Financing Elio Motors Development And Production

[goofyone]

And even with the old, Geo motor they have already exceeded 80mpg. The new engine will just be icing on the cake.

I don't think so. The new motor is close though.

As Ty correctly points out the old Geo Motors has not actually exceeded 80 MPG. Instead EM has told us that their simulations show that the final vehicle configuration with the IAV engine should be able to achieve a little over 81 MPG on the EPA test. While this is all done virtually these MPG simulations are very well understood and very accurate to the point that they are in common use by auto and motorcycle manufacturers all over the world. The Elio vehicle computer model should be quite good at this point as EM has gone through several generations of prototype vehicle builds so they should have accurate numbers for the vehicle design and the IAV engine may be untested however it is actually designed to be detuned for MPG which leaves IAV some margin to work with so even if they fall a bit short in the overall design they will very likely still be within the window that EM needs.

 

[Rickb]

The truth is that many of us could likely write a well reasoned paragraph supporting EM and another paragraph rejecting EM on each one of those points so ultimately I do not believe any of those points really matter. Instead I believe that if the politicians and/or political appointees who run the show in DC like the Elio Motors concept and believe Elio Motors is capable of producing the vehicle they will write the loan acceptance in such a way so it appears that EM has those items covered. If they do not like the concept and/or do not believe that EM is capable of delivering on their promises then they will write a rejection in which EM fails to meet one or more of those items.

If it boils down to politicians liking the concept the ATVM will be approved without a doubt. Who could not like the Elio! I'm speculating the announcement as early as Valentines Day.

 

[satx]

The bureaucrats who make the ATVM loan decisions certainly look at the probability of the ATVM load being repaid (like Tesla, not like Fiskars.Solyndra). They may have the same doubts about EM's profits (to repay the loan) as investors might have.

The state, national automobile dealer associations fight Tesla's direct-to-customer sales model in their states (note: most dealers give to Repug politicians to maintain entry barriers and block the venerated "free market") because they make so much of their income from warranty services, repairs (and recalls) with very little (5%-8%) margin on new car sales. "show me the money" in the EM business. profits to EM? Pep boys? other?

(EVs are so simple, reliable compared to the 1000s of parts in an internal combustion vehicle that maintenance revenues are effectively, comparatively zero. And battery breakthroughs in the next few years will have EVs affordable to 10Ms. Replacement battery costs are down 80% from a few years ago. EVs will eventually, definitely "disrupt" the current vehicle industry, even with EVs sold through the current dealer industry)

 

[AriLea]

...Replacement battery costs are down 80% from a few years ago. EVs will eventually, definitely "disrupt" the current vehicle industry,...

Do you have a link to suitable batteries that are that cheep? And not Lead acid?
Range, longevity, fast recharge speed also need to show in products before the EV will really challenge ICE drive across the board.
While Elio is a low cost product, ev competition would not affect Elio sales much. However, there is zero reason that an EV Elio version can't become a reality. I'm sure there will be a few dozen Elio/EV conversions by private owners even during the first year of production.
The best conversions will still cost almost as much as a new Elio, unless battery prices are dirt cheap, then you are looking at half the price.

 

[satx]

Do you have a link to suitable batteries that are that cheep? And not Lead acid?
Range, longevity, fast recharge speed also need to show in products before the EV will really challenge ICE drive across the board.
While Elio is a low cost product, ev competition would not affect Elio sales much. However, there is zero reason that an EV Elio version can't become a reality. I'm sure there will be a few dozen Elio/EV conversions by private owners even during the first year of production.
The best conversions will still cost almost as much as a new Elio, unless battery prices are dirt cheap, then you are looking at half the price.

I heard the 80% reduction in battery price on NPR, the transcription isn't on their site, yet.

Automobiles and elio are identical markets, so autos moving to EVs won't influence Elio as much as it will impact gas/diesel autos. duh

The breakthroughs in batteries will be in energy density, weight, size, and/or recharge speed. There's just too much battery research right now, esp in nanotech, to think the none of it will get out of the labs.

And all the big mfrs are going with FCVs in the next couple years, while hybrids appear to be flattening.

 

[AriLea]

This webpage below appears to be the current state of cost-to-own for the various drive types including the FCV
http://blog.luxresearchinc.com/blog...ll-vehicle-fcv-showdown-the-biggest-loser-is/

Basically, this year ICE and HEV (Prius) are the logical choices.

 

[Kuda]

I thought Comau employees were actually going to be assembling the vehicles for the first few months with Elio employees working alongside them until they have the production routine down, then they'll take over.

This has been stated for the 'Engine' build, as for the rest
of the vehicle this will be structured by what ever team Gino
puts together to train the initial line hires.......

 

[Kuda]

Computer simulations are perfectly acceptable according to the ATVM program guidelines and combining those with the current plant plans from Comau, the existence of the plant itself and reusable plant equipment, and the chassis mule prototypes already constructed and EM very likely has the bases covered. Having the actual pre-production vehicles would most definitely not hurt, even if not required, however likely even more helpful is the running engine. The DOE, and other 'green' oriented people in the administration, are likely to care a lot less about the production line details than they do care about actually meeting, or exceeding, the fuel efficiency target.

Agreed. I do think the 84mpg target ,if met, (or close) is strong
justification for granting the Loan. But the business attorneys
involved will want 'assurance' that the units 'can' & 'will' be built.

 

[Rickb]

Agreed. I do think the 84mpg target ,if met, (or close) is strong
justification for granting the Loan. But the business attorneys
involved will want 'assurance' that the units can & will be built.

The Elio can only be assured if or when the loan is approved.

 

[Rickb]

Do you have a link to suitable batteries that are that cheep? And not Lead acid?
Range, longevity, fast recharge speed also need to show in products before the EV will really challenge ICE drive across the board.
While Elio is a low cost product, ev competition would not affect Elio sales much. However, there is zero reason that an EV Elio version can't become a reality. I'm sure there will be a few dozen Elio/EV conversions by private owners even during the first year of production.
The best conversions will still cost almost as much as a new Elio, unless battery prices are dirt cheap, then you are looking at half the price.

I got a cost estimate to retrofit my Elio to electric. Drive train, battery pack, and labor: $35K