What Is The Latest Start Production Date?

Sega · Dec 13, 2018

Hypothetically, if all the reservation holders put up full amount to get the car and that was the main hurdle to get Elio off the ground, I think everyone should get some ownership. Say you only get something like .0001% of the company, that could.....could become a fortune later on. If you owned .0001% of GM, you would be a millionaire. Granted it would take a while, but you get my point.

Even with all that said, you are asking a lot out of the 60,000 ppl. Assuming that they all have that money, willing to spend it, and even trust Paul Elio at this point. You can't get 5 ppl to agree on something. It's not realistic though. I still don't see how this happens. I don't see any way to get the money.

raptor213 · Dec 14, 2018

The cash flow strategy relies on 3rd-party investment capital to get started, followed up with sales revenue to keep production running. If those two cash streams suddenly become one and the same, the business model topples.

Let's say you're SIL #500. Assuming you pay the balance due for your optioned-out Elio upon taking customer delivery, you're not actually paying for the components, assembly, labor etc attributed to your vehicle. You have the purchasers of the first 499 revenue customers to thank for your Elio. The company takes receipt of your cash and reinvests it in the company's operating expenses, covering payroll for the next 2-4 weeks, making interest payments on debt, earmarking a portion toward backdue sublease obligations, making suppliers whole for the next shipment of suspensions, tires, wiring harnesses, exhausts, body panels, etc. When you complete the purchase transaction for Elio #500, you're enabling the company to continue to operate so that there will be an Elio #1000 and so on.

If in lieu of investment capital from big hedge funds or ElioCoin holders, Elio took full payment from each of us reservationists up-front in order to get production started, explain to me how that would be a sustainable business model wherein the company receives no cash in exchange for vehicle delivery on the first 6x,xxx vehicles produced. Sure, perhaps there's a feasible pathway to reach production readiness, but then there's a dead-end.

RSchneider · Dec 14, 2018

What I have seen over the years is crowdfunding can really come back to bite you. Having people pre buy a product to fund the company becomes a pyramid scheme. When the first people get their product (who are screaming on every social media platform that they want their product) end up becoming Beta testers. The product never lives up to expectations and they want it to work as to what it shows in the ads and PR pieces. Then the company runs into an issue that they drown in debt because they have to fix those products and in the end never get up and running to full speed. Too many things on the plate.

As for Elio, they already did their crowdfunding and it becomes an issue of acceptance of getting people to pony up 100% of the money. There needs to be an incentive to do so and that turns out to be a situation where #100 gets pushed back because #64,999 put up the money to get in front of that person. That becomes a PR and legal nightmare. The ideal situation would be that 100% pony up the cash and everyone plays nice. As we all know, that never happens.

slinches · Dec 14, 2018

Yes, they would eventually need to transition to direct sales. Although, the upfront payment would include the profit on those vehicles as well. There would also be additional income from options on that initial batch of vehicles to help. It is possible that it could lead to a shortfall at some point in the production run due to the start up costs, but at that point they will be producing vehicles with buyers lined up to purchase. Elio would have a much easier time securing a loan or selling stock to cover the relatively small gap at that point.

As for the SIL issue, I imagine most of the initial participants would have one and the newcomers would fall in line after them, counting as new $1000 all-in reservations. That seems fair to me. It's no different than it is now.

raptor213 · Dec 14, 2018

If I remember old blog posts about the potential production output of Elio Caddo Operations (ECO), one assembly shift could pump out ~125k/yr while two assembly shifts could pump out ~250k/yr.

Even as a firm SIL holder, I'm not head-over-heels concerned about those reservation positions. Thinking practically, all existing reservations could be satisfied within a 6-9 month ramp-up, assuming assembly shift figures are realistic. After waiting this long, honestly what difference would it make whether you receive your Elio in September 2020 or January 2021, for instance? If this ever happens, it's plausible to suggest Elio Motors could satisfy all existing pre-orders in the first 2-3 quarters of production. Then the looming question of market palatability takes hold.

