Reservations: 65341 As Of 6/20/2017

[JEBar]

the good news is, a year and a half from now, none of this will make much, if any, difference

 

[eliothegreat]

$400 average car x 231 cars a week = $92,400/week (including refundable); remove estimated refundable % then your still close to ~50k of inflow cash only

From Elio's statements, 15% or less of the reservations are non-refundable, and almost all of those are for $100. When you factor in the relatively small quantities of $250/$500 all-in deposits, Elio is still averaging right at $400 in non-refundable money for each reservation. You can think what you want, but I've tracked it pretty carefully for over a year and a half.

Again, I am discussing gross collections, not net cash flow.

 

[eliothegreat]

The vast majority of the roughly $65 million EM has raised up until now has been spent already on the development and marketing efforts up until the is point and is not just sitting in a bank account somewhere. While it would not surprise me if EM has a reserve fund it is highly doubtful that EM has enough of the money they need in place to kick off the E-series building and testing process as if they had that money they would be moving forward on that process.

If EM can find some money but struggles to cross the next fundraising step what I could see happening is the production of a single P5 or the refitting of the P4 into the P5. This was not a good option before as the engine was a key missing component however now that the engine is making its way through the testing process I can see EM doing this as a backup plan to draw more interest by showing off a vehicle which is much closer to final form even if this means a higher unit cost in building this as a one-off instead of as a group of 25.

Another point of agreement. Elio has spent most all of the money they have collected, and are still on the hook for ~$20M for the equipment as best as I can calculate.

Do you have any evidence that the engine is making its way through the testing process? All we have is one short video and Paul's indication that the engine was first fired up in March. There has been nothing but silence on the engine for 5 weeks now.

.........should be sitting somewhere?...........untouchable?! Holy crap! What if EM has borrowed against it with the idea of paying it back when production begins in 2016. My Lit Motors C-1 Reservation pre-order deposit was held by a private investment company and couldn't be touched or at least less likely to be touched.

I've inquired a few times over the past year and a half, but have never found any indication that Elio has disclosed who the escrow company is that is holding the refundable deposits. Is there any one on this board with a non-refundable deposit who knows what independent company is holding the money?

 

[Jeff Porter]

the good news is, a year and a half from now, none of this will make much, if any, difference

Well said my friend.

 

[Rickb]

Best case Good News scenario:.................

.........as I pull away from the curb in my shiny new 2016/17 Elio yelling out the window, "It really didn't matter!"

(I used the word matter, because none of this is making much, or any, difference here and now.)

 

[Jeff Porter]

Best case Good News scenario:.................

.........as I pull away from the curb in my shiny new 2016/17 Elio yelling out the window, "It really didn't matter!"

(I used the word matter, because none of this is making much, or any, difference here and now.)

Famous line from some comedy movie, I bet someone here will remember or I'll look it up later: "It JUST DOESN'T matter!"

Ah, there it is... Meatballs, 1979. Bill Murray.

 

[Hightech]

From Elio's statements, 15% or less of the reservations are non-refundable, and almost all of those are for $100. When you factor in the relatively small quantities of $250/$500 all-in deposits, Elio is still averaging right at $400 in non-refundable money for each reservation. You can think what you want, but I've tracked it pretty carefully for over a year and a half.

Again, I am discussing gross collections, not net cash flow.

Using those constants you found only really leaves 1 unknown, which to average $400/car, must be $225 for the other group. Using the maths it does lean higher towards 100k/week (89k actual)

- Maths used to find the unknown (yellow) to be $225.

- Changed the reservations to weekly amount

 

[eliothegreat]

Sorry, friend. The historical figure for $1k all in's is 35%, both from Paul's statements and from comparing SIL numbers to total reservations. Please correct your figures.

 

[AriLea]

Anyway, even if they collect over 20m over the program, it only maters to intermediate goals / accomplishments. The full funding is what is needed to enable production.

Yea, sure, it just doesn't mater (too much) what money is collected now. The total count of reservations may mater more, but just to set the first year production. I suppose the collections will help if it pays for engine and test vehicle completions. But again we have zero visibility into that.

 

[Hightech]

Sorry, friend. The historical figure for $1k all in's is 35%, both from Paul's statements and from comparing SIL numbers to total reservations. Please correct your figures.

Okay okay then you win, thats what I get for flipping through really fast @ work; that would bump it up to around 100k like you said. Can't fix it now since I am at home