Doubts...to Buy Or Not To Buy...

[Devilstower]

Warning: lost and somewhat despairing post

When I look at what Elio is promising, I feel like it's perfectly possible to hit the 5-star safety rating. After all, the kind of frame-cell they're proposing has a good history in racing and has been demonstrated to provide good protection with low weight. The ever-changing details of the NHTSA and insurance industry testing make it perfectly possible that Elio might turn out to be vulnerable from some unexpected angle and not get an actual 5-star rating when the production vehicles are actually tested, but I'm willing to bet (in fact, I have -- in the form of putting my deposit in) that they can build a safe vehicle that will see me through a 60 mile commute each day.

I feel like they can hit the mileage -- though this is a tougher task -- with the combination of reduced drag, light weight, and an engine tuned for miles over speed. Hey, I got more than 50 mpg in an actual Geo Metro once upon a time, and averaged 51mpg over a period of 7 years with a Prius, both of which are much heavier vehicles with a much higher Cd than I expect from the production Elio. Again, the government test cycle isn't kind to every vehicle, but I'd be very surprised if I couldn't consistently run up numbers of 80mpg in a vehicle like the one Elio is promising.

Which leaves me with just one concern. I honestly can't see how they can hit the $6800 price.

Yes, I know they're buying essentially "off the shelf" components were possible, and yes I know that the cost to the manufacturer is considerably lower than what the retail price of something like an engine, tires, etc runs to the consumer. However, looking at just the basic components, I can't see any margin in the cost. In fact, without expectations of near zero assembly, overhead and support and without assumption of massive quantity discounts, I can't see how the Elio can be built without taking a hit on every sale. Heck, just OEM cost on the airbags would eat something like 10% of the retail price. A Piaggio MP3 3-wheeled scooter with a 500cc engine sells $2k more without an enclosure, without airbags, without air conditioning, without... well, you get my drift. And while I know that the cost of the scooter reflects markup for dealers, shouldn't the Elio pricing reflect at least something of the cost needed to establish their direct-dealerships?

I know that many feel that the number being quoted to us for reservations represents a considerable discount over the ultimate walk-up price. Maybe, but if so, that seems like a strange business model. It means that each of the reservations ticked up actually means a potential loss. Not just that, it would mean that reservations are not indicative of sales potential down the road. Neither of these would seem to be a great lure to investors.

Personally, I'd be willing to pay considerably more (hey, I stayed signed up for an Aptera even as it moved above $20k, I'd certainly go beyond $10k for an Elio) but I know there are some here, perhaps many, who would not. I'd have been much happier if Elio had started this with the announcement that the first generation models were going to be $15k, but they expected to be able to lower the price in the future. I'd have still had my name on the list, along with an assuredly reduced set of early-adopters. But at least each of those names on the list would represent profit.

That $6800 price worries me, if only because of everything Elio is touting, it seems by far the most difficult to achieve.

 

[zelio]

Warning: lost and somewhat despairing post

When I look at what Elio is promising, I feel like it's perfectly possible to hit the 5-star safety rating. After all, the kind of frame-cell they're proposing has a good history in racing and has been demonstrated to provide good protection with low weight. The ever-changing details of the NHTSA and insurance industry testing make it perfectly possible that Elio might turn out to be vulnerable from some unexpected angle and not get an actual 5-star rating when the production vehicles are actually tested, but I'm willing to bet (in fact, I have -- in the form of putting my deposit in) that they can build a safe vehicle that will see me through a 60 mile commute each day.

I feel like they can hit the mileage -- though this is a tougher task -- with the combination of reduced drag, light weight, and an engine tuned for miles over speed. Hey, I got more than 50 mpg in an actual Geo Metro once upon a time, and averaged 51mpg over a period of 7 years with a Prius, both of which are much heavier vehicles with a much higher Cd than I expect from the production Elio. Again, the government test cycle isn't kind to every vehicle, but I'd be very surprised if I couldn't consistently run up numbers of 80mpg in a vehicle like the one Elio is promising.

Which leaves me with just one concern. I honestly can't see how they can hit the $6800 price.

Yes, I know they're buying essentially "off the shelf" components were possible, and yes I know that the cost to the manufacturer is considerably lower than what the retail price of something like an engine, tires, etc runs to the consumer. However, looking at just the basic components, I can't see any margin in the cost. In fact, without expectations of near zero assembly, overhead and support and without assumption of massive quantity discounts, I can't see how the Elio can be built without taking a hit on every sale. Heck, just OEM cost on the airbags would eat something like 10% of the retail price. A Piaggio MP3 3-wheeled scooter with a 500cc engine sells $2k more without an enclosure, without airbags, without air conditioning, without... well, you get my drift. And while I know that the cost of the scooter reflects markup for dealers, shouldn't the Elio pricing reflect at least something of the cost needed to establish their direct-dealerships?

I know that many feel that the number being quoted to us for reservations represents a considerable discount over the ultimate walk-up price. Maybe, but if so, that seems like a strange business model. It means that each of the reservations ticked up actually means a potential loss. Not just that, it would mean that reservations are not indicative of sales potential down the road. Neither of these would seem to be a great lure to investors.

