Even producing 250 per day puts production at 1,250 per week 533/day and 2,666 is the number they'd be able to produce on a single shift running at the old 54 second speed on the line), two months of production will take them through the first 10,000 Reservations!
10K could prove to be a good estimate depending on when the ride and drive events actually begin. EM expects to start up a bit slower than 250/shift as they make sure everything is going smoothly. What several of us have recently heard from EM about production ramp up is that they expect to produce under 3K the first month with a per shift average around 150. The second month they expect about 250/shift average for about 5K total for the month and in the third month EM expects to average about 350/day which is about 7K total for the month. This puts us at about 15K vehicles for the first 3 months of production which are the most likely to be affected if ride and drive events are not available until production begins.
Even at 15K vehicles the majority of the expected 60K+ first year reservations will have the opportunity to attend a ride and drive event somewhere before they must order their vehicles. Also most reservation holders will have the benefit of reading all about the vehicle from others who receive their vehicles early on in the production run. Anyone with a production number right now is also unfortunately squarely in danger area and will just have to see how the ride and drive event timing works out.
There is a possible solution I can think of for these early reservation holders. If EM can provide the tour team with even a single automatic equipped E-series test drive vehicle about 4-5 months out from production they could run a very limited series of test drive events with specific priority given to early reservations holders with reservations which will be built in the first 3 months. More vehicles would of course be helpful, especially a manual transmission to compare to the automatic, however everyone can drive an automatic and many people have concerns about the AMT so that wold be the one to have if there is only a single vehicle.