Where Do You Stand Now?

[#491]

Unfortunately the nine month delay in the plant is actually directly related to the further delay in building and testing the engines and prototypes. The reason is simply that the next round of funding needed to complete the vehicle development phase, approximately $35 million dollars, was tied directly to acquiring the plant within a reasonable timeframe and thus this round of funding completely fell apart when the plant acquisition was not completed in time. EM did have some extra money which is why some development continued, such as the P4 was built and tested and the first round of engine castings was completed, however the pace of this work was definitely slowed as EM has to make sure their finances would make it to the next stage.

Back in May Paul Elio did state that they would have to start the round of funding all over again and could not even begin that process until they first received the $7.5 million from IRG which was to happen a several weeks after the plant lease was finally was secured. This round of funding, which they had to negotiate all over again, is what EM has been working on all summer and now appears to have settled.

We actually know that there was a backup plan to use a former AT&T building close to the current plant in Shreveport. We have to remember that Elio Motors made a separate deal and owns all the equipment in the Shreveport plant so they actually did need to get the plant lease situation sorted out so as to know if they were using the existing plant or moving the equipment to the former AT&T building.

The nine month delay in the plant is directly tied to a year or more of delay in the project. This delay disrupted the funding to the point that Elio Motors had to wait until the plant issue was settled to even begin the next round of funding all over again as I am sure after the last plant deal fell through investors were very unwilling to commit funding until the issue was settled. This delay also caused engineering work on the project to slow down, but not stop, as the Elio Motors had to be smart with the funds they had on hand to ensure they would not run out before the issues were settled.

I agree with what you stated but have one complaint. As one of the first to reserve an Elio it was clearly communicated that production should start in mid 2014. I know the defination of "should" so no need to elaborate it for me. Elio should have been much more responsible in advertising this date. They knew what could cause delays and brushed them under the carpet as "no big deal" to entice people like myself in signing up early to keep the numbers growing. If Paul had been more truthful in letting everyone know his potential pitfalls the numbers would never have grown and I probably wouldn't have signed up so early. He knew if he told the public back then that it could potentially 2-3 years before he delivered then the numbers would not have been there to convince his investors. I'm glad I helped and I'm glad I have a low number and "may" eventually get to drive one but at the same time I feel lied to like a lot of other early "all in's" do. I see alot of people on this forum that call us complainers and that's okay. Maybe if Elio has to come out again and tell everyone it's not going to happen until 2016 then you'll get it. I keep my complaining to a minimum and still keep my creamsicle and sour apple pom poms handy but enough is enough. Paul has been in this game since 2009 and he knows where he stands in the alligator pit. He has enough information at this point to predict an accurate delivery date and if he fails to deliver in 2015 then the man is full of BS.

 

[CompTrex]

I agree with what you stated but have one complaint. As one of the first to reserve an Elio it was clearly communicated that production should start in mid 2014. I know the defination of "should" so no need to elaborate it for me. Elio should have been much more responsible in advertising this date. They knew what could cause delays and brushed them under the carpet as "no big deal" to entice people like myself in signing up early to keep the numbers growing. If Paul had been more truthful in letting everyone know his potential pitfalls the numbers would never have grown and I probably wouldn't have signed up so early. He knew if he told the public back then that it could potentially 2-3 years before he delivered then the numbers would not have been there to convince his investors. I'm glad I helped and I'm glad I have a low number and "may" eventually get to drive one but at the same time I feel lied to like a lot of other early "all in's" do. I see alot of people on this forum that call us complainers and that's okay. Maybe if Elio has to come out again and tell everyone it's not going to happen until 2016 then you'll get it. I keep my complaining to a minimum and still keep my creamsicle and sour apple pom poms handy but enough is enough. Paul has been in this game since 2009 and he knows where he stands in the alligator pit. He has enough information at this point to predict an accurate delivery date and if he fails to deliver in 2015 then the man is full of BS.

Interesting take. We shall see...

 

[Jay3wheel]

If you could give him the $185 million, instead of the Gov't. He should be in production soon.

 

[LockMD]

How did Goofyone get soooooo smart? Oh yeah I read his bio. Thanks for the info Goofyone.

 

[BillZ]

I'm in because I wanted to support the dream. I'm a little nervous to be All In because of the risks associated with the non-refundable designation, but that was my choice when I decided to make the leap from Want In to All In as well as to accept the risk and the potential to loose my investment in the dream.

I knew the chances relating to all the different hurdles that could obstruct the development and production of a radical new vehicle like an Elio. However, it was and remains a chance I'm willing to take. I remain optimistic about the chance to own and drive a first year production model Elio and accept all the risks that are associated with waiting for it to be built and the chance that said vehicle could require special care and careful maintenance as a result of being and early adopter.