Personally, I'd be willing to pay considerably more (hey, I stayed signed up for an Aptera even as it moved above $20k, I'd certainly go beyond $10k for an Elio) but I know there are some here, perhaps many, who would not. I'd have been much happier if Elio had started this with the announcement that the first generation models were going to be $15k, but they expected to be able to lower the price in the future. I'd have still had my name on the list, along with an assuredly reduced set of early-adopters. But at least each of those names on the list would represent profit.

That $6800 price worries me, if only because of everything Elio is touting, it seems by far the most difficult to achieve.

I would never have looked at any vehicle priced $15k simply because I can't afford the payments for it. Paul Elio has said one of his goals is to help people who need a new, good quality car, at a price they can afford even though they have limited income. They also need to not only buy that vehicle but also be abel to afford to drive it. For me the price is #1, mpg #2, 5 star safety #3, and the American built is gravy. I want to see our people put to work because the only way to get this economy going is for people to be able to buy things without going into huge debt or even worse, sacrificing other needs such as housing, food, medical, etc. :-) Z

 

[goofyone]

I am defending no one here, so hear me out, please. I, too have been a moderator of a forum

"First, an enthusiast site . . ." (pulled from beginning of second sentence in the second paragraph of post #6)

Sorry, I had to snip this, as on many posts throught, "apparent conference calls with the company," this and that, and those who have those "apparent conference calls" call themselves "afficianados." Really? YOU had a conference call with Elio? Where is the number, so I can call?

Hmm, I am sure their are many "afficianados" who "aspire" to be this or that. My problem is this: where are you getting all your information, as I read and have found more information on eliomotors.com and eliowordpress.com. Are you making these up, pulling them out of your ear, what? I know that other posts have made their way in here from media sites, as well. For instance, plant information, the formar plant manager of Chrysler back in 1996 (whom both of my uncles at Chrysler had worked for, and knew personally. I could have gotten REAL information on/about him, but no one asked) who now works for Elio.

As a matter of fact, I am sure that those who study the "science" behind "Star Trek," "Start Wars," and other science FICTION "aspire" to be great something-or-others. However, they spend their time, "studying" this fiction, instead of pursuing fact and using their creative minds.

I mean, I can peruse the 'net, look up "facts," actually write what I want, but if there is nothing concrete to back it up, then it is pure speculation/guestimation/conjecture/"leading the witness, your honor!"

Don't blow smoke, if you don't know, you don't know. Just simply say what so many others have said, "We'll have to wait and see."

I agree with not blowing smoke so if you don't know the answer to a question please be honest about it. It is also very true that the answer to many questions is either 'we don't know' or 'we have to wait and see'. At the same time not everything people say is made up, even if it can't be verified via public information, as in a group of enthusiasts some people will find ways to get more information than what is publicly available.

It is a fact that there have been select individuals in this community who have been invited to conference calls with Elio Motors as EM does sometimes want to get direct feedback from us and as a result these member also receive the opportunity to ask questions directly to people higher up the food chain than we normally would have a chance to speak with including Paul Elio himself. There are also members who have developed contacts within Elio Motors or their suppliers who can sometimes provide better insight into this process.

 

[outsydthebox]

Warning: lost and somewhat despairing post

When I look at what Elio is promising, I feel like it's perfectly possible to hit the 5-star safety rating. After all, the kind of frame-cell they're proposing has a good history in racing and has been demonstrated to provide good protection with low weight. The ever-changing details of the NHTSA and insurance industry testing make it perfectly possible that Elio might turn out to be vulnerable from some unexpected angle and not get an actual 5-star rating when the production vehicles are actually tested, but I'm willing to bet (in fact, I have -- in the form of putting my deposit in) that they can build a safe vehicle that will see me through a 60 mile commute each day.

I feel like they can hit the mileage -- though this is a tougher task -- with the combination of reduced drag, light weight, and an engine tuned for miles over speed. Hey, I got more than 50 mpg in an actual Geo Metro once upon a time, and averaged 51mpg over a period of 7 years with a Prius, both of which are much heavier vehicles with a much higher Cd than I expect from the production Elio. Again, the government test cycle isn't kind to every vehicle, but I'd be very surprised if I couldn't consistently run up numbers of 80mpg in a vehicle like the one Elio is promising.

Which leaves me with just one concern. I honestly can't see how they can hit the $6800 price.

Yes, I know they're buying essentially "off the shelf" components were possible, and yes I know that the cost to the manufacturer is considerably lower than what the retail price of something like an engine, tires, etc runs to the consumer. However, looking at just the basic components, I can't see any margin in the cost. In fact, without expectations of near zero assembly, overhead and support and without assumption of massive quantity discounts, I can't see how the Elio can be built without taking a hit on every sale. Heck, just OEM cost on the airbags would eat something like 10% of the retail price. A Piaggio MP3 3-wheeled scooter with a 500cc engine sells $2k more without an enclosure, without airbags, without air conditioning, without... well, you get my drift. And while I know that the cost of the scooter reflects markup for dealers, shouldn't the Elio pricing reflect at least something of the cost needed to establish their direct-dealerships?

