Reservations: 65341 As Of 6/20/2017

[Neal]

Anybody think we can make 50,000th reservation this year? 10,000 / approx. 42 week left this year will be about 232.5 reservation per week. Is that possible?

Very doable if they hit some milestones. Show the engine, show some progress at the plant, get the loan, etc. there are A LOT of people who will put money down once they feel that production is inevitable. Not everyone wants to take a chance like most of us have.

 

[Ekh]

50K by the end of the year is doable but a good number of pretty strong "IF'S" would be involved ....

IF money is secured quickly

IF prototypes are quickly built and on the road

IF they the assembly line is shown to be ready for production

IF employees are hired and trained

To which I add:

IF newsworthy events occur and are appropriately publicized. It's the news coverage plus tour stops that bring the reservations in. NEWS, NEWS, NEWS. Not ads, not bulletin boards, not their own website (well, of course, the website pretty important), but NEWS.

IF gas prices bounce back up over $3.00 / gallon. If gas prices reach $5.00 gallon, they'll have their funding the next day. That's illogical, because acting on today's gas prices in making a 6-year decision is nuts, but the American public is not rational, is extremely fickle, and has no knowledge of history -- it's barely even taught in school these days. So a bump in gas prices will, IMO, equal a bump in reservations.

 

[goofyone]

I believe it is pretty much a given that we will see a lot more news as this year progresses as it is only February folks!

I think a lot of people have gotten down over the news early in the year and have forgotten to look at the bigger picture of just how early we are in the year and realistically just how much time EM has left to complete their project as there is still a long time for them to complete each milestone between now and the middle of 2016.

Reservation numbers are almost certain to go up a good bit this year. It may have been delayed but we just around the corner from the running engine being unveiled. We have NASCAR races and Auto Shows coming up on the tour this year. EM really does not need that much money to complete the vehicle development program and already have the funding programs underway to raise this money so they should be able to raise this easily in the first half of this year. This means we will be getting a lot more news as testing gets underway and should be in full swing during the second half of this year. All this will bring in more reservations.


Now to try and keep expectations in check:

EM has told us that for various reasons funding will come in stages so while they are undoubtedly seeking commitments for larger funding right now they are mainly seeking funding to complete the vehicle development program. If anyone is expecting EM to say they have $180 million in funding lined up sometime in the next few months they are likely to be disappointed unless the ATVM loan is approved. Being given all the money at once is not what EM is seeking at this time which is realistic and smart on their part as this is also not generally how private investors operate. Hopefully EM will be able to tell us when they have the money to complete the vehicle development program but even better than telling us is getting everything built and into testing.

I would also not hold my breath on seeing much action in the Shreveport plant getting underway before about six months out from production. While some jobs will likely become available six months or so out the major line worker hiring push is not expected before about three months out. This is when EM has said we will see things happen so if things get pushed up and we see things happen earlier that is great however expecting more is simply setting an unrealistic expectation.

 

[Thomas Maule]

Ill go out on a limb and say Elio will hit 50,000 in 6-8 months...

 

[Neal]

I predict we cross the 40,000 threshold by February 13th.

Missed by a week or two (presumably)

 

[mag44]

If they get 40K by the end of March they will be lucky.
Only ones signing up now are the ones that don't know about all the delays.

 

[outsydthebox]

If they get 40K by the end of March they will be lucky.
Only ones signing up now are the ones that don't know about all the delays.

I disagree!

 

[NSTG8R]

If they get 40K by the end of March they will be lucky.
Only ones signing up now are the ones that don't know about all the delays.

Not so fast Mag44. I 'initially' found out about the Elio on a Saturday in July '14. Did a solid day of research. Found out about the delays its had since '08. Liked what I saw, and it's potential gas savings [I have a 84 mile round-trip to work], and dropped 1k the following Monday. I don't have the exact number of reservations back then [I'm sure G1 would know], but I believe it was below 20k. So in approx. 6 months, it's nearly doubled. I'm betting on a big surge when the tax refunds come rolling in for people. IMHO.

 

[JEBar]

If they get 40K by the end of March they will be lucky.
Only ones signing up now are the ones that don't know about all the delays.

I'm sure that the delays do influence some folks .... the reality is, in spite of little positive, recent news and with some folks contently spewing negative assumptions, they have averaged over 50 reservations per day for the last two weeks .... at that rate they should go over 40K later this month .... bottom line, the company is alive and kicking

 

[outsydthebox]

....I'm betting on a big surge when the tax refunds come rolling in for people. IMHO.

I agree! I plan on upping my current all in, and going all in on a second Elio!