Ask the people about their new iPhone 6 and the fiasco about IOX 8.? That's what we've signed up for and those are the kinds of risks we have accepted. Am I frustrated because I can't have my new car now? Sure. Is my "wanter" cranked up to maximum level and making me impatient for delivery? You bet. But I still believe and am proud to be supporting the dream!

Rock on Paul Elio!

 

[goofyone]

I agree with what you stated but have one complaint. As one of the first to reserve an Elio it was clearly communicated that production should start in mid 2014. I know the defination of "should" so no need to elaborate it for me. Elio should have been much more responsible in advertising this date. They knew what could cause delays and brushed them under the carpet as "no big deal" to entice people like myself in signing up early to keep the numbers growing. If Paul had been more truthful in letting everyone know his potential pitfalls the numbers would never have grown and I probably wouldn't have signed up so early. He knew if he told the public back then that it could potentially 2-3 years before he delivered then the numbers would not have been there to convince his investors. I'm glad I helped and I'm glad I have a low number and "may" eventually get to drive one but at the same time I feel lied to like a lot of other early "all in's" do. I see alot of people on this forum that call us complainers and that's okay. Maybe if Elio has to come out again and tell everyone it's not going to happen until 2016 then you'll get it. I keep my complaining to a minimum and still keep my creamsicle and sour apple pom poms handy but enough is enough. Paul has been in this game since 2009 and he knows where he stands in the alligator pit. He has enough information at this point to predict an accurate delivery date and if he fails to deliver in 2015 then the man is full of BS.

I definitely understand the frustration as I also would like to receive my new Elio as soon as possible. I can only imagine how frustrating this process must be for Paul Elio as he has been working on this longer than anyone.

I actually happened to write a post about EM's issues with sharing information just a few days ago:

Balancing openness with the realties of complex projects where design details and the project timeline are constantly in flux is an issue most public facing start-ups face. The public following along wants to know as many details as they can get however on the internet there are 'experts' on everything so any information released will be overanalyzed and second guessed many times over. If delays in the timeline occur or details need to be changed, as should be expected from complex projects, this just makes the situation even worse as mob mentality does not generally allow for these types of logical considerations.

I am certain EM feels forced to release an estimated date for production to begin however I doubt they really want to do this at all. For marketing reasons this is a date which can't be set too far in the future while at the same time they know they have to have as much cushion as possible as this date is essentially the completion date of the biggest phase of this project and is dependent on literally thousands of other details large and small.

As mentioned the absence of official information can also lead to problems with rumors. Rumors are very hard to control and to make things worse they can either be completely made up or be based, at least partially, on actually true leaks of information. I spend a lot of my time trying to sort out and confirm what rumors have some truth in them, vs what is completely unverified, vs what is EM's official position on the subject. Dealing with this is even hard for me as I have mentioned in the past that one of the most difficult things I encounter is trying to effectively communicate when I am writing based simply on my opinion versus when I am stating EM's official stance on something versus when I may have better information than what is available publicly however even that is somewhat dangerous as the information I may have is not public for a reason so things could, and have, changed on me.

Over time EM has learned some lessons about all this the hard way and as a result they now take their time and try to verify things as much as possible before officially releasing anything.

Personally, I believe there is unfortunately the real possibility of another delay as the current third quarter of 2015 goal is still doable but it is very tight. Right now my guess would be that production is more likely to begin a month or two later, in the 4th quarter of 2015. However the big question we all have is about EM's funding to complete the plant buildout. I know EM is working on several ways of resolving this issue however the way I see it is that if they do not have this money available by the middle of 2015 I doubt they will be able to begin production next year.

 

[Rickb]

Here's my thoughts on this...
I completely understand that the plant purchase / lease got moved back, and that there was nothing Elio could have done to avoid that 9 month delay. But what does that have to do with them getting the engine ready? And even, to a lesser degree, getting the prototypes designed and built? Now I don't know how or where they are going to build the prototypes. If they planned in the plant in LA, then I understand the delay. But if they are going to build them in MI, they what does the delay in LA have to do with that? I'm a little disappointed that they didn't do more work on the engine while they were waiting for the plant issue to work itself out.
Along those same lines, if the plant hit a road block, why didn't they have a back-up plan? I'm sure there are other factories that are sitting empty right now that would have worked just fine and not had the 9 month delay.

All that being said, I'm still at a ten in enthusiasm and confidence that it will get done.

