Ty
Elio Addict
It may not be active, but today when I get to my work computer, I'll update the charts that show the reservation levels.
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Reservations: 65341 As Of 6/20/2017
- Thread starter goofyone
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JNR
Elio Addict
More proof that the size of the population where the Elio is shown effects the reservation #'s. Reservation rate is still strong (just below 100/day) but lower than the NYC, Boston, and Chicago showings. No worries though, Portland, San Fran, LA all coming up.
Well, since you are our official statistics analyst (as far as I'm concerned), this next week should be interesting. It's been a bit quiet on Elio internal accomplishments. Probably since this engine and prototypes are in work and such big tasks. But today there was a release about the fleet sales division. (so funny, yesterday I said something about fleet sales being a big deal :-) ) My supposition is that there is a large build-up of fence sitters, waiting for things that give them confidence. And also the rate that people buy-in is affected by the state of the Elio as a project.
So I'm wondering if this last news about fleet sales will indicate that as Elio gets more accomplished, the reservation rate will jump up for a short time afterward. But also the average rate will go up, but how much? Can we guess?
The events most significant would be (lower to higher) Engine Done, Engine in a full pre-production prototype, First Car crash tested, first 20-40 cars built, solid signs of full funding, some visible signs of factory readiness, visible presence of Stores, and finally full pilot production in operation.
Anyway, right now we're on track for 40k reservations by EOY. As events I noted occur, the rate should go up, and the fence sitters will get in the game. So the big question is, is the threshold of 68K reservations obtainable before years end, or end of first quarter of 2015?
Oh yes, if they set a date to close the reservations program, there would be a jump as well. Because that would document it was never about the reservation money itself, duh!
Ty
Elio Addict
As an unofficial statistics analyst...
This first one is a monthly (or roughly monthly) look at Elio reservations.
This second chart is basically charting every single release of elio production numbers that I have gotten directly from their site or, in one case, from Z since I was away for a bit. The green line is a simple trend line for the overall data. If anyone wants the raw excel file, I can send that along. It's not very ground breaking as I tend to like a more simplistic look for this data. Enjoy.
This first one is a monthly (or roughly monthly) look at Elio reservations.
This second chart is basically charting every single release of elio production numbers that I have gotten directly from their site or, in one case, from Z since I was away for a bit. The green line is a simple trend line for the overall data. If anyone wants the raw excel file, I can send that along. It's not very ground breaking as I tend to like a more simplistic look for this data. Enjoy.
Ty
Elio Addict
LOL... I took no offense. Besides, KNR's graphs are more statistically representative of the Elio experience. I was asked to produce simple charts (actually, "could anyone please" was how the question was asked) and that's what I produce. It is simple and meant to give people a glance at the data without getting too into the weeds. Though, I'd love to see some regression models built showing the relation between reservations, show venue, and perhaps Elio Tech announcements. I'm especially curious about the next round of reservations as that last engine tech thing made me think that if I was on the fence, I would have jumped in after that. I wonder if that will translate into more reservations than, say, a favorable interview on a morning show.
Yes, I think there is some suppression from the contra talk out there, so people are now balancing their 'jump-in' decisions on what is talk vs what is real milestones. So I think at this point, a talk show is less important than a notable event. If nothing eventful happens for a long time, risk will seem higher, if something significant happens, then risk will seem partly nullified.
A year or two ago it was more about the car concept as a product, would people be interested. Now it's more about the risks of success or not. The interest is now dramatic. The trust is something that still needs to be earned.
Another element to note, the biggest target market are for people with limited money to spend. These should be the hardest to get any deposit out of. They would be highly invested in assessing risk.
So my supposition is, as Elio produces success that re-value risk, we could see a landslide (or not) of buyers who will reserve one. And that would likely be more in the low and mid level, compared to what the public did before. Just my opinion. Lordy I'm such a marketing curmudgeon., I just noticed.. :-)
Ty
Elio Addict
Perhaps... But, lets look at the reason to go all in... Lets say I waited till the last day to go all in for $100... What do I gain? my car would be produced last... basically days before the 2nd year model goes on sale. Unless there is some kind of price lock, I wouldn't bother risking $100 to gain one month. Many of us went all in to show support to Elio and some of us think that a large number of reservations makes Elio more attractive to investors and suppliers... Well, the limited-means people may not care so much about all that. Not to mention, $1,000 at those levels is nothing to sneeze at.Yes, I think there is some suppression from the contra talk out there, so people are now balancing their 'jump-in' decisions on what is talk vs what is real milestones. So I think at this point, a talk show is less important than a notable event. If nothing eventful happens for a long time, risk will seem higher, if something significant happens, then risk will seem partly nullified.
A year or two ago it was more about the car concept as a product, would people be interested. Now it's more about the risks of success or not. The interest is now dramatic. The trust is something that still needs to be earned.
Another element to note, the biggest target market are for people with limited money to spend. These should be the hardest to get any deposit out of. They would be highly invested in assessing risk.
So my supposition is, as Elio produces success that re-value risk, we could see a landslide (or not) of buyers who will reserve one. And that would likely be more in the low and mid level, compared to what the public did before. Just my opinion. Lordy I'm such a marketing curmudgeon., I just noticed..
So true. I think most people, who will be eventual buyers are first self interested in their own daily situations. I know four people, personal acquaintances, who want one if it was available today. But they won't put $100 into it today. One I know is just waiting until the risk fits his comfort level emotionally. He's keeping an eye on it. It's really hard to know how many are like that, but I'm figuring multiples of the count that have put money down up to now. Like more than 10 to 1. Just my guess.
I'll stay curious about this until after 2015 I'm sure. :-( From that point of view it's a cool experiment.
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GEC
Elio Fan
Don't limit yourself. SEE the world. Get a glass roof!