Reservations: 65341 As Of 6/20/2017

[Ty]

Is there any way to determine what the reservations are? In other words, I am currently all in for $100. I wonder how many are all in for 1000, 500, etc. I'm trying to decide whether to pony up the additional $900 to get my car sooner. It's a balancing act of spending the money vs getting my car sooner. I assume that with the reservation that I have, I should get my car by the end of 2015. But if I bumped up my reservation, how much sooner would I get my car?
I don't imagine my question can be answered, but thought I'd throw it out there.

In the past, the numbers showed that right at 25% were all in at the $1,000 level. Each release of numbers, we'd figure out who had the highest number and simple division gets the figure. There's no magic. Now, the number could be different now but I don't suppose it changed much. Figure 7,500 are all in at $1,000 and you'll be really close.

 

[Ty]

Hey CompTrex, here's a quick compilation of what I've seen over the months through 2014, based on my memory:

• Elio Motors has said that 90-95% of all reservations are the all-in (non-refundable) type
• Based on stats, folks here on the forum have said that roughly 25% of all reservations are the $1000 all-in; that was before the announcement of the end of the 50% bonus as of Sept 1
• You only get a definite number in line if you are a $1000 all-in person
• The order of reservationists getting their vehicle: all-in $1k, all-in $500, all-in $250, all-in $100, then $1000 refundable (want-in), $500 want-in, $250 want-in, and $100 want-in
• My guess is that there will be at least 12,000 of the $1k all-in folks when productions starts; there probably will be more;
• If production starts in Sept 2015, and that's a big if, my guess is that not all of the $1000 all-in folks will have taken possession of their vehicle by end of 2015; most are of the opinion that the ramp up will realistically be slow and steady; the goal is 250 per 8/hr shift, but it's possible it'll be Dec. 2015 before that happens; I could be wrong, we'll see
• There's also the installation of the options; if you have a vehicle with very few options, it's possible it would take much less time to install the options and thus get your vehicle sooner

With Elio saying that when you order a vehicle, they will have it ready for you the next day, I would assume that options won't take too long to install. Mostly, they'll probably be of the "bolt in the seats, plug in some connectors, slide in a different radio" variety.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

In the past, the numbers showed that right at 25% were all in at the $1,000 level. Each release of numbers, we'd figure out who had the highest number and simple division gets the figure. There's no magic. Now, the number could be different now but I don't suppose it changed much. Figure 7,500 are all in at $1,000 and you'll be really close.

L
love the math, so even if I was7500 (haven't yet gotten my #) at 400/ day should be about a month?

 

[Kewaneh]

...One thing to consider is getting the car a little later will allow for tweaks and adjustments in the assembly learning curve. Will the 2016 Elio have any improvements incorporated in the design...?....

I can't help but think that we may not have to wait for the following model year for improvements and updates. With exception to safety issues, most major auto manufacturers do only update their models on a yearly basis. Minor updates most years, major updates every few years. Mr. Elio has more than shown that his business model is far from that of a standard auto builder, with most business comparisons to Apple and their Apple stores.

That said, added to the fact that Elio only has one product, I could imagine platform updates - both minor & major - applied whenever was appropriate, mid-year, mid-month, mid-week. Similar, in a sense, to smartphone releases and updates. They happen (usually) when the product is ready, and are not calendar dependent. A calendar year, and consequently "model" year, would only be necessary for purposes of the Department of Motor Vehicles.

 

[Jeff Porter]

With Elio saying that when you order a vehicle, they will have it ready for you the next day, I would assume that options won't take too long to install. Mostly, they'll probably be of the "bolt in the seats, plug in some connectors, slide in a different radio" variety.

Yep, and you're talking after the first year of production, or at least after all reservations are filled, correct?

 

[Jeff Porter]

L
love the math, so even if I was7500 (haven't yet gotten my #) at 400/ day should be about a month?

Realistically, it's not quite that simple. The first week they may only have 10-100 vehicles be ready for options installed. Second week, may only have 50-300 done that week.

For my brain to wrap around things, I try to guess when 250 / day can be done consistently, whereas EM has said they have as a goal 250 per 8-hr shift, and to start they'll have one shift per day, 5 days per week.

So maybe during the 2nd month? Who knows. Anyway, at that point, you can calculate at roughly 1000 vehicles per week, maybe they've cranked out 500 to that point... so it would be 7 weeks from that imaginary date, maybe say Nov 15, that 7000 could be reached. A wild guess is then Feb 15 that # 7500 would appear.

 

[Ty]

202 per day, just as Z stated earlier. Here are the charts... I can't upload the excel files so I'm stuck with screen shots. Enjoy!

 

[Ty]

Hey zelio, where is Ty hanging out and where is the new graph chart, do Ya think? Anxious to see the graphic on today's numbers!!

I've put the numbers up in this thread... enjoy! Sorry, I'm slacking a little.

 

[Ty]

Updated chart attached..View attachment 2273

I like your chart much better than mine but I couldn't, for the life of me, figure out how to do the twin axis... with Daily sales on the right and Total on the left. I could probably figure it out... laziness...

 

[Ty]

Realistically, it's not quite that simple. The first week they may only have 10-100 vehicles be ready for options installed. Second week, may only have 50-300 done that week.

For my brain to wrap around things, I try to guess when 250 / day can be done consistently, whereas EM has said they have as a goal 250 per 8-hr shift, and to start they'll have one shift per day, 5 days per week.

So maybe during the 2nd month? Who knows. Anyway, at that point, you can calculate at roughly 1000 vehicles per week, maybe they've cranked out 500 to that point... so it would be 7 weeks from that imaginary date, maybe say Nov 15, that 7000 could be reached. A wild guess is then Feb 15 that # 7500 would appear.

Unless they are just throwing darts at a board, they should have an industrial engineer team involved like Southern Industrial Engineering, if they are still around, (my old team) and as long as the parts from suppliers hit the line, it shouldn't take very long at all for the line workers to learn their jobs. Now, I'd imagine there could be a little tweaking to the process but even a VERY broken process, if vetted by Industrial engineers, would be able to produce vehicles close to full speed. They shouldn't have any "Oh crap, you have to do that before this thingy can be assembled" kind of moments. But, even if they do, it shouldn't take long to iron out. I'll bet they'll be close to full rate within a couple of weeks. Yes, I understand what will go into that but I'm also keeping in mind that they'll have a few months before they start production where they can get everything lined up. It'll be fun to watch, however long it takes, that's for sure. I always loved watching my production line improvements when they first kicked off.