Maurtis · Dec 14, 2018

One issue with the reservation holders raising the money by paying full price ahead of time is where is the money coming from? Those having $9K in cash to burn on a possibility (still no guarantees of actual delivery or timeline) of getting an Elio is probably a pretty small subset of the reservation pool. And you are not going to get low interest financing for an autocycle that is not made yet.

And what portion of that pool will be willing to put up full price without a test drive, or even a completed pre-production model to see, AND has that money to spare. My guess is that pool would be VERY small. People are regretting their $1,000 deposit so I would think asking for 9X that would be a tall order.

Sounds like a fun possibility, but I think Elio would be hard pressed to find thousands of actual takers no matter what was promised in return.

Travelbuzz1 · Dec 14, 2018

Coss said:
You need to ask them where they're at in the funding phase, and when they predict the 76 weeks will start, or if the 76 weeks has started, if so, when did it start? Kinda put in a "feeler" to see where the start line is.

HERE'S MY REPLY.

The Elio Customer Experience Team (Elio Motors)

Dec 14, 10:45 EST

Hey Jerry,
Are you the designated question guy? That's a good role.

We can't discuss funding in this forum and will communicate everything we can through official means when applicable as we have historically.

Make sure to check out our blog at www.eliomotors.com/blog

Thank you,
The Elio Team

Rickb · Dec 14, 2018

EM itemizes their production funding needs, the anticipated production timeline, and their current financial status in their June 30, 2018 SEC Filings (official means).

RUCRAYZE · Dec 14, 2018

raptor213 said:
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/reviews/2019-toyota-prius-preview/

So Toyota unleashed the RAV4 AWD Hybrid this year, and announced that the Prius AWD-e will become available in 2019 with a similar electric AWD architecture. What got my attention is this mention:

"... Toyota isn't terribly worried about the continued success of the Prius in the face of automakers slashing non-SUV lineups. The company expects to sell about 50,000 examples of the Prius liftback in 2019, in addition to the 4.3 million it's already sold. Furthermore, about 25 percent of next year's sales are expected to come thanks to the latest trick up the Prius' sleeve: all-wheel drive."

Contextual anecdote -- if Toyota only expects to move 50,000 units of their 4th generation Prius hatchback in 2019, then how are we to believe the forecast production numbers of the Elio project, claiming market demand for 3-5x that figure annually?

As for economies of scale, assuming the Bill of Materials cost for each Elio vehicle is predicated on producing upwards of 250,000 units annually, but only a fraction of that target is met, a new fear that I haven't yet conceived comes to life: what if vehicles miraculously do roll off the assembly line, but once all reserved units have been delivered there is scant public interest in the vehicle, leaving no choice but to shutter operations. I don't know what's worse -- to have no Elio at all, or to own an Elio that I am unable to source OEM parts for. The most minor of repairs could set the stage for total vehicle replacement in the event parts aren't available.

I was sold on the pretense of off-the-shelf components from the conceptual beginning, but we all know where that legacy strategy ended up.

I believe parts have to be available for 10 years from manufacturer.
If you are lucky enough to own one of only 45k (I'm assuming when put up time comes many will bail), your kids/grand, greatgrand's will own a classic piece of automotive history ;-(

wizard of ahs · Dec 16, 2018

Travelbuzz1 said:
HERE'S MY REPLY.

The Elio Customer Experience Team (Elio Motors)

Dec 14, 10:45 EST

Hey Jerry,
Are you the designated question guy? That's a good role.

We can't discuss funding in this forum and will communicate everything we can through official means when applicable as we have historically.

Make sure to check out our blog at www.eliomotors.com/blog

Thank you,
The Elio Team

After 1822 days, still patiently waiting

What Is The Latest Start Production Date?

Sega

Elio Addict

raptor213

Elio Addict

RSchneider

Elio Addict

slinches

Elio Addict

raptor213

Elio Addict

Maurtis

Elio Addict

Travelbuzz1

Elio Addict

Rickb

Elio Addict

RUCRAYZE

Elio Addict

wizard of ahs

Elio Addict

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