Arcimoto

[Rickb]

Both my SRK & Elio reservations are locked in. Let the horse race gamble to which startup crosses the finish line to production officialy start now.

For me it could be a win, win.

 

[Rickb]

GO A-TEAM!

 

[Jeff Porter]

I put in my reservation... I must be a masochist...

LOL! Hang in there Ken...

 

[Jeff Porter]

This may have been discussed but I just saw this on their website, in the FAQ's:

Q: How do I know the production date won’t get pushed out?

A: Bringing any vehicle from a clean sheet to full series production is a non-trivial task – we applaud the efforts of everyone in this space to make it happen. Feel free to sign up for our newsletter on www.arcimoto.com to stay current on our go-to-production efforts. It’s not just Elio.
Almost every new vehicle startup, including Tesla, had underestimated the amount of time and effort to bring vehicles from the drawing board into production. Putting down a $100 fully refundable deposit is just a simple way to reserve your place in line and allow Arcimoto to get a sense for market demand in advance of production. Believe us that nobody is more eager for us to get the SRK to market than we are.

 

[Jeff Porter]

So Arcimoto's plan: find a factory site sometime in the next 3 months, build the factory, and begin delivering vehicles by end of 2016.

*spits water out of mouth in a fine mist*

Say what...?

 

[Rickb]

So Arcimoto's plan: find a factory site sometime in the next 3 months, build the factory, and begin delivering vehicles by end of 2016.

*spits water out of mouth in a fine mist*

Say what...?

I think it's actually doable for the A-Team! Arcimoto has put most all of their angel investor funding into concept vehicle development and production, not marketing. They are currently fabricating their own parts, Arcimoto employees are building the Gen 8 prototypes in their own shop facilities, no debt, no real funding issues, and reservation numbers have reached the 500 mark ($7-8 Million in pre-order sales) in a short time since they started touring the Gen 8's a couple months ago. No touring prototypes until the Gen 8 reveal ride and drive events. Also interesting is no serious marketing beyond social media. I'm guessing precious funding spent on advertising only when there is an actual SRK to buy and drive home.

Start small generating sales revenue, create interest, and scale production over a reasonable time frame. A much preferred business model for a no risk simple $100 refundable all in reservationist. Can you imagine how fast Arcimoto would ramp up production if they had $300 Million in pre-sales revenue?

Now if they don't spring build the 50 test pilot SRK's as 'promised'( planned) for early summer testing, then no way can their 2016 production schedule be met.

 

[Rickb]

RUCRAYZE, Since I'm unable to PM you, if you happen to read this and are CRAYZE enough to have interest in the SRK, have you considered attending a SRK drive and ride event if/when the Arcimoto Team tour stops in the Seattle area? They are scheduled in Portland March 5th and may be headed your way soon after. I would value your opinion if you happen to see/experience the SRK in person. I should know soon the exact date/location. No interest works too, but in that case............... nevermind. Thanks! Rick

 

[Sethodine]

The thing is, Arcimoto and Elio have very different production philosophies as well as marketing strategies.

Arcimoto is starting with a small production run, with the goal of selling all the bikes they produce, then folding that money into increasing production and marketing.

Elio is starting with mass-production, in order to reap the benefits of economies-of-scale. This means that to stay afloat financially, they will need to have enough people ready to buy their car in year-one if they want to be able to fund a year-two. With a production estimate of 250,000 Elios a year, and only 1/5 of that in reservations, they need to begin marketing well in advance of production. The announcement of TV advertising has me really excited, because it tells me that EM is feeling confident about Q4 2016 for production.

 

[Rickb]

I agree very different business models. The big difference for me is Arcimoto's simple $100 refundable reservation deposit for a place in line philosophy. No risk to future owners, no disgruntled reservationists, no haters, no negative blog comments that I'm aware of after 8 years in development with the exception of a negative comment or two from anti-EV anything mentalities. Now that they have finally started touring and marketing the Gen 8 the 500 pre-orders may likely grow into the thousands........rather quickly by the time production begins and or scale quickly after production starts.

At some point a startup has to start production or fail or start production and fail in case of no future demand for their concept vehicles after they hit the streets. A startup can't crystal ball ass.u.me that pre-order market demand will equal their full production capacity in the first year of production or that demand will remain steady and/or increase in the second year of production or beyond. There are no guarantees in business.

 

[floydv]

I agree very different business models. The big difference for me is Arcimoto's simple $100 refundable reservation deposit for a place in line philosophy. No risk to future owners, no disgruntled reservationists, no haters, no negative blog comments that I'm aware of after 8 years in development with the exception of a negative comment or two from anti-EV anything mentalities. Now that they have finally started touring and marketing the Gen 8 the 500 pre-orders may likely grow into the thousands........rather quickly by the time production begins and or scale quickly after production starts.

At some point a startup has to start production or fail or start production and fail in case of no future demand for their concept vehicles after they hit the streets. A startup can't crystal ball ass.u.me that pre-order market demand will equal their full production capacity in the first year of production or that demand will remain steady and/or increase in the second year of production or beyond. There are no guarantees in business.

Sethodine points out that they have two different business models, and you acknowledged that. However, I think what's implicit in the two business models is that they dictate two different approaches to getting capital -- what's appropriate for Arcimoto isn't necessarily appropriate for Elio and vice versa. Their approaches (e.g., level of reservation deposits) are not interchangeable.

Arcimoto's approach is to start small, and it will likely stay a small, niche product for a niche market in the foreseeable future. Elio's approach is "all in" -- they are swinging for the fence, looking to actually make a dent in both the new and used car markets. Such an approach is based on and requires mass deployment and high volume production, which in turn requires much higher levels of capital than Arcimoto. You can't build that level of mass production in a start-up shop; it requires an actual factory, and actual factories require large investments. And therefore Elio's approach requires a higher level of commitment from potential buyers in order to generate the higher levels of interest and investment needed.

I like to think of it this way: Elio's approach amounts to a much bigger "boulder" that needs more energy to overcome initial inertia and resistance going uphill in the American car market, whereas Arcimoto's approach allows it to start with a much smaller "rock" that takes a lot less energy to get moving. But by the same token, it's much more difficult to turn a rock into a boulder.

It's not a matter of which business model is "better" -- each approach serves the model the company has taken, and it doesn't seem productive to compare the two approaches. I'd like them both to succeed, if for no other reason than to see more three-wheeled vehicles of ALL kinds on the road. This doesn't have to be a zero-sum game where one three wheeler succeeds at the expense of the other.