Latest On Production Date: Q4 2016

[Ekh]

Thanks. I didn't know EM had an IAV engine in their possession and recalled that first engine was tested in the IAV test facilities to freezeup/destruction.

I don't know for sure that EM does have the IAV test motor in their possession. But we never hears any detail about test results, or that it was actually run to destruction per original plan. They will be doing endurance testing on the E-cars, and may have had the wits to realize that a prototype with an actual running engine was more important than destructively testing Engine #1. if I were PE, I'd have said, "Gee, if we bust this thing, we're going to be way delayed with P5 or other P cars. Hmmmm. Maybe we'd be better off saving it for better use." But -- I'm not PE!

But if P5 is under construction, and there are clouds in the wether over IAV, where's the P5 engine coming from? I think it's Engine #1, saved from the horrible death of oil starvation. Just a guess.

 

[Ekh]

What is the "real stuff" that you speak of?
We know that Elio passed phase 1. That was the qualification stage.
(I think that was in October or November as I recall.)
We have no idea what or where in phase 2 Elio is.
And phase 3 is supposed to be final negotiations.
Sorry, but much as I would like to be able to, I just don't trust Washington, DC bureaucrats.

Real stuff would be actual EPA style mileage testing with the production-based chassis and body and the actual engine / tranny combination. That would be the real stuff, all right.

 

[WilliamH]

Real stuff would be actual EPA style mileage testing with the production-based chassis and body and the actual engine / tranny combination. That would be the real stuff, all right.

P5 would seem to give you that. Proto engine, Aisin transmission/transaxel, Elio spec chassis. Put it on a chassis dyno and there are the results. Except EPA doesn't have a test program for 84 MPG. All they have is their standard program. ------->
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/fe_test_schedules.shtml <------ . Don't know if it would test that high. And the test really appears to be setup for an automatic transmission

 

[Kuda]

P5 would seem to give you that. Proto engine, Aisin transmission/transaxel, Elio spec chassis. Put it on a chassis dyno and there are the results. Except EPA doesn't have a test program for 84 MPG. All they have is their standard program. ------->
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/fe_test_schedules.shtml <------ . Don't know if it would test that high. And the test really appears to be setup for an automatic transmission

As I recall acceptance criteria
is 75 mpg.
Mobile-friendly - Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (ATVM) Loan Program is a $25 billion direct loan ... the program's coverage to include high mileage (75 mpg equivalent) two- and three-wheeled vehicles.

 

[Rob Croson]

William, overall I agree that they're doing just what every cash-starved startup does. The thing that bothers me is the horrific interest they're paying to RACER trust and a couple of others. I've forgotten the precise details, and am too lazy at the moment to go look it up again, but I do remember reading the disclosures and saying "OMG, this is as bad as credit card debt and for much larger amounts!" And all because they missed their first payment. OUCH

Yeah, 18% interest to Racer Trust on a $23m principal is pretty heavy. That's a rough one to shoulder.

 

[John Painter]

So production is closer due to clearer understanding of finances because $30,000+ rather than the $25k expected and...that pushes production back 6 months? uh what?

Yes, production is closer as the E series vehicles will verify computer models. Starting companies on this scale and especially in this industry are exceptionally capital intensive, so just because this round of funding will allow the E series to be built does not mean they have the capital to start production, though succes with the E vehicles may open up new funding to production. Which is what I thin EM was attempting in 2013 and just now catching up (timeline) with where they were back then.

 

[John Painter]

no they will be raising the $25 million the $30 m crowdfunding indicates they can get. That is only enough to build the 25 test cars; nothing to do with actual production other than completing a needed step.

That's the obvious. What is not obvious is whether the E series, might open EM up to new funding.

 

[Rickb]

EM made statements prior to and during the ATVM Loan application process that they had funding for the P5-E25 Builds and the anticipated production startup without the ATVM Loan funds. EM's lack of funding, inability to meet the Milestone P & E Builds, and production target dates is more likely the reason for the ATVM delay. Also, proof that the loan can be repaid which seemed more likely earlier in the application process.

EM's delays may be the logical reason for the DOE's delay. Let's not put all the blame on our friends at the DOE. The DOE could still approve the ATVM loan if EM gets a private infusion of venture cash and the P and E's built. The ball is in EM's court in my opinon.

 

[Ekh]

As I recall acceptance criteria
is 75 mpg.
Mobile-friendly - Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (ATVM) Loan Program is a $25 billion direct loan ... the program's coverage to include high mileage (75 mpg equivalent) two- and three-wheeled vehicles.

I they've applied for something a bit different: a $184 million dollar loan guarantee, not a direct-from-the-feds chunk of money. Since DOE found their application complete and correct, the loan guarantee is part of the ATVM program and is OK with DOE. They don't sit on an incorrect application for 9 months. I think, and this is only opinion, that DOE is giving Elio a chance to get their proofs in order: technical proofs AND proof that they won't need another loan from this program to stay in business. The pre-orders make a huge difference here, as does private placement, section 506C, and Reg A+ (crowd funding). All that money adds up to saying: if we can get to manufacturing, we can make this work.

The more solid the proof, the more likely the loan guarantee. And if THAT comes through, private investors will definitely appear, because the risk is so minimized. So while we're all gnashing our teeth, it's probably for the best that DOE hasn't yet ruled on Elio's application.

 

[Kuda]

I they've applied for something a bit different: a $184 million dollar loan guarantee, not a direct-from-the-feds chunk of money. Since DOE found their application complete and correct, the loan guarantee is part of the ATVM program and is OK with DOE. They don't sit on an incorrect application for 9 months. I think, and this is only opinion, that DOE is giving Elio a chance to get their proofs in order: technical proofs AND proof that they won't need another loan from this program to stay in business. The pre-orders make a huge difference here, as does private placement, section 506C, and Reg A+ (crowd funding). All that money adds up to saying: if we can get to manufacturing, we can make this work.

The more solid the proof, the more likely the loan guarantee. And if THAT comes through, private investors will definitely appear, because the risk is so minimized. So while we're all gnashing our teeth, it's probably for the best that DOE hasn't yet ruled on Elio's application.

Couldn't have said that better,
Glad I didn't have to