I know that many feel that the number being quoted to us for reservations represents a considerable discount over the ultimate walk-up price. Maybe, but if so, that seems like a strange business model. It means that each of the reservations ticked up actually means a potential loss. Not just that, it would mean that reservations are not indicative of sales potential down the road. Neither of these would seem to be a great lure to investors.

Personally, I'd be willing to pay considerably more (hey, I stayed signed up for an Aptera even as it moved above $20k, I'd certainly go beyond $10k for an Elio) but I know there are some here, perhaps many, who would not. I'd have been much happier if Elio had started this with the announcement that the first generation models were going to be $15k, but they expected to be able to lower the price in the future. I'd have still had my name on the list, along with an assuredly reduced set of early-adopters. But at least each of those names on the list would represent profit.

That $6800 price worries me, if only because of everything Elio is touting, it seems by far the most difficult to achieve.

You and I share several concerns: How can they hit the $6800 price point?...I feel that getting the first years production spread all across the country, is going to be the most effective advertising. Then EM has something much better than sales people who are "paid" to promote it, they'll have "real vehicles" being promoted by satisfied customers, that can say, with conviction, "yes, 3-Wheels IS stable, the mileage is awesome", etc. Then they have a nationwide sales staff working for FREE!
The 84 mpg goal: Mindful that all mileage testing, so far, has been with 30 year old technology. Noticing the refinements between the p3 and the p4, I am sure added improvements to the aerodynamics. Just replacing those headlight housing that "stuck out", with ones that are "molded in. And adding the full wheel skirts. When I get mine, I plan on removing the side mirrors & adding rear view cameras. Remember the Geo Metro xfi only had one on the drivers side? Reason: Better mileage. I also plan to thermo-form longer front wheel skirts (Aptera-esk) and rear wheel skirt (more teardrop shape) for more improvements.
Start with a higher MSRP: Maybe looking back, they would have. But i tend to agree with Zilio, at 15K, I wouldn't bite. MAYBE 12K. YES at 10K, IF the quality is there. But I am happier paying less.

 

[Lil4X]

Agreed! Of all of EM's goals, the $6,800 price point is going to be the most difficult to meet. As the design is firmed up, commitments from suppliers finalized, and manufacturing facilities built up, more "real" numbers begin to emerge.

Then there's all these years of inflation . . .

 

[Sam]

When the UAW comes in the 6800 price will certainly go away.

 

[Dustoff]

$6,800 ?

A 2014 Nissan Versa at $10,990 weighs 2363 pounds. The cost to purchase is $4.65 per pound.
A ?year Elio at $6,800 weighs 1,200 pounds. The cost to purchase is $5.66 per pound.

The purpose of this is not to say we buy vehicles by the pound but the price we pay for a new Elio will be $1.01 per pound of materials more than a Nissan Versa.

If Nissan can sell for that cost why can't Elio?

Ok the fire suit is on so have at it.

 

[Rickb]

I think inflation will drive it just a few dollars higher, honestly. I remember the Mazda B-series pickup, "Only Mazda's got a truck for just $5795! Sakes Alive!" kept going up by a 100 bucks or so each year after that.

When I first discovered Elio back in 2007 when they were doing their Hello Elio! campaign to get a feel for the market.........they were quoting under $7,500 and 75 mpg.......so I'll give them a little leeway on final pricing. Frankly, back then I didn't think it would happen........now I think it will! Elio has a good Team with a common vision..............making it happen in a reasonable production time line.

 

[Craig]

When I first discovered Elio back in 2007 when they were doing their Hello Elio! campaign to get a feel for the market.........they were quoting under $7,500 and 75 mpg.......so I'll give them a little leeway on final pricing. Frankly, back then I didn't think it would happen........now I think it will! Elio has a good Team with a common vision..............making it happen in a reasonable production time line.

In 2010 they had it down to $5,500.00, MPG went from 66 to 83MPG and then they went and added the cost of AC and the power windows, another $495. I say make AC an option to keep down the base price. In Ohio I use the one in my Cav the 5 or 6 days a year it gets into the low 90s. Hell, bring back the little window wings they had back in the day. JMO

 

[Snick]

I agree with not blowing smoke so if you don't know the answer to a question please be honest about it. It is also very true that the answer to many questions is either 'we don't know' or 'we have to wait and see'. At the same time not everything people say is made up, even if it can't be verified via public information, as in a group of enthusiasts some people will find ways to get more information than what is publicly available.

It is a fact that there have been select individuals in this community who have been invited to conference calls with Elio Motors as EM does sometimes want to get direct feedback from us and as a result these member also receive the opportunity to ask questions directly to people higher up the food chain than we normally would have a chance to speak with including Paul Elio himself. There are also members who have developed contacts within Elio Motors or their suppliers who can sometimes provide better insight into this process.

I find it incredible that random, nameless, faceless internet people have an inside line to Paul Elio.
...
By incredible, I mean NOT credible.

Give me a break.