

[CompTrex]

Never having been "snarky", , I'm confused about what could have transpired to cause all of this commotion! .

I guess that will teach you to pay attention to work during the day. You miss the fireworks!

 

[Dusty921]

Rickb likes this.
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Now let's see, does my ignore button reset, or do I have to petition for reset and how can I get that rainbow thing to show up,
with each additional, glorious Adios!