250,000 Units Per Year ?

[Ekh]

250K/year, for Elio company sustainability, doesn't sound outrageous.

The price of gas is down 40% in the last year, and could go lower, so the "save gas money" argument for the Elio is taking a big hit (for me personally, long distance commuter). However, remember the HUGE spike in producing/buying small cars in the early 70s after OPEC increased oil for $3 to $30+ per barrel. So Elio will benefit when pause in high gas prices ends.

So I'd say that gas going up, esp abruptly, in the next couple years will be a big push for the Elio as gas-money-saver.

So the dominant remaining argument for an Elio is the $6800 purchase price (if that doesn't become a bait-and-switch myth),

Some perspective on US car prices:

http://www.autoblog.com/2014/03/12/who-can-afford-the-average-car-price-only-folks-in-washington/

$6800 is $10Ks cheaper than many motorcycles, and 1/4 or 1/5 the avg price of a new car.

Size of the US motorcycle market: http://www.webbikeworld.com/motorcycle-news/statistics/motorcycle-sales-statistics.htm. I think a good number of motorcycle owners, prospective motorcycle buyers, who buy motorcycles for transport rather than recreation, could buy Elio instead.

I could see 100Ks of the 10Ms of fixed income, living-alone seniors buying an Elio to stretch their limited, life-constraining income.

Will BigAuto agitate to "Tucker" the Elio? I don't think so. The Tucker was "just another car". The Elio isn't, so isn't in direct competition with BigAuto's 15M/year car/light-truck sales.

When I do the math, even with gas at $2.00 the cost to own and operate my Elio will be about 40% that of buying and operating anything "normal." It still is the deal of the century.

 

[Ekh]

The more I think about it, the more I think the real business model looks something like....

1) Get the car out there to prove there is a demand. Sell it at cost if you have to, just get it out there!
2) Once car is established as a viable product, sell the company lock stock and barrel to one of the Big 3. They'll love it for the points on the CAFE standards alone!
3) Retire to the Bahamas.

Not that there's anything wrong with that business model, but it could explain the ultra low price and such.

The Big 3 might buy it and shut it down. Their biz models (and their values) are completely at odds with Paul Elio's. If the biz turns out to be viable, he'll keep it, create a trust binding on his heirs, or do something else to keep it from falling into the hands of the Big 3.

 

[Inigo93]

The Big 3 might buy it and shut it down. Their biz models (and their values) are completely at odds with Paul Elio's. If the biz turns out to be viable, he'll keep it, create a trust binding on his heirs, or do something else to keep it from falling into the hands of the Big 3.

You're assuming that Elio is some sort of saint. I'm assuming that he's simply a businessman.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

Regarding "virginity shields" I can remember in 1968 editing a news story about a British court that had found an accused rapist not guilty, on the grounds that even consensual sex was impossible in a MiniCooper. (They were a lot smaller then than they are today).

They might have been a lot smaller than the are today, but we have Viagria, and can go further

 

[Ekh]

You're assuming that Elio is some sort of saint. I'm assuming that he's simply a businessman.

Not a saint, but money is not his main motivator. His career started by failing to persuade Chrysler (I think it was Chrysler) that it was worth while to save $5.00 per car by eliminating one bolt and moving another one and inch or so. He failed, and that failure stung. But his belief in design-to-cost engineering has never wavered. He has also said more than once that ElioMotors is an exercise in social and economic development, and a statement that American know-how can bring American manufacturing back to life. None of these ambitions says "sell-out." I'm not sure how much his board members and chief investors share his sense of mission, but to some extent they must, or they wouldn't be in it this deep.

 

[tonyspumoni]

Not a saint, but money is not his main motivator. His career started by failing to persuade Chrysler (I think it was Chrysler) that it was worth while to save $5.00 per car by eliminating one bolt and moving another one and inch or so. He failed, and that failure stung. But his belief in design-to-cost engineering has never wavered. He has also said more than once that ElioMotors is an exercise in social and economic development, and a statement that American know-how can bring American manufacturing back to life. None of these ambitions says "sell-out." I'm not sure how much his board members and chief investors share his sense of mission, but to some extent they must, or they wouldn't be in it this deep.

Ekh,

I could not agree more. Spot on.

 

[TexasElio]

Thanks to all the forum members who have responded to my postings...the Elio Vehicle certainly makes for spirited discussion...

So...let's play a little game called "what if"!

"What if" the Elio Vehicle actually comes to market in the next 12-18 months...and the base price stays close to $6,800...MPG rating are confirmed to be near the original estimates...and crash tests rating turn out to be acceptable to consumers...

"What if" consumers flock to Elio Showrooms...and within 2 years...Elio is selling the 250,000 yearly units that Paul Elio has projected...

250,000 unit is a huge number for any niche vehicle...I'm assuming the major players such as GM...Ford...Toyota...Honda...would quickly develop a Elio type vehicle so they could participate in that 250,000 unit niche market...

So..."what if" Elio is a huge success story...but in the end...the major automotive companies come to market with their own "Elio Spec" vehicles...and severely dilute Elio's own customer base...and build their own interpretation of the Elio concept...

The major automotive manufacturers are very competitive...and tend to build products to fill any large niche that a another competitor opens up...

250,000 annual units will not go unnoticed...

Any thoughts?

 

[LillyMayPatterson #1685 & #5648]

Yeah, I got one. There is no way, on this blue earth the big guys can compete with $6,800.00, fully loaded. I say Don't sweat it. Elio is IT.

 

[tonyspumoni]

Rather than merely echo Ekh's very worthy views, I will support them with another example of an individual acting altruistically. The following is quoted from his Wiki entry. Ring a bell? It should.

Muhammad Yunus (Bengali: মুহাম্মদ ইউনূস; born 28 June 1940) is a Bangladeshi social entrepreneur, banker, economist and civil society leader who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for founding the Grameen Bank and pioneering the concepts of microcredit and microfinance. These loans are given to entrepreneurs too poor to qualify for traditional bank loans. In 2006, Yunus and the Grameen Bank were jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize "for their efforts through microcredit to create economic and social development from below". The Norwegian Nobel Committee noted that "lasting peace cannot be achieved unless large population groups find ways in which to break out of poverty" and that "across cultures and civilizations, Yunus and Grameen Bank have shown that even the poorest of the poor can work to bring about their own development".

What Muhammad did for banking, Paul can do for personal transportation. Meeting the goal of selling 250k units per year will not be demand-limited but supply-limited.

 

[JEBar]

.... the expenses locked in to the big 3's research, construction, distribution, sales, and service operation will not allow them to bring an Elio wannabee to the market anywhere close to the Elio's price point .... I'd be willing to see China produce a knockoff for domestic sales but don't know that they could compete .... it would be much easier for me to visualize some motorcycle manufactures taking a serious look

Jim