Elio Crowdfunding

[bowers baldwin]

 

[AriLea]

It's beginning to look to me like EM is holding out on updates to eventually make at least a triple-wammy announcement soon, inside of the next couple weeks.
(1) 44k (or 45k) reservations, (2) 25mil in A+ funding, (3) Something about overall funding, possibly a schedule for production (ok a long shot there) (4) progress on the P5, install of engine or engine test? (5) Start of, or progress on the P6-P25.

PS, based on b-b's posting above, I estimate 2.5days left to reaching the 25m goal.

 

[Rickb]

Oh boy, a sizeable level of thinking, estimating and guess work has gone on in the last 24 hours. Yep, I'm in that boat too.

We tend to forget EM has sized all of this up. The cash flow and capital outlay IS the principle business plan issue in automotive startups.
EM does not like to detail such things to the public. There is always a combination of cash up front and back door deals and loans involved. EM has admitted to requiring upfront 240m total of which almost 100m will have been collected when the A+ program concludes and is done-done.

EM has not, and will not let us know how much goes directly towards production start up or the other cost areas. Those all are a huge black-box to us. But again, certainly EM has calculated all this out and made, and going to make their back-door contracts and loans to work it all out. The banks are more than willing to make money connecting a 60day-90day delay in delivery vs payment receipts etc. Who do you think will benefit from those credit card programs? Not just EM. Certainly a bank has already been engaged as a package deal.

So of course it doesn't add up for many of us. That's because we, in the open public, don't have all the numbers and deals available to calculate it all.

You seem certain that EM has this all sized up when Planning is Guessing. lol

 

[AriLea]

You seem certain that EM has this all sized up when Planning is Guessing. lol

YOU ARE really silly. Duh, yes they have sized up their planning. NO, they are not locked down. But to suggest they haven't calculated out what things cost and at least a couple paths to get there? Heck yes.

Yes, something is left to do, acquire or connect with. But only and idiot would suggest they don't know what that is.

 

[Ekh]

I agree too, but don't think it's the DOE dragging it's feet. I think the DOE is patiently waiting on EM for some results as we all are. The DOE has potential to be our best friend after they test drive the hot red P5 in D.C..

Hope you're right.

 

[Ekh]

It's beginning to look to me like EM is holding out on updates to eventually make at least a triple-wammy announcement soon, inside of the next couple weeks.
(1) 44k (or 45k) reservations, (2) 25mil in A+ funding, (3) Something about overall funding, possibly a schedule for production (ok a long shot there) (4) progress on the P5, install of engine or engine test? (5) Start of, or progress on the P6-P25.

PS, based on b-b's posting above, I estimate 2.5days left to reaching the 25m goal.

I estimate this afternoon, prior to 6:00 pm ext

 

[JEBar]

It's beginning to look to me like EM is holding out on updates to eventually make at least a triple-wammy announcement soon, inside of the next couple weeks.
(1) 44k (or 45k) reservations, (2) 25mil in A+ funding, (3) Something about overall funding, possibly a schedule for production (ok a long shot there) (4) progress on the P5, install of engine or engine test? (5) Start of, or progress on the P6-P25.

PS, based on b-b's posting above, I estimate 2.5days left to reaching the 25m goal.

seems reasonable .... 10:21AM on 7-27-15 the counter on EM's website remains 43829 and the crowd funding is showing 99%

 

[AriLea]

You seem certain that EM has this all sized up when Planning is Guessing. lol

I probably reacted to this definition, a characterization really, about 'guessing'.
Inherently, planning IS guessing. It's reasoned and risk estimated guessing. But it is an unjustified derogatory statement to characterize that as guessing.
By the same token, stating you will get up tomorrow at 5am, that is also -guessing-. It is misleading to quantify it that way.

 

[Ekh]

I probably reacted to this definition, a characterization really, about 'guessing'.
Inherently, planning IS guessing. It's reasoned and risk estimated guessing. But it is an unjustified derogatory statement to characterize that as guessing.
By the same token, stating you will get up tomorrow at 5am, that is also -guessing-. It is misleading to quantify it that way.

AriLea, at risk of going OT, I'm going to quibble with you. Guessing is predicting what will happen with no basis in theory or experience to justify the guess. Soothsayers and intestine-readers guess. What I identified earlier as WAG (wild-ass guess) means a guess with some information behind it, but a lot of room for error. Planning is the attempt to influence the outcome so that "guesses" become more narrow and more likely.

Of course, circumstance has a way of knocking guesses off-target -- and so does a sudden influx of new knowledge, so plans change to accommodate new knowledge or new circumstances. This is why Dwight Eisenhower, no slouch at planning, said "Plans are useless. Planning's essential."

Here endeth the digression.

 

[AriLea]

Little heated this morning, had to watch the 3year-old for half the day yesterday. I envy the energy that little tiger has! DO-NOT do that to your grandfather!

Anyway the low ball estimate for 25mil is 5k average / hr, high ball is 10k/hr. We've been doing 10k since last Friday.
So -best guess- 32 hours from now at the soonest, more or less. ( yes am hoping it's today )