July 31st, 2017 - Tick Tock...

[3wheelin]

$499,000,000 divided by $1,000 profit per vehicle equals 499,000 vehicles.
At 250,000 vehicles produced per year, it takes 1.99 years to pay off the initial investment and start showing a profit.
Than it is 250,000 vehicles per year, producing $1,000 profit (each) per year, for a total of $250,000,000 profit per year.
Is my math wrong? I have been known to make mistakes.

You are absolutely right pistonboy! Didn't I say I'm not good at math???

 

[3wheelin]

Visionaries sets their standards high and beyond what average human being can see and for the long haul! So give it time and money and it can happen! But I'm not waiting so my grand kids can enjoy it and not me! Having said that, I'm still waiting for a mass produced "flying car" in my measly budget! (I'm getting tired of flying my model airplanes, helis, drones, etc. )

 

[slinches]

Just to give everyone an idea of the size of the market (because that seems to keep being called into question), there are approximately 156 million people in the US who are employed. Of those, ~85% drive to work (~133 million) and 75% of them commute alone. That leaves ~100million people who commute alone to work. If they only sell to the top 10% of those solo commuters who would save the most by using a low cost, high efficiency commuter vehicle, then there are 10 million in potential sales ready and waiting. They only need to convert 2.5% of that ultra-prime market per year to hit the 250k sales number. Considering that there's very little competition in the same value range as the Elio, that seems like a rather easy number to hit.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

Just to give everyone an idea of the size of the market (because that seems to keep being called into question), there are approximately 156 million people in the US who are employed. Of those, ~85% drive to work (~133 million) and 75% of them commute alone. That leaves ~100million people who commute alone to work. If they only sell to the top 10% of those solo commuters who would save the most by using a low cost, high efficiency commuter vehicle, then there are 10 million in potential sales ready and waiting. They only need to convert 2.5% of that ultra-prime market per year to hit the 250k sales number. Considering that there's very little competition in the same value range as the Elio, that seems like a rather easy number to hit.

Somehow, we/they gotta get past that which we love, but seems weird to many.

 

[Elio Amazed]

Just to give everyone an idea of the size of the market (because that seems to keep being called into question), there are approximately 156 million people in the US who are employed. Of those, ~85% drive to work (~133 million) and 75% of them commute alone. That leaves ~100million people who commute alone to work. If they only sell to the top 10% of those solo commuters who would save the most by using a low cost, high efficiency commuter vehicle, then there are 10 million in potential sales ready and waiting. They only need to convert 2.5% of that ultra-prime market per year to hit the 250k sales number. Considering that there's very little competition in the same value range as the Elio, that seems like a rather easy number to hit.

Yeah well... It don't work that way either. It may seem like it will when you look at it through Elio colored glasses, but...
I realize you didn't say there were 100 million (EDIT: insert "new" here) cars sold in the US last year, but I just thought I'd clarify for some who might have taken it that way.
There were 17+ million cars sold in the US last year and it broke the all-time record.

Many of us walk around muttering to ourselves, "It should've worked. It's so obvious. Why don't all those people get this?"

I like the way RU put it.

 

[slinches]

EA, how many used cars were sold last year and how many new cars would have been sold if they were available for under $8000?

The numbers I found were somewhere around 17M new and about 30M used for 2016. That means 250k would only represent 0.5% market share of the 47 million total vehicle sales per year. With the Elio's low price, it's not just competing against new car sales. And that doesn't even account for the "AND" car market since they wouldn't show up in existing sales numbers.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

"how many used cars were sold last year..." good question, how many autocycles were sold?
It's gonna be a jump of faith for folks to buy an enclosed 3 wheel motorcycle, when the mind-set is four wheels. The old news that a helmet would be required, has been mostly been resolved, but thoughts linger in peoples minds. The E "safety rating" will not be that of any legal four wheel car, the no rear window will alarm folks who have never driven a motorcycle. We of the faith cannot allow ourselves that so many will spend 10k (guessing OTD), for a machine with no "track record" :-). I don't know the stats but it took years for Americans to even consider smaller cars? The Vega and Corvair, didn't help, and it took piles of (great) expensive advertising to sell VW's. If parts keep falling off riding around NYC The E will continue to be a "damaged" brand
Although many cars take one person at a time to work, those folks" financially challenged" need the extra space for family. Remember when The E was to be The &-????

 

[slinches]

What are you arguing for RU? Just because it might be difficult and hasn't been done before that no one should try?

Yes, it's possible that EM could fail to execute on their plan. That's always a possibility with a start up, but what has changed in the basic market and business case that would make it not worth the attempt? We bought into the concept for good reasons. Let's not forget that.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

It wasn't intended as an argument, just my humble view. I for one will never forget the concept, and truly hope it's P.E. that is a major player.
We (on this forum) are very few, and perhaps there just might be some difficulties sharing our enthusiasm with the "general public" was the thought.

As a personal experience, as a vegan, I went on a "vegan cruise", they brought on their own chefs, had workshops, etc. and one night at dinner, a friend expressed the observation how the concept of a plant based diet was gaining traction, based on the 1k folks on the voyage, my comment - we are just a speck on the ocean, in relation to the U.S. population, and to extrapolate anything from our small sample is a stretch. I feel the same about three wheel transportation.
The total votes on the survey above speaks volumes

 

[slinches]

I get that EM is rapidly approaching a critical fork in the road right now. And it can be difficult to keep the focus on the positives when facing such a clear make or break scenario. But if we, the earliest supporters and adopters, don't maintain our enthusiasm, why would anyone else? Why would investors put their money in something when the core supporters have mostly bailed and are talking like it won't happen?

We shouldn't deceive ourselves either. It's always been as likely to fail as succeed. But we need to help share and spread the dream that we see so clearly. Now more than ever, we should be out there letting people know what a great thing could be achieved if we had a little collective support. We can either help make this happen or be left wondering if a little more support could have pushed it over the edge toward success.