Paul Elio spent 3+ years looking for production facilities and for a local political commumity for backing and financial support to lock it in............no other factories, as state of the art equipped, conveniently located for shipping, with a ready labor force, setting idol...............as ideal as the Shreveport Plant. Plans are forced to change during the complex design of a new vehicle concept and new startup business process. As far as the engine is concerned......IAV could be the reason for the delay. Perhaps IAV promised Elio a completed engine and didn't meet their deadline........out of EM's direct control. Elio is dealing with a host of Partners many playing key roles in production deadlines. I won't be surprised or angry if there is one more short production delay. Patience is the key.

 

[Music Man]

My faith in production is not slipping at all. I am very confident that production will begin. No doubts here. I was pissed that they came to Dallas and didn't let anyone know, but that doesn't take away any of my confidence.

I respect you or anyone else having doubts, I get it. But that isn't me.

Thank God for the STRONG foundation that buildings in earth quake zones are built upon. You are one of the STRONG foundation stones that this forum is built upon.

Those at the bottom, are the strongest and "shake" the least. While those at the very top tend to shake and sway like the top floor of the Sears Building in Chicago.

Neal, while I do tend to "vibrate" a tad, from time to time, I rather think of my position in all of this to be close to the bottom!

 

[#491]

I definitely understand the frustration as I also would like to receive my new Elio as soon as possible. I can only imagine how frustrating this process must be for Paul Elio as he has been working on this longer than anyone.

I actually happened to write a post about EM's issues with sharing information just a few days ago:


Personally, I believe there is unfortunately the real possibility of another delay as the current third quarter of 2015 goal is still doable but it is very tight. Right now my guess would be that production is more likely to begin a month or two later, in the 4th quarter of 2015. However the big question we all have is about EM's funding to complete the plant buildout. I know EM is working on several ways of resolving this issue however the way I see it is that if they do not have this money available by the middle of 2015 I doubt they will be able to begin production next year.

My prediction is mid 2016 IF the DOE loan goes through. If the DOE loan goes bust then at least I have a $1,000 T-Shirt. Based on what was said in previous posts about the DOE loan it may not even get approved until 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2015. This WILL be the reason given for the next delay announcement, and there WILL be one.

My point is this, just tell the truth. Everyone on this forum thinks their getting an Elio next year and their going to be disappointed. A majority of the posts I read are filled with expectations of sugarplums and Elio's by next Christmas. The grinch is going to steal that one. If everyone thinks their getting an Elio next year someone or something must have convinced them of that. Words like "likely", "should" and "expected" fall on def ears when "Production expected by 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2015" is plastered everywhere and highlighted in every news article I ever see. Even in the "Trunk" email I got today the second sentence reads "This is our first Friday of fall and all we can think about is taking our Elio for a fall spin next year! How awesome would that be?" What is that telling everyone????????? Just tell the truth. I want to see an offical Elio post that discusses all the possible delays and the potential results in terms of delays. Elio wont do that because they need the reservation numbers to keep growing. If they stop growing, potential investors will become nervous and may back out. Elio will make the next delay announcement in the 2nd quarter of 2015 and the new prediction will be 2nd quarter of 2016. If they do that then any new reservation holder will only think they have a year to wait and the numbers should continue to grow.

Just my opinion, but does anyone have $20 they want to lose?

 

[Mike W]

I'm in because I wanted to support the dream. I'm a little nervous to be All In because of the risks associated with the non-refundable designation, but that was my choice when I decided to make the leap from Want In to All In as well as to accept the risk and the potential to loose my investment in the dream.

I knew the chances relating to all the different hurdles that could obstruct the development and production of a radical new vehicle like an Elio. However, it was and remains a chance I'm willing to take. I remain optimistic about the chance to own and drive a first year production model Elio and accept all the risks that are associated with waiting for it to be built and the chance that said vehicle could require special care and careful maintenance as a result of being and early adopter.

Ask the people about their new iPhone 6 and the fiasco about IOX 8.? That's what we've signed up for and those are the kinds of risks we have accepted. Am I frustrated because I can't have my new car now? Sure. Is my "wanter" cranked up to maximum level and making me impatient for delivery? You bet. But I still believe and am proud to be supporting the dream!

Rock on Paul Elio!

I'm with you on all points BZ! My wife and I realized from the get go that there was a very realy possibility of failure in this venture, it happens with start up companies. We also recognized the very real possibility of not only success but the potential of what that success would mean long term, as far as what impact it might have on creating a whole new and successful class of cars that would possitively impact our country and maybe the world. So is the possibility of losing our money worth it? Yeah, we wanted to be part of something that might change our world for the good. Oh yeah, and we want a cool car too!