Where Do You Stand Now?

[ecdriver711]

You should not worry and enjoy a new bike. When the Elio does go into production you can make a choice then..

 

[Smitty901]

60% sure will never see the Elio produced. I had planned to keep my 2013 RGU and enjoy the Elio. Let dealership know I will be trading in August for the 2015 RGU. Done wrote the ELIO off.
Not bad mouthing Paul Elio. It is what it is. You can't build a company on marketing alone.
I knew it was a gamble. Far more than $1000 in parts and junk in the bad idea box left corner of the bike room.
Only bugged by one thing , that was ELIO giving the impression that production was not tied to the Government loan. When it is now clear that was the only chance it had.

 

[Rickb]

60% sure will never see the Elio produced. I had planned to keep my 2013 RGU and enjoy the Elio. Let dealership know I will be trading in August for the 2015 RGU. Done wrote the ELIO off.
Not bad mouthing Paul Elio. It is what it is. You can't build a company on marketing alone.
I knew it was a gamble. Far more than $1000 in parts and junk in the bad idea box left corner of the bike room.
Only bugged by one thing , that was ELIO giving the impression that production was not tied to the Government loan. When it is now clear that was the only chance it had.

I'm going with 40% sure we will see the Elio produced. I agree and was seriously bugged by that too. May as well hold on to some positive thoughts over the next few months while waiting on funding news from outside sources and watching progress with funds they have.

 

[Hotscoots]

I want to play too .....

Production in 2015: 0/10
Production in 2016: <1/10
Production in 2017: 4/10
Production in 2018: 6/10
Production never: 2/10

I think the vehicle design is too good to go away . Some big money is bound to step in . I think we will see Elios on the street , but not anytime soon .

 

[Norahsbed]

The Elio someday being produced 10/10. How (money) & when (date of production) I don't care to speculate. I know it won't happen before we need another vehicle, so I laid down some bucks on a used Subaru yesterday. A loaded Elios worth. We have 18+ months to bring the vehicle account back up and buy our Elios if production happens. In the mean time we'll enjoy the lower gas prices, nice weather (62 here today) and this forum!

 

[JEBar]

$240 million shortage has really changed my thinking .... if the government loan comes through, I put the odd of meeting the mid-2016 production goal as being 8 to 9 out of 10 on the positive side .... if the loan isn't approved, and they lose the factory, I have serious doubts that it will ever be built .... I do believe that the next few months is critical

 

[BlioKart]

$240 million shortage has really changed my thinking .... if the government loan comes through, I put the odd of meeting the mid-2016 production goal as being 8 to 9 out of 10 on the positive side .... if the loan isn't approved, and they lose the factory, I have serious doubts that it will ever be built .... I do believe that the next few months is critical

I agree mid next year is truly a shit or get off the pot moment.

I am in for the long haul I want to see Elio come to production. I am realistic person. I have always known It was a possibility of it not happening. I hope for me any every person who wants an Elio this will happen.

 

[Chaz]

What can I say, I guess I am a sucker and not too upset by the delay. I try not to be upset by things that I cannot control. I figured that there would be bumps along the way there always is.

 

[goofyone]

I would say realistically EM has about a year to get the money one way or another before they have to face the real possibility of losing the production facility. This is actually a long time so I believe they really need to continue what they are already doing which is work on various funding opportunities at once while also working to fund and complete the engine then move into pre-production vehicle testing as soon as possible. I believe that is the key to securing private funding and may even make a difference for the government as well.

If the government loan guarantee comes through any time this year I am at 10/10 EM will produce the vehicle next year with the timing of the loan determining the exact timing of production in 2016.
I would give EM about a 4/10 for receiving full funding via private sector investment as EM stands right now
I believe that rises to about 7/10 if EM can have several fully operational pre-production prototypes undergoing testing by about September of this year
That is a limited time window however as I would say that if the money has not happened by the end of 2015 the odds of EM's success drops in the first quarter of 2016 to 3/10
After the first quarter of 2016 I believe this plan is pretty much shot as I highly doubt EM would be able to negotiate another extension and would lose the plant. Recovering from that blow would be very difficult and I would put odds at 1/10.

In my opinion if EM gets to the second quarter of 2016 with no production funding I would expect the EM investors to demand EM sells off the remaining production equipment so they can cash out. This is also when I would expect to see this devolve into a mess of lawsuits as EM reservation holders try anything they can to also recover some money regardless of what the agreement says. The interesting thing to me at this point would be what happens to the intellectual property as EM could very well have a fully engineered and tested engine and vehicle with the engine likely being the most valuable asset. Of course I hope we do not have to experience this scenario at all as hopefully by this time vehicles will be rolling down the assembly line instead.

 

[Jeff Porter]

I would say realistically EM has about a year to get the money one way or another before they have to face the real possibility of losing the production facility. This is actually a long time so I believe they really need to continue what they are already doing which is work on various funding opportunities at once while also working to fund and complete the engine then move into pre-production vehicle testing as soon as possible. I believe that is the key to securing private funding and may even make a difference for the government as well.

If the government loan guarantee comes through any time this year I am at 10/10 EM will produce the vehicle next year with the timing of the loan determining the exact timing of production in 2016.
I would give EM about a 4/10 for receiving full funding via private sector investment as EM stands right now
I believe that rises to about 7/10 if EM can have several fully operational pre-production prototypes undergoing testing by about September of this year
That is a limited time window however as I would say that if the money has not happened by the end of 2015 the odds of EM's success drops in the first quarter of 2016 to 3/10
After the first quarter of 2016 I believe this plan is pretty much shot as I highly doubt EM would be able to negotiate another extension and would lose the plant. Recovering from that blow would be very difficult and I would put odds at 1/10.

In my opinion if EM gets to the second quarter of 2016 with no production funding I would expect the EM investors to demand EM sells off the remaining production equipment so they can cash out. This is also when I would expect to see this devolve into a mess of lawsuits as EM reservation holders try anything they can to also recover some money regardless of what the agreement says. The interesting thing to me at this point would be what happens to the intellectual property as EM could very well have a fully engineered and tested engine and vehicle with the engine likely being the most valuable asset. Of course I hope we do not have to experience this scenario at all as hopefully by this time vehicles will be rolling down the assembly line instead.

Thanks Hector!

I have a question for everyone, and this may be answered somewhere else. What happened to the statement made by EM that funding was lined up to get them to production, even if the ATVM loan doesn't come through? I thought we were told that with or without the loan, the funding was available from private investors. No sense in the private investors coming forward before the loan outcome happens, we had decided here on the forum.

Now that the delay is announced for production to 1st half 2016, the general statement from those of us on the forum, is that it's less than 50% chance that the private funding will come thru, which a week ago was 80-90%. Help me sort all